103 resultados para Probability of choice
em Indian Institute of Science - Bangalore - Índia
Resumo:
Evaluation of the probability of error in decision feedback equalizers is difficult due to the presence of a hard limiter in the feedback path. This paper derives the upper and lower bounds on the probability of a single error and multiple error patterns. The bounds are fairly tight. The bounds can also be used to select proper tap gains of the equalizer.
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Upper bounds on the probability of error due to co-channel interference are proposed in this correspondence. The bounds are easy to compute and can be fairly tight.
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The effects of the initial height on the temporal persistence probability of steady-state height fluctuations in up-down symmetric linear models of surface growth are investigated. We study the (1 + 1)-dimensional Family model and the (1 + 1)-and (2 + 1)-dimensional larger curvature (LC) model. Both the Family and LC models have up-down symmetry, so the positive and negative persistence probabilities in the steady state, averaged over all values of the initial height h(0), are equal to each other. However, these two probabilities are not equal if one considers a fixed nonzero value of h(0). Plots of the positive persistence probability for negative initial height versus time exhibit power-law behavior if the magnitude of the initial height is larger than the interface width at saturation. By symmetry, the negative persistence probability for positive initial height also exhibits the same behavior. The persistence exponent that describes this power-law decay decreases as the magnitude of the initial height is increased. The dependence of the persistence probability on the initial height, the system size, and the discrete sampling time is found to exhibit scaling behavior.
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The basic requirement for an autopilot is fast response and minimum steady state error for better guidance performance. The highly nonlinear nature of the missile dynamics due to the severe kinematic and inertial coupling of the missile airframe as well as the aerodynamics has been a challenge for an autopilot that is required to have satisfactory performance for all flight conditions in probable engagements. Dynamic inversion is very popular nonlinear controller for this kind of scenario. But the drawback of this controller is that it is sensitive to parameter perturbation. To overcome this problem, neural network has been used to capture the parameter uncertainty on line. The choice of basis function plays the major role in capturing the unknown dynamics. Here in this paper, many basis function has been studied for approximation of unknown dynamics. Cosine basis function has yield the best response compared to any other basis function for capturing the unknown dynamics. Neural network with Cosine basis function has improved the autopilot performance as well as robustness compared to Dynamic inversion without Neural network.
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We address the problem of designing an optimal pointwise shrinkage estimator in the transform domain, based on the minimum probability of error (MPE) criterion. We assume an additive model for the noise corrupting the clean signal. The proposed formulation is general in the sense that it can handle various noise distributions. We consider various noise distributions (Gaussian, Student's-t, and Laplacian) and compare the denoising performance of the estimator obtained with the mean-squared error (MSE)-based estimators. The MSE optimization is carried out using an unbiased estimator of the MSE, namely Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate (SURE). Experimental results show that the MPE estimator outperforms the SURE estimator in terms of SNR of the denoised output, for low (0 -10 dB) and medium values (10 - 20 dB) of the input SNR.
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The issue of dynamic spectrum scene analysis in any cognitive radio network becomes extremely complex when low probability of intercept, spread spectrum systems are present in environment. The detection and estimation become more complex if frequency hopping spread spectrum is adaptive in nature. In this paper, we propose two phase approach for detection and estimation of frequency hoping signals. Polyphase filter bank has been proposed as the architecture of choice for detection phase to efficiently detect the presence of frequency hopping signal. Based on the modeling of frequency hopping signal it can be shown that parametric methods of line spectral analysis are well suited for estimation of frequency hopping signals if the issues of order estimation and time localization are resolved. An algorithm using line spectra parameter estimation and wavelet based transient detection has been proposed which resolves above issues in computationally efficient manner suitable for implementation in cognitive radio. The simulations show promising results proving that adaptive frequency hopping signals can be detected and demodulated in a non cooperative context, even at a very low signal to noise ratio in real time.
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The behavior of pile foundations in non liquefiable soil under seismic loading is considerably influenced by the variability in the soil and seismic design parameters. Hence, probabilistic models for the assessment of seismic pile design are necessary. Deformation of pile foundation in non liquefiable soil is dominated by inertial force from superstructure. The present study considers a pseudo-static approach based on code specified design response spectra. The response of the pile is determined by equivalent cantilever approach. The soil medium is modeled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth. The variability associated with undrained shear strength, design response spectrum ordinate, and superstructure mass is taken into consideration. Monte Carlo simulation technique is adopted to determine the probability of failure and reliability indices based on pile failure modes, namely exceedance of lateral displacement limit and moment capacity. A reliability-based design approach for the free head pile under seismic force is suggested that enables a rational choice of pile design parameters.
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Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.
Resumo:
The issue of dynamic spectrum scene analysis in any cognitive radio network becomes extremely complex when low probability of intercept, spread spectrum systems are present in environment. The detection and estimation become more complex if frequency hopping spread spectrum is adaptive in nature. In this paper, we propose two phase approach for detection and estimation of frequency hoping signals. Polyphase filter bank has been proposed as the architecture of choice for detection phase to efficiently detect the presence of frequency hopping signal. Based on the modeling of frequency hopping signal it can be shown that parametric methods of line spectral analysis are well suited for estimation of frequency hopping signals if the issues of order estimation and time localization are resolved. An algorithm using line spectra parameter estimation and wavelet based transient detection has been proposed which resolves above issues in computationally efficient manner suitable for implementation in cognitive radio. The simulations show promising results proving that adaptive frequency hopping signals can be detected and demodulated in a non cooperative context, even at a very low signal to noise ratio in real time.
