Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia.

Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatigue crack propagation model for plain concrete - An analogy with population growth

In this work, an analytical model is proposed for fatigue crack propagation in plain concrete based on population growth exponential law and in conjunction with principles of dimensional analysis and self-similarity. This model takes into account parameters such as loading history, fracture toughness, crack length, loading ratio and structural size. The predicted results are compared with experimental crack growth data for constant and variable amplitude loading and are found to capture the size effect apart from showing a good agreement. Using this model, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to study the effect of various parameters that influence fatigue failure. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A finite population model of mlecular evolution: theory and computation

This article is concerned with the evolution of haploid organisms that reproduce asexually. In a seminal piece of work, Eigen and coauthors proposed the quasispecies model in an attempt to understand such an evolutionary process. Their work has impacted antiviral treatment and vaccine design strategies. Yet, predictions of the quasispecies model are at best viewed as a guideline, primarily because it assumes an infinite population size, whereas realistic population sizes can be quite small. In this paper we consider a population genetics-based model aimed at understanding the evolution of such organisms with finite population sizes and present a rigorous study of the convergence and computational issues that arise therein. Our first result is structural and shows that, at any time during the evolution, as the population size tends to infinity, the distribution of genomes predicted by our model converges to that predicted by the quasispecies model. This justifies the continued use of the quasispecies model to derive guidelines for intervention. While the stationary state in the quasispecies model is readily obtained, due to the explosion of the state space in our model, exact computations are prohibitive. Our second set of results are computational in nature and address this issue. We derive conditions on the parameters of evolution under which our stochastic model mixes rapidly. Further, for a class of widely used fitness landscapes we give a fast deterministic algorithm which computes the stationary distribution of our model. These computational tools are expected to serve as a framework for the modeling of strategies for the deployment of mutagenic drugs.

Studies on elastic coupling parameters of fracture modes in orthotropic materials

The characterisation of cracks is usually done using the well known three basic fracture modes, namely opening, shearing and tearing modes. In isotropic materials these modes are uncoupled and provide a convenient way to define the fracture parameters. It is well known that these fracture modes are coupled in anisotropic materials. In the case of orthotropic materials also, coupling exists between the fracture modes, unless the crack plane coincides with one of the axes of orthotropy. The strength of coupling depends upon the orientation of the axes of orthotropy with respect to the crack plane and so the energy release rate components associated with each of the modes vary with crack orientation. The variation, of these energy release rate components with the crack orientation with respect to orthotropic axes, is analyzed in this paper. Results indicate that in addition to the orthotropic planes there exists other planes with reference to which fracture modes are uncoupled.

Determination of diffusion parameters and activation energy of diffusion in V3Si phase with A15 crystal structure

Diffusion such is the integrated diffusion coefficient of the phase, the tracer diffusion coefficient of species at different temperatures and the activation energy for diffusion, are determined in V3Si phase with A15 crystal structure. The tracer diffusion coefficient of Si Was found to be negligible compared to the tracer diffusion coefficient of V. The calculated diffusion parameters will help to validate the theoretical analysis of defect structure of the phase, which plays an important role in the superconductivity.

Precipitation In Small Systems--II. Mean Field Equations More Effective Than Population Balance

Part I (Manjunath et al., 1994, Chem. Engng Sci. 49, 1451-1463) of this paper showed that the random particle numbers and size distributions in precipitation processes in very small drops obtained by stochastic simulation techniques deviate substantially from the predictions of conventional population balance. The foregoing problem is considered in this paper in terms of a mean field approximation obtained by applying a first-order closure to an unclosed set of mean field equations presented in Part I. The mean field approximation consists of two mutually coupled partial differential equations featuring (i) the probability distribution for residual supersaturation and (ii) the mean number density of particles for each size and supersaturation from which all average properties and fluctuations can be calculated. The mean field equations have been solved by finite difference methods for (i) crystallization and (ii) precipitation of a metal hydroxide both occurring in a single drop of specified initial supersaturation. The results for the average number of particles, average residual supersaturation, the average size distribution, and fluctuations about the average values have been compared with those obtained by stochastic simulation techniques and by population balance. This comparison shows that the mean field predictions are substantially superior to those of population balance as judged by the close proximity of results from the former to those from stochastic simulations. The agreement is excellent for broad initial supersaturations at short times but deteriorates progressively at larger times. For steep initial supersaturation distributions, predictions of the mean field theory are not satisfactory thus calling for higher-order approximations. The merit of the mean field approximation over stochastic simulation lies in its potential to reduce expensive computation times involved in simulation. More effective computational techniques could not only enhance this advantage of the mean field approximation but also make it possible to use higher-order approximations eliminating the constraints under which the stochastic dynamics of the process can be predicted accurately.

