Fruit and Seed Volatiles: Multiple Stage Settings, Actors and Props in an Evolutionary Play

Plants emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from most parts of their anatomy. Conventionally, the volatiles of leaves, flowers, fruits and seeds have been investigated separately. This review presents an integrated perspective of volatiles produced by fruits and seeds in the context of selection on the whole plant. It suggests that fruit and seed volatiles may only be understood in the light of the chemistry of the whole plant. Fleshy fruit may be viewed as an ecological arena within which several evolutionary games are being played involving fruit VOCs. Fruit odour and colour may be correlated and interact via multimodal signalling in influencing visits by frugivores. The hypothesis of volatile crypsis in the evolution of hard seeds as protection against volatile diffusion and perception by seed predators is reviewed. Current views on the role of volatiles in ant dispersal of seeds or myrmecochory are summarised, especially the suggestion that ants are being manipulated by plants in the form of a sensory trap while providing this service. Plant VOC production is presented as an emergent phenotype that could result from multiple selection pressures acting on various plant parts; the ``plant'' phenotype and VOC profile may receive significant contributions from symbionts within the plant. Viewing the plant as a holobiont would benefit an understanding of the emergent plant phenotype.

A mean-reverting stochastic model for the political business cycle

In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.