A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.

Doubly spectral stochastic finite element method (DSSFEM) for random field problems

Uncertainties in complex dynamic systems play an important role in the prediction of a dynamic response in the mid- and high-frequency ranges. For distributed parameter systems, parametric uncertainties can be represented by random fields leading to stochastic partial differential equations. Over the past two decades, the spectral stochastic finite-element method has been developed to discretize the random fields and solve such problems. On the other hand, for deterministic distributed parameter linear dynamic systems, the spectral finite-element method has been developed to efficiently solve the problem in the frequency domain. In spite of the fact that both approaches use spectral decomposition (one for the random fields and the other for the dynamic displacement fields), very little overlap between them has been reported in literature. In this paper, these two spectral techniques are unified with the aim that the unified approach would outperform any of the spectral methods considered on their own. An exponential autocorrelation function for the random fields, a frequency-dependent stochastic element stiffness, and mass matrices are derived for the axial and bending vibration of rods. Closed-form exact expressions are derived by using the Karhunen-Loève expansion. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the unified spectral approach.

Influence of Spatial Variability on Pavement Responses Using Latin Hypercube Sampling on Two-Dimensional Random Fields

Although uncertainties in material properties have been addressed in the design of flexible pavements, most current modeling techniques assume that pavement layers are homogeneous. The paper addresses the influence of the spatial variability of the resilient moduli of pavement layers by evaluating the effect of the variance and correlation length on the pavement responses to loading. The integration of the spatially varying log-normal random field with the finite-difference method has been achieved through an exponential autocorrelation function. The variation in the correlation length was found to have a marginal effect on the mean values of the critical strains and a noticeable effect on the standard deviation which decreases with decreases in correlation length. This reduction in the variance arises because of the spatial averaging phenomenon over the softer and stiffer zones generated because of spatial variability. The increase in the mean value of critical strains with decreasing correlation length, although minor, illustrates that pavement performance is adversely affected by the presence of spatially varying layers. The study also confirmed that the higher the variability in the pavement layer moduli, introduced through a higher value of coefficient of variation (COV), the higher the variability in the pavement response. The study concludes that ignoring spatial variability by modeling the pavement layers as homogeneous that have very short correlation lengths can result in the underestimation of the critical strains and thus an inaccurate assessment of the pavement performance. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Matrix Crack Detection in Composite Plate with Spatially Random Material Properties using Fractal Dimension

Fractal dimension based damage detection method is investigated for a composite plate with random material properties. Composite material shows spatially varying random material properties because of complex manufacturing processes. Matrix cracks are considered as damage in the composite plate. Such cracks are often seen as the initial damage mechanism in composites under fatigue loading and also occur due to low velocity impact. Static deflection of the cantilevered composite plate with uniform loading is calculated using the finite element method. Damage detection is carried out based on sliding window fractal dimension operator using the static deflection. Two dimensional homogeneous Gaussian random field is generated using Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion to represent the spatial variation of composite material property. The robustness of fractal dimension based damage detection method is demonstrated considering the composite material properties as a two dimensional random field.

Matrix crack detection in spatially random composite structures using fractal dimension

Fractal dimension based damage detection method is studied for a composite structure with random material properties. A composite plate with localized matrix crack is considered. Matrix cracks are often seen as the initial damage mechanism in composites. Fractal dimension based method is applied to the static deformation curve of the structure to detect localized damage. Static deflection of a cantilevered composite plate under uniform loading is calculated using the finite element method. Composite material shows spatially varying random material properties because of complex manufacturing processes. Spatial variation of material property is represented as a two dimensional homogeneous Gaussian random field. Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion is used to generate a random field. The robustness of fractal dimension based damage detection methods is studied considering the composite plate with spatial variation in material properties.

Probabilistic Seismic Design of Pile Foundations in Non Liquefiable Soil by Response Spectrum Approach

The behavior of pile foundations in non liquefiable soil under seismic loading is considerably influenced by the variability in the soil and seismic design parameters. Hence, probabilistic models for the assessment of seismic pile design are necessary. Deformation of pile foundation in non liquefiable soil is dominated by inertial force from superstructure. The present study considers a pseudo-static approach based on code specified design response spectra. The response of the pile is determined by equivalent cantilever approach. The soil medium is modeled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth. The variability associated with undrained shear strength, design response spectrum ordinate, and superstructure mass is taken into consideration. Monte Carlo simulation technique is adopted to determine the probability of failure and reliability indices based on pile failure modes, namely exceedance of lateral displacement limit and moment capacity. A reliability-based design approach for the free head pile under seismic force is suggested that enables a rational choice of pile design parameters.

Efficient Energy Management Policies for Networks with Energy Harvesting Sensor Nodes

We study sensor networks with energy harvesting nodes. The generated energy at a node can be stored in a buffer. A sensor node periodically senses a random field and generates a packet. These packets are stored in a queue and transmitted using the energy available at that time at the node. For such networks we develop efficient energy management policies. First, for a single node, we obtain policies that are throughput optimal, i.e., the data queue stays stable for the largest possible data rate. Next we obtain energy management policies which minimize the mean delay in the queue. We also compare performance of several easily implementable suboptimal policies. A greedy policy is identified which, in low SNR regime, is throughput optimal and also minimizes mean delay. Next using the results for a single node, we develop efficient MAC policies.

