Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Distributed nonlinear optimization algorithms for general network problems

There are a number of large networks which occur in many problems dealing with the flow of power, communication signals, water, gas, transportable goods, etc. Both design and planning of these networks involve optimization problems. The first part of this paper introduces the common characteristics of a nonlinear network (the network may be linear, the objective function may be non linear, or both may be nonlinear). The second part develops a mathematical model trying to put together some important constraints based on the abstraction for a general network. The third part deals with solution procedures; it converts the network to a matrix based system of equations, gives the characteristics of the matrix and suggests two solution procedures, one of them being a new one. The fourth part handles spatially distributed networks and evolves a number of decomposition techniques so that we can solve the problem with the help of a distributed computer system. Algorithms for parallel processors and spatially distributed systems have been described.There are a number of common features that pertain to networks. A network consists of a set of nodes and arcs. In addition at every node, there is a possibility of an input (like power, water, message, goods etc) or an output or none. Normally, the network equations describe the flows amoungst nodes through the arcs. These network equations couple variables associated with nodes. Invariably, variables pertaining to arcs are constants; the result required will be flows through the arcs. To solve the normal base problem, we are given input flows at nodes, output flows at nodes and certain physical constraints on other variables at nodes and we should find out the flows through the network (variables at nodes will be referred to as across variables).The optimization problem involves in selecting inputs at nodes so as to optimise an objective function; the objective may be a cost function based on the inputs to be minimised or a loss function or an efficiency function. The above mathematical model can be solved using Lagrange Multiplier technique since the equalities are strong compared to inequalities. The Lagrange multiplier technique divides the solution procedure into two stages per iteration. Stage one calculates the problem variables % and stage two the multipliers lambda. It is shown that the Jacobian matrix used in stage one (for solving a nonlinear system of necessary conditions) occurs in the stage two also.A second solution procedure has also been imbedded into the first one. This is called total residue approach. It changes the equality constraints so that we can get faster convergence of the iterations.Both solution procedures are found to coverge in 3 to 7 iterations for a sample network.The availability of distributed computer systems — both LAN and WAN — suggest the need for algorithms to solve the optimization problems. Two types of algorithms have been proposed — one based on the physics of the network and the other on the property of the Jacobian matrix. Three algorithms have been deviced, one of them for the local area case. These algorithms are called as regional distributed algorithm, hierarchical regional distributed algorithm (both using the physics properties of the network), and locally distributed algorithm (a multiprocessor based approach with a local area network configuration). The approach used was to define an algorithm that is faster and uses minimum communications. These algorithms are found to converge at the same rate as the non distributed (unitary) case.

Decision support system for regional electricity planning

Electricity appears to be the energy carrier of choice for modern economics since growth in electricity has outpaced growth in the demand for fuels. A decision maker (DM) for accurate and efficient decisions in electricity distribution requires the sector wise and location wise electricity consumption information to predict the requirement of electricity. In this regard, an interactive computer-based Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed to compile, analyse and present the data at disaggregated levels for regional energy planning. This helps in providing the precise information needed to make timely decisions related to transmission and distribution planning leading to increased efficiency and productivity. This paper discusses the design and implementation of a DSS, which facilitates to analyse the consumption of electricity at various hierarchical levels (division, taluk, sub division, feeder) for selected periods. This DSS is validated with the data of transmission and distribution systems of Kolar district in Karnataka State, India.

Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.