A probabilistic constrained nonlinear optimization framework to optimize RED parameters

The random early detection (RED) technique has seen a lot of research over the years. However, the functional relationship between RED performance and its parameters viz,, queue weight (omega(q)), marking probability (max(p)), minimum threshold (min(th)) and maximum threshold (max(th)) is not analytically availa ble. In this paper, we formulate a probabilistic constrained optimization problem by assuming a nonlinear relationship between the RED average queue length and its parameters. This problem involves all the RED parameters as the variables of the optimization problem. We use the barrier and the penalty function approaches for its Solution. However (as above), the exact functional relationship between the barrier and penalty objective functions and the optimization variable is not known, but noisy samples of these are available for different parameter values. Thus, for obtaining the gradient and Hessian of the objective, we use certain recently developed simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) based estimates of these. We propose two four-timescale stochastic approximation algorithms based oil certain modified second-order SPSA updates for finding the optimum RED parameters. We present the results of detailed simulation experiments conducted over different network topologies and network/traffic conditions/settings, comparing the performance of Our algorithms with variants of RED and a few other well known adaptive queue management (AQM) techniques discussed in the literature.

The Influence of Processing Parameters on Characteristics of an Aluminum Alloy Spray Deposition

In the present investigation, two nozzle configurations are used for spray deposition, convergent nozzle (nozzle-A), and convergent nozzle with 2 mm parallel portion attached at its end (nozzle-C) without changing the exit area. First, the conditions for subambient aspiration pressure, i.e., pressure at the tip of the melt delivery tube, are established by varying the protrusion length of the melt delivery tube at different applied gas pressures for both of the nozzles. Using these conditions, spray deposits in a reproducible manner are successfully obtained for 7075 Al alloy. The effect of applied gas pressure, flight distance, and nozzle configuration on various characteristics of spray deposition, viz., yield, melt flow rate, and gas-to-metal ratio, is examined. The over-spray powder is also characterized with respect to powder size distribution, shape, and microstructure. Some of the results are explained with the help of numerical analysis presented in an earlier article.

An E-Convergence Method For The Evaluation Of Critical Parameters

A simple cconversence technique is applied to obtain accurate estimates of critical temperatures and critical it\ponmts of a few two- and threpdiniensional king models. When applied to the virial series for hard spheres and hard discs, this method predicts a divergence of the equation-of-state at the density of closest packing.

On the moulding of population viscosity by natural selection

In this paper, we explore the conjoint evolution of dispersal and social behaviour. The model investigated is of a population distributed over a number of sites each with a carrying capacity of two adults and an episode of dispersal in the juvenile stage. The fertilities are governed by whether an individual and its neighbour are selfish or co-operative. It is shown that the best dispersal strategy for the co-operative genotype always involves lower levels of dispersal; and further that ecological conditions favouring low levels of dispersal increase the selective advantage of a co-operative genotype. Given this positive feedback, we suggest that in any taxon viscosity and co-operativity will tend to be correlated and bimodally distributed. Hence we predict the existence of two kinds of animal societies; viscous and co-operative (e.g. quasi-social wasps such as Mischocyttarus), and non-viscous and selfish (e.g. communal sphecid wasps such as Cerceris), and relatively few social groups with intermediate levels of co-operativity and viscosity. We also suggest that when one of the two sexes disperses, it will be the sex with lower potential for co-operative behaviour.

Identification of parameters in unconfined aquifers

A method is presented for identification of parameters in unconfined aquifers from pumping tests, based on the optimisation of the objective function using the least squares approach. Four parameters are to be evaluated, namely: The hydraulic conductivity in the radial and the vertical directions, the storage coefficient and the specific yield. The sensitivity analysis technique is used for solving the optimisation problem. Besides eliminating the subjectivity involved in the graphical procedure, the method takes into account the field data at all time intervals without classifying them into small and large time intervals and does not use the approximation that the ratio of the storage coefficient to the specific yield tends to zero. Two illustrative examples are presented and it is found that the parameter estimates from the computational and graphical procedures differ fairly significantly.

Estimation of cosmological parameters from neutral hydrogen observations of the post-reionization epoch

The emission from neutral hydrogen (HI) clouds in the post-reionization era (z <= 6), too faint to be individually detected, is present as a diffuse background in all low frequency radio observations below 1420MHz. The angular and frequency fluctuations of this radiation (similar to 1 mK) are an important future probe of the large-scale structures in the Universe. We show that such observations are a very effective probe of the background cosmological model and the perturbed Universe. In our study we focus on the possibility of determining the redshift-space distortion parameter beta, coordinate distance r(nu), and its derivative with redshift r(nu)('). Using reasonable estimates for the observational uncertainties and configurations representative of the ongoing and upcoming radio interferometers, we predict parameter estimation at a precision comparable with supernova Ia observations and galaxy redshift surveys, across a wide range in redshift that is only partially accessed by other probes. Future HI observations of the post-reionization era present a new technique, complementing several existing ones, to probe the expansion history and to elucidate the nature of the dark energy.

Effect of wave parameters on flood wave subsidence

A detailed analy~is on the propagation of a sinusoidal flood wave in a wide prismatic open channel b.as hen made by numc? ii.~ll~integrating We govemins nondimenional equations of unsteady flow in an open chamei. EmpE:dsis has been laid on the effect of wave parmefen on th propagation of 6.8 sinusoidal wave. Results show that the amount of subsidence is more in the case of small wave anplltude and wave duration cases. Further, wave duration has been noticed to have a relatively Vier influence on subsidence than wave amplitude. The speed at which the peak of the wave moves is observed to be a function of only the wave amplitude.