3 resultados para Political Europe

em Indian Institute of Science - Bangalore - Índia


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The virus epizootics which occurred in seals in both Europe and Siberia during 1987/1988 were caused by two different morbillivirus, referred to as phocid distemper virus (PDV) 1 and 2, respectively. Molecular and serological studies have shown that the European virus is quite distinct from canine distemper virus (CDV), its closest relative in the morbillivirus group. Analysis of tissues obtained from infected seals from a wide geographical distrubution over Northern Europe showed that the infectious agent (PDV 1) was identical in all cases. Nucleotide sequence analysis of one of the virus genes suggested that this virus has evolved away from CDV over a long time period and is most probably an enzootic virus of marine mammals. In contrast, the virus (PDV 2) which caused the deaths of many Siberian seals was indistinguishable, both serologically and at the molecular level, from CDV and must have originated from a land source.

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In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.