Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

On the roles of the northeast cold surge, the Borneo vortex, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole during the extreme 2006/2007 flood in southern Peninsular Malaysia

The mid-December 2006 to late January 2007 flood in southern Peninsular Malaysia was the worst flood in a century and was caused by three extreme precipitation episodes. These extreme precipitation events were mainly associated with strong northeasterly winds over the South China Sea. In all cases, the northeasterlies penetrated anomalously far south and followed almost a straight trajectory. The elevated terrain over Sumatra and southern Peninsular Malaysia caused low-level convergence. The strong easterly winds near Java associated with the Rossby wave-type response to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) inhibited the counter-clockwise turning of the northeasterlies and the formation of the Borneo vortex, which, in turn, enhanced the low-level convergence over the region. The abrupt termination of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in December 2006 played a secondary role as warmer equatorial Indian Ocean helped in the MJO formation.

Hydrography and circulation in the western Bay of Bengal during the northeast monsoon

The Bay of Bengal, a semienclosed tropical basin that comes under the influence of monsoonal wind and freshwater influx, is distinguished by a strongly stratified surface layer and a seasonally reversing circulation. We discuss characteristics of these features in the western Bay during the northeast monsoon, when the East India Coastal Current (EICC) flows southward, using hydrographic data collected during December 1991. Vertical profiles show uniform temperature and salinity in a homogeneous surface layer, on average, 25 m deep but shallower northward and coastward. The halocline, immediately below, is approximately 50 m thick; salinity changes by approximately 3 parts per thousand. About two thirds of the profiles show temperature inversions in this layer. Salinity below the halocline hardly changes, and stratification is predominantly due to temperature variation, The halocline is noticeably better developed and the surface homogeneous layer is thinner in a low-salinity plume that hugs the coastline along the entire east coast of India, The plume is, on average, 50 km wide, with isohalines sloping down toward the coast. Most prominent in the geostrophic velocity field is the equatorward EICC. Its transport north of about 13 degrees N, computed with 1000 dbar as the level of reference, varies between 2.6 and 7.1 x 10(6) m(3) s(-1); just south of this latitude, a northwestward flow from offshore recurves and merges with the coastal current. At the southern end of the region surveyed, the transport is 7.7 x 10(6) m(3) s(-1). Recent model studies lead us to conclude that the EICC during the northeast monsoon is driven by winds along the east coast of India and Ekman pumping in the interior bay. In the south, Ekman pumping over the southwestern bay is responsible for the northwestward flow that merges with the EICC.

Anti-malarial herbal remedies of northeast India, Assam: An ethnobotanical survey

Ethnopharmacological relevance: Malaria is a serious public health problem in the north-eastern region of India including Assam, in view of development of chloroquine resistant Plasmodium falciparum. There is need for alternative and affordable therapy. Aim of the study: This study was conducted to document indigenous knowledge, usage customs and practices of medicinal plant species traditionally used by the residents of Sonitpur district of Tezpur, Assam to treat malaria and its associated symptoms. Materials and methods:A total of 50 randomly selected sampling represented by male (38.76%) and female respondents (12.24%) were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. Results: The present ethno-botanical survey revealed 22 species of plants belonging to 17 botanical families were reported to be used exclusively in this region for the treatment of malaria. Verbenaceae (three species), Menispermaceae (two species), and Acanthaceae (two species) botanical families represented the species that are most commonly cited in this survey work and the detailed use of plants has been collected and described. Conclusions: The most serious threat to the existing knowledge and practice on traditional medicinal plants included cultural change, particularly the influence of modernization and lack of interests shown by the next younger generations were the main problems reported by the informants during the field survey. Hence, the proper documentation of traditional medicinal plants being used as anti-malarial agents and related indigenous knowledge held by the tribal community is an important approach to control the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria reported in this survey work. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

Unsteady free convection flow in the stagnation-point region of a rotating sphere

The unsteady free convection boundary-layer flow in the forward stagnation-point region of a sphere, which is rotating with time-dependent angular velocity in an ambient fluid, has been studied. Both constant wall temperature and constant hear flux conditions have been considered. The non-linear coupled parabolic partial differential equations governing the flow have been solved numerically using an implicit finite-difference scheme. The skin friction and the heat transfer are enhanced by the buoyancy force. The effect of the buoyancy force is found to be more pronounced for smaller Prandtl numbers than for larger Prandtl numbers. For a given buoyancy force, the heat transfer increases with an increase in Prandtl number, but the skin friction decreases.

Unsteady free convection flow in the stagnation-point region of a three-dimensional body

The unsteady free convection flow in the stagnation-point region of a heated three-dimensional body placed in an ambient fluid is studied under boundary layer approximations. We have considered the case where there is an initial steady state that is perturbed by a step-change in the wall temperature. The non-linear coupled partial differential equations governing the free convection flow are solved numerically using a finite difference scheme. The presented results show the temporal development of the momentum and thermal boundary layer characteristics.