Resumo:
The variation of the viscosity as a function of the sequence distribution in an A-B random copolymer melt is determined. The parameters that characterize the random copolymer are the fraction of A monomers f, the parameter lambda which determines the correlation in the monomer identities along a chain and the Flory chi parameter chi(F) which determines the strength of the enthalpic repulsion between monomers of type A and B. For lambda>0, there is a greater probability of finding like monomers at adjacent positions along the chain, and for lambda<0 unlike monomers are more likely to be adjacent to each other. The traditional Markov model for the random copolymer melt is altered to remove ultraviolet divergences in the equations for the renormalized viscosity, and the phase diagram for the modified model has a binary fluid type transition for lambda>0 and does not exhibit a phase transition for lambda<0. A mode coupling analysis is used to determine the renormalization of the viscosity due to the dependence of the bare viscosity on the local concentration field. Due to the dissipative nature of the coupling. there are nonlinearities both in the transport equation and in the noise correlation. The concentration dependence of the transport coefficient presents additional difficulties in the formulation due to the Ito-Stratonovich dilemma, and there is some ambiguity about the choice of the concentration to be used while calculating the noise correlation. In the Appendix, it is shown using a diagrammatic perturbation analysis that the Ito prescription for the calculation of the transport coefficient, when coupled with a causal discretization scheme, provides a consistent formulation that satisfies stationarity and the fluctuation dissipation theorem. This functional integral formalism is used in the present analysis, and consistency is verified for the present problem as well. The upper critical dimension for this type of renormaliaation is 2, and so there is no divergence in the viscosity in the vicinity of a critical point. The results indicate that there is a systematic dependence of the viscosity on lambda and chi(F). The fluctuations tend to increase the viscosity for lambda<0, and decrease the viscosity for lambda>0, and an increase in chi(F) tends to decrease the viscosity. (C) 1996 American Institute of Physics.
Resumo:
The evolution of sexually dimorphic, elaborate male traits that are seemingly maladaptive may be driven by sexual selection (male-male competition and or female mate choice). Tusk possession in the Asian elephant is sexually dimorphic and exaggerated but its role in male-male competition has not yet been determined. We examined the role of the tusks in establishing dominance along with two other known male-male signals, namely, body size and musth (a temporary physiologically heightened sexual state) in an Asian elephant population in northeastern India with equal proportions of tusked and tuskless males. We observed 116 agonistic interactions with clear dominance outcomes between adult (>15 years) males during 458 field days in the dry season months of 2008-2011. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was used to predict the probability of winning as a function of body size, tusk possession and musth status relative to the opponent. A hierarchy of the three male-male signals emerged from this analysis, with musth overriding body size and body size overriding tusk possession. In this elephant population tusk possession thus plays a relatively minor role in male-male competition. An important implication of musth and body size being stronger determinants of dominance than tusk possession is that it could facilitate rapid evolution of tuskless males in the population under artificial selection against tusked individuals, which are poached for ivory. (C) 2013 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Compulsators are power sources of choice for use in electromagnetic launchers and railguns. These devices hold the promise of reducing unit costs of payload to orbit. In an earlier work, the author had calculated the current distribution in compulsator wires by considering the wire to be split into a finite number of separate wires. The present work develops an integral formulation of the problem of current distribution in compulsator wires which leads to an integrodifferential equation. Analytical solutions, including those for the integration constants, are obtained in closed form. The analytical solutions present a much clearer picture of the effect of various input parameters on the cross-sectional current distribution and point to ways in which the desired current density distribution can be achieved. Results are graphically presented and discussed, with particular reference to a 50-kJ compulsator in Bangalore. Finite-element analysis supports the results.
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Evolutionarily stable sex ratios are determined for social hymenoptera under local mate competition (LMC) and when the brood size is finite. LMC is modelled by the parameter d. Of the reproductive progeny from a single foundress nest, a fraction d disperses (outbreeding), while (1-d) mate amongst themselves (sibmating). When the brood size is finite, d is taken to be the probability of an offspring dispersing, and similarly, r, the proportion of male offspring, the probability of a haploid egg being laid. Under the joint influence of these two stochastic processes, there is a nonzero probability that some females remain unmated in the nest. As a result, the optimal proportion of males (corresponding to the evolutionarily stable strategy, ESS) is higher than that obtained when the brood size is infinite. When the queen controls the sex ration, the ESS becomes more female biased under increased inbreeding (lower d), However, the ESS under worker control shows an unexpected pattern, including an increase in the proportion of males with increased inbreeding. This effect is traced to the complex interaction between inbreeding and local mate competition.
Resumo:
The statistical minimum risk pattern recognition problem, when the classification costs are random variables of unknown statistics, is considered. Using medical diagnosis as a possible application, the problem of learning the optimal decision scheme is studied for a two-class twoaction case, as a first step. This reduces to the problem of learning the optimum threshold (for taking appropriate action) on the a posteriori probability of one class. A recursive procedure for updating an estimate of the threshold is proposed. The estimation procedure does not require the knowledge of actual class labels of the sample patterns in the design set. The adaptive scheme of using the present threshold estimate for taking action on the next sample is shown to converge, in probability, to the optimum. The results of a computer simulation study of three learning schemes demonstrate the theoretically predictable salient features of the adaptive scheme.