Modeling Indian Ocean circulation: Bay of Bengal fresh water plume and the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool

The Indian subcontinent divides the north Indian Ocean into two tropical basins, namely the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The Arabian Sea has high salinity whereas the salinity of the Bay of Bengal is much lower due to the contrast in freshwater forcing of the two basins. The freshwater received by the Bay in large amounts during the summer monsoon through river discharge is flushed out annually by ocean circulation. After the withdrawal of the summer monsoon, the Ganga – Brahmaputra river plume flows first along the Indian coast and then around Sri Lanka into the Arabian Sea creating a low salinity pool in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS). In the same region, during the pre-monsoon months of February – April, a warm pool, known as the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP), which is distinctly warmer than the rest of the Indian Ocean, takes shape. In fact, this is the warmest region in the world oceans during this period. Simulation of the river plume and its movement as well as its implications to thermodynamics has been a challenging problem for models of Indian Ocean. Here we address these issues using an ocean general circulation model – first we show that the model is capable of reproducing fresh plumes in the Bay of Bengal as well as its movement and then we use the model to determine the processes that lead to formation of the ASMWP. Hydrographic observations from the western Bay of Bengal have shown the presence of a fresh plume along the northern part of the Indian coast during summer monsoon. The Indian Ocean model when forced by realistic winds and climatological river discharge reproduces the fresh plume with reasonable accuracy. The fresh plume does not advect along the Indian coast until the end of summer monsoon. The North Bay Monsoon Current, which flows eastward in the northern Bay, separates the low salinity water from the more saline southern parts of the bay and thus plays an important role in the fresh water budget of the Bay of Bengal. The model also reproduces the surge of the fresh-plume along the Indian coast, into the Arabian Sea during northeast monsoon. Mechanisms that lead to the formation of the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool are investigated using several numerical experiments. Contrary to the existing theories, we find that salinity effects are not necessary for the formation of the ASMWP. The orographic effects of the Sahyadris (Western Ghats) and resulting reduction in wind speed leads to the formation of the ASMWP. During November – April, the SEAS behave as a low-wind heatdominated regime where the evolution of sea surface temperature is solely determined by atmospheric forcing. In such regions the evolution of surface layer temperature is not dependent on the characteristics of the subsurface ocean such as the barrier layer and temperature inversion.

Development of a regional model for the North Indian Ocean

We have developed a one-way nested Indian Ocean regional model. The model combines the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Modular Ocean Model (MOM4p1) at global climate model resolution (nominally one degree), and a regional Indian Ocean MOM4p1 configuration with 25 km horizontal resolution and 1 m vertical resolution near the surface. Inter-annual global simulations with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) surface forcing over years 1992-2005 provide surface boundary conditions. We show that relative to the global simulation, (i) biases in upper ocean temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth are reduced, (ii) sea surface height and upper ocean circulation are closer to observations, and (iii) improvements in model simulation can be attributed to refined resolution, more realistic topography and inclusion of seasonal river runoff. Notably, the surface salinity bias is reduced to less than 0.1 psu over the Bay of Bengal using relatively weak restoring to observations, and the model simulates the strong, shallow halocline often observed in the North Bay of Bengal. There is marked improvement in subsurface salinity and temperature, as well as mixed layer depth in the Bay of Bengal. Major seasonal signatures in observed sea surface height anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean, including the coastal waveguide around the Indian peninsula, are simulated with great fidelity. The use of realistic topography and seasonal river runoff brings the three dimensional structure of the East India Coastal Current and West India Coastal Current much closer to observations. As a result, the incursion of low salinity Bay of Bengal water into the southeastern Arabian Sea is more realistic. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of Mathematical Programming to the Plywood Design and Manufacturing Problem

