A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.

Synthesis Based on Cyclohexadienes. 5. A New Approach to the Synthesis of a-Ring Aromatic Steroids - a Formal Total Synthesis of (+/-)-Estrone

A new strategy for the construction of A-ring aromatic steroids which resulted in the formal total synthesis of estrone is described. Thus reaction of the adduct (9), obtained from 1-methoxy-4-methylcyclohexa-1,4-diene and acrolein, with 3-(m-methoxyphenyl)propylmagnesium bromide followed by oxidation afforded the bicyclo[2.2.2]octene derivative (14). Acid-catalysed rearrangement of (14) followed by an intramolecular Michael addition resulted in the cis tetraenone (18) which was dehydrogenated with palladium chloride to the pentaenone (22). Li/NH3 reduction of (22) gave 3-methoxy-D-homoestra-1,3,5(10)-trien-16-one (31) which has been converted into the methyl ether (37) of marrianolic acid, and its methyl ester (38).

Non-Gaussianity and direction-dependent systematics in HST Key Project data

Two new statistics, namely Delta(chi 2) and Delta(chi), based on the extreme value theory, were derived by Gupta et al. We use these statistics to study the direction dependence in the HST Key Project data, which provides one of the most precise measurements of the Hubble constant. We also study the non-Gaussianity in this data set using these statistics. Our results for Delta(chi 2) show that the significance of direction-dependent systematics is restricted to well below the 1 sigma confidence limit; however, the presence of non-Gaussian features is subtle. On the other hand, the Delta(chi). statistic, which is more sensitive to direction dependence, shows direction dependence systematics to be at a slightly higher confidence level, and the presence of non-Gaussian features at a level similar to the Delta(chi 2) statistic.

Flow-acoustic Characterisation of a Cavity-based Combustor Configuration

This study concerns the flow-acoustic characterisation of a cavity-based combustor configuration. A well-validated numerical tool has been used to simulate the unsteady, two-dimensional reacting flow. Initially, a conventional flow over a cavity with dimensions and conditions corresponding to a compact cavity combustor was studied. Cavity mass injections in the form of fuel and air injections required for trapped vortex formation were then employed and the resonance features of this configuration were studied. The results indicate that the cavity depth mode resonance mechanism is dominant at the conditions studied in this work and that the oscillation frequencies do not change with cavity air injection. This observation is important since it implies that the only important variable which can alter resonant frequencies is the cavity depth. With combustion, the pressure oscillation amplitude was observed to increases significantly due to periodic entrainment of the cavity air jet and fluctuation of fuel-air mixture composition to produce highly fluctuating heat-release rates. The underlying mechanisms of the unsteady flow in the cavity combustor identified in this study indicate the strong dependence of the acoustics on the cavity injection strategies.

A Flexible Crypto-system Based upon the REDEFINE Polymorphic ASIC Architecture

The highest levels of security can be achieved through the use of more than one type of cryptographic algorithm for each security function. In this paper, the REDEFINE polymorphic architecture is presented as an architecture framework that can optimally support a varied set of crypto algorithms without losing high performance. The presented solution is capable of accelerating the advanced encryption standard (AES) and elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) cryptographic protocols, while still supporting different flavors of these algorithms as well as different underlying finite field sizes. The compelling feature of this cryptosystem is the ability to provide acceleration support for new field sizes as well as new (possibly proprietary) cryptographic algorithms decided upon after the cryptosystem is deployed.