Free Energy Gap Dependence of the Electron-Transfer Rate from the Inverted to the Normal Region

numerical study of the free energy gap (FEG) dependence of the electron-transfer rate in polar solvents is presented. This study is based on the generalized multidimensional hybrid model, which not only includes the solvent polarization and the molecular vibration modes, but also the biphasic polar response of the solvent. The free energy gap dependence is found to be sensitive to several factors, including the solvent relaxation rate, the electronic coupling between the surfaces, the frequency of the high-frequency quantum vibrational mode, and the magnitude of the solvent reorganization energy. It is shown that in some cases solvent relaxation can play an important role even in the Marcus normal regime. The minimal hybrid model involves a large number of parameters, giving rise to a diverse non-Marcus FEG behavior which is often determined collectively by these parameters. The model gives the linear free energy gap dependence of the logarithmic rate over a substantial range of FEG, spanning from the normal to the inverted regime. However, even for favorable values of the relevant parameters, a linear free energy gap dependence of the rate could be obtained only over a range of 5000-6000 cm(-1) (compared to the experimentally observed range of 10000 cm(-1) reported by Benniston et al.). The present work suggests several extensions/generalizations of the hybrid model which might be necessary to fully understand the observed free energy gap dependence.

Immunochemical approach to the mapping of an assembled epitope of human chorionic gonadotropin: Proximity of CTP-alpha to the receptor binding region of the beta-subunit

A single-step solid-phase RIA (SS-SPRIA) developed in our laboratory using hybridoma culture supernatants has been utilised for the quantitation of epitope-paratope interactions. Using SS-SPRIA as a quantitative tool for the assessment of epitope stability, it was found that several assembled epitopes of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) are differentially stable to proteolysis and chemical modification. Based on these observations an approach has been developed for identifying the amino acid residues constituting an epitopic region. This approach has now been used to map an assembled epitope at/near the receptor binding region of the hormone. The mapped site forms a part of the seat belt region and the cystine knot region (C34-C38-C88-C90-H106). The carboxy terminal region of the alpha-subunit forms a part of the epitope indicating its proximity to the receptor binding region. These results are in agreement with the reported receptor binding region identified through other approaches and the X-ray crystal structure of hCG.

He II spectra of La, Ce and Yb: Novel features in the valence band region

He II photoelectron spectra of La, Ce and Yb show features which cannot be explained in terms of single electron excitations. It is proposed that these are due to formation of electron-hole paris.

Sensible heat fluxes during the active and break phases of the southwest monsoon over the Indian region

Based on the theory given by Saltzman and Ashe (1976), sensible heat fluxes are calculated for the active and break phases of the southwest monsoon over the Indian region. The conclusion drawn is that the sensible heat flux is generally larger during the break monsoon situation when compared with that for the active monsoon situation. The synoptic heat flux is negligible when compared with mean and diurnal heat fluxes over the Indian region even during the monsoon season.

Using tau polarization to probe the stau co-annihilation region of the minimal supergravity model at the LHC

The minimal supergravity model predicts the polarization of the tau coming from the stau to bino decay in the co-annihilation region to +1. This can be exploited to extract this soft tau signal at LHC and also to measure the tiny mass differences between the stau and the bi lightest superparticle. Moreover, this strategy will be applicable for a wider class of bino lightest superparticle models, where the lighter stau has a right component at least of similar size as the left.

Effects Of 5' Flanking Sequences And Changes In The 5' Internal Control Region On The Transcription Of Rice Transfer-Rna Gcc Cly Gene

A stretch of 71 nucleotides in a 1.2 kilobase pair Pst I fragment of rice DNA was identified as tRNA~ gene by hybridization and nucleotide sequence analyses. The hybridization of genomic DNA with the tRNA gene showed that there are about 10 glycine tRNA genes per diploid rice genome. The 3' and 5' internal control regions, where RNA polymerase III and transcription factors bind, were found to be present in the coding sequence. The gene was transcribed into a 4S product in an yeast cell-free extract. The substitution of 5' internal control region with analogous sequences from either M13mpl9 or M13mpl8 DNA did not affect the transcription of the gene in vitro. The changes in three highly conserved nucleotides in the consensus 5' internal control region (RGYNNARYGG; R = purine, Y = pyrimidine, N = any nucleotide) did not affect transcription showing that these nucleotides are not essential for promotion of transcription. There were two 16 base pair repeats, 'TGTTTGTTTCAGCTTA' at - 130 and - 375 positions upstream from the start of the gene. Deletion of 5' flanking sequences including the 16 base pair repeat at - 375 showed increased transcription indicating that these sequences negatively modulate the expression of the gene.

High-temperature superconductivity in the 100 K region in perovskite-related oxides of the Ln-Ba-Cu-O (Ln=Y or La) system

Oxides of the Y-Ba-Cu-O system are found to show onset of superconductivity in the 100–120 K region.