Design of laterally loaded piles in clays based on cone penetration test data: a reliability-based approach

The behaviour of laterally loaded piles is considerably influenced by the uncertainties in soil properties. Hence probabilistic models for assessment of allowable lateral load are necessary. Cone penetration test (CPT) data are often used to determine soil strength parameters, whereby the allowable lateral load of the pile is computed. In the present study, the maximum lateral displacement and moment of the pile are obtained based on the coefficient of subgrade reaction approach, considering the nonlinear soil behaviour in undrained clay. The coefficient of subgrade reaction is related to the undrained shear strength of soil, which can be obtained from CPT data. The soil medium is modelled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth, and it is described by the standard deviation and scale of fluctuation of the undrained shear strength of soil. Inherent soil variability, measurement uncertainty and transformation uncertainty are taken into consideration. The statistics of maximum lateral deflection and moment are obtained using the first-order, second-moment technique. Hasofer-Lind reliability indices for component and system failure criteria, based on the allowable lateral displacement and moment capacity of the pile section, are evaluated. The geotechnical database from the Konaseema site in India is used as a case example. It is shown that the reliability-based design approach for pile foundations, considering the spatial variability of soil, permits a rational choice of allowable lateral loads.

Influence of spatial variability of permeability property on steady state seepage flow and slope stability analysis

In recent years, spatial variability modeling of soil parameters using random field theory has gained distinct importance in geotechnical analysis. In the present Study, commercially available finite difference numerical code FLAC 5.0 is used for modeling the permeability parameter as spatially correlated log-normally distributed random variable and its influence on the steady state seepage flow and on the slope stability analysis are studied. Considering the case of a 5.0 m high cohesive-frictional soil slope of 30 degrees, a range of coefficients of variation (CoV%) from 60 to 90% in the permeability Values, and taking different values of correlation distance in the range of 0.5-15 m, parametric studies, using Monte Carlo simulations, are performed to study the following three aspects, i.e., (i) effect ostochastic soil permeability on the statistics of seepage flow in comparison to the analytic (Dupuit's) solution available for the uniformly constant permeability property; (ii) strain and deformation pattern, and (iii) stability of the given slope assessed in terms of factor of safety (FS). The results obtained in this study are useful to understand the role of permeability variations in slope stability analysis under different slope conditions and material properties. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distributed Transmission of Functions of Correlated Sources over a Fading Multiple Access Channel

In this paper we address the problem of distributed transmission of functions of correlated sources over a fast fading multiple access channel (MAC). This is a basic building block in a hierarchical sensor network used in estimating a random field where the cluster head is interested only in estimating a function of the observations. The observations are transmitted to the cluster head through a fast fading MAC. We provide sufficient conditions for lossy transmission when the encoders and decoders are provided with partial information about the channel state. Furthermore signal side information maybe available at the encoders and the decoder. Various previous studies are shown as special cases. Efficient joint-source channel coding schemes are discussed for transmission of discrete and continuous alphabet sources to recover function values.

Belief Propagation Based Decoding of Large Non-Orthogonal STBCs

In this paper,we present a belief propagation (BP) based algorithm for decoding non-orthogonal space-time block codes (STBC) from cyclic division algebras (CDA) having large dimensions. The proposed approachinvolves message passing on Markov random field (MRF) representation of the STBC MIMO system. Adoption of BP approach to decode non-orthogonal STBCs of large dimensions has not been reported so far. Our simulation results show that the proposed BP-based decoding achieves increasingly closer to SISO AWGN performance for increased number of dimensions. In addition, it also achieves near-capacity turbo coded BER performance; for e.g., with BP decoding of 24 x 24 STBC from CDA using BPSK (i.e.,n576 real dimensions) and rate-1/2 turbo code (i.e., 12 bps/Hz spectral efficiency), coded BER performance close to within just about 2.5 dB from the theoretical MIMO capacity is achieved.

Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Optimal Sleep-Wake Policies for an Energy Harvesting Sensor Node

We study a sensor node with an energy harvesting source. In any slot,the sensor node is in one of two modes: Wake or Sleep. The generated energy is stored in a buffer. The sensor node senses a random field and generates a packet when it is awake. These packets are stored in a queue and transmitted in the wake mode using the energy available in the energy buffer. We obtain energy management policies which minimize a linear combination of the mean queue length and the mean data loss rate. Then, we obtain two easily implementable suboptimal policies and compare their performance to that of the optimal policy. Next, we extend the Throughput Optimal policy developed in our previous work to sensors with two modes. Via this policy, we can increase the through put substantially and stabilize the data queue by allowing the node to sleep in some slots and to drop some generated packets. This policy requires minimal statistical knowledge of the system. We also modify this policy to decrease the switching costs.

Joint Power Control, Scheduling and Routing for Multihop Energy Harvesting Sensor Networks

We study wireless multihop energy harvesting sensor networks employed for random field estimation. The sensors sense the random field and generate data that is to be sent to a fusion node for estimation. Each sensor has an energy harvesting source and can operate in two modes: Wake and Sleep. We consider the problem of obtaining jointly optimal power control, routing and scheduling policies that ensure a fair utilization of network resources. This problem has a high computational complexity. Therefore, we develop a computationally efficient suboptimal approach to obtain good solutions to this problem. We study the optimal solution and performance of the suboptimal approach through some numerical examples.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.