Plywood manufacture includes two fundamental stages. The first is to peel or separate logs into veneer sheets of different thicknesses. The second is to assemble veneer sheets into finished plywood products. At the first stage a decision must be made as to the number of different veneer thicknesses to be peeled and what these thicknesses should be. At the second stage, choices must be made as to how these veneers will be assembled into final products to meet certain constraints while minimizing wood loss. These decisions present a fundamental management dilemma. Costs of peeling, drying, storage, handling, etc. can be reduced by decreasing the number of veneer thicknesses peeled. However, a reduced set of thickness options may make it infeasible to produce the variety of products demanded by the market or increase wood loss by requiring less efficient selection of thicknesses for assembly. In this paper the joint problem of veneer choice and plywood construction is formulated as a nonlinear integer programming problem. A relatively simple optimal solution procedure is developed that exploits special problem structure. This procedure is examined on data from a British Columbia plywood mill. Restricted to the existing set of veneer thicknesses and plywood designs used by that mill, the procedure generated a solution that reduced wood loss by 79 percent, thereby increasing net revenue by 6.86 percent. Additional experiments were performed that examined the consequences of changing the number of veneer thicknesses used. Extensions are discussed that permit the consideration of more than one wood species.

Impact of physical processes on the chlorophyll distribution in the Bay of Bengal

Satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (chl a) maps show three regions with high chl a in the Bay of Bengal. First among these is close to the coast, particularly off river mouths, with high values coinciding with the season of peak discharge; second is in the southwestern bay during the northeast monsoon, which is forced by local Ekman pumping; and the third is to the east of Sri Lanka in response to the summer monsoon winds. Chlorophyll-rich water from the mouths of rivers flows either along the coast or in an offshore direction, up to several hundred kilometers, depending on the prevailing ocean current pattern. The Irrawady River plume flows toward offshore and then turns northwestward during October–December, but it flows along the coast into the Andaman Sea for the rest of the year. From the Ganga-Brahmaputra river mouth, chl a–rich water flows directly southward into the open bay during spring but along the Indian coast during summer and winter. Along the Indian coast, the flow of chl a–rich water is determined by the East India Coastal Current (EICC). Whenever the EICC meanders off the Indian coast, it leads to an offshore outbreak of chl a–rich water from the coastal region into open ocean. The EICC as well as open ocean circulation in the bay is made up of several eddies, and these eddies show relatively higher chl a. Eddies near the coast, however, can often have higher chl a because of advection from the coastal region rather than generation within the eddy itself. The bay experiences several cyclones in a year, most of them occurring during October–November. These cyclones cause a drop in the sea surface temperature, a dip in the sea level, and a local increase in chl a. The impact of a cyclone is weaker in the northern part of the bay because of stronger stratification compared to the southern parts.

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

PIV study on the dimple mid-plane of a narrow rectangular channel with dimples applied to one wall

This paper presents an investigation of the fluid flow in the fully developed portion of a rectangular channel (Aspect Ratio of 2) with dimples applied to one wall at channel Reynolds numbers of 20,000, 30,000, and 40,000. The dimples are applied in a staggered-row, racetrack configuration. Results for three different dimple geometries are presented: a large dimple, small dimple, and double dimple. Heat transfer and aerodynamic results from preceding works are presented in Nusselt number and friction factor augmentation plots as determined experimentally. Using particle image velocimetry, the region near the dimple feature is studied in detail in the location of the entrainment and ejection of vortical packets into and out of the dimple; the downstream wake region behind each dimple is also studied to examine the effects of the local flow phenomenon that result in improved heat transfer in the areas of the channel wall not occupied by a feature. The focus of the paper is to examine the secondary flows in these dimpled channels in order to support the previously presented heat transfer trends. The flow visualization is also intended to improve the understanding of the flow disturbances in a dimpled channel; a better understanding of these effects would lead the development of more effective channel cooling designs. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.

Simulated long-term climate response to idealized solar geoengineering

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a potential means to counteract anthropogenic climate change, yet it is unknown how such climate intervention might affect the Earth's climate on the millennial time scale. Here we use the HadCM3L model to conduct a 1000year sunshade geoengineering simulation in which solar irradiance is uniformly reduced by 4% to approximately offset global mean warming from an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. During the 1000year period, modeled global climate, including temperature, hydrological cycle, and ocean circulation of the high-CO2 simulation departs substantially from that of the control preindustrial simulation, whereas the climate of the geoengineering simulation remains much closer to that of the preindustrial state with little drift. The results of our study do not support the hypothesis that nonlinearities in the climate system would cause substantial drift in the climate system if solar geoengineering was to be deployed on the timescale of a millennium.