Estimating Frequencies of Minority Nevirapine-Resistant Strains in Chronically HIV-1-Infected Individuals Naive to Nevirapine by Using Stochastic Simulations and a Mathematical Model

Nevirapine forms the mainstay of our efforts to curtail the pediatric AIDS epidemic through prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1. A key limitation, however, is the rapid selection of HIV-1 strains resistant to nevirapine following the administration of a single dose. This rapid selection of resistance suggests that nevirapine-resistant strains preexist in HIV-1 patients and may adversely affect outcomes of treatment. The frequencies of nevirapine-resistant strains in vivo, however, remain poorly estimated, possibly because they exist as a minority below current assay detection limits. Here, we employ stochastic simulations and a mathematical model to estimate the frequencies of strains carrying different combinations of the common nevirapine resistance mutations K103N, V106A, Y181C, Y188C, and G190A in chronically infected HIV-1 patients naive to nevirapine. We estimate the relative fitness of mutant strains from an independent analysis of previous competitive growth assays. We predict that single mutants are likely to preexist in patients at frequencies (similar to 0.01% to 0.001%) near or below current assay detection limits (>0.01%), emphasizing the need for more-sensitive assays. The existence of double mutants is subject to large stochastic variations. Triple and higher mutants are predicted not to exist. Our estimates are robust to variations in the recombination rate, cellular superinfection frequency, and the effective population size. Thus, with 10(7) to 10(8) infected cells in HIV-1 patients, even when undetected, nevirapine-resistant genomes may exist in substantial numbers and compromise efforts to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1, accelerate the failure of subsequent antiretroviral treatments, and facilitate the transmission of drug resistance.

Evolution of polyembryony: Consequences to the fitness of mother and offspring

Polyembryony, referring here to situations where a nucellar embryo is formed along with the zygotic embryo, has different consequences for the fitness of the maternal parent and offspring. We have developed genetic and inclusive fitness models to derive the conditions that permit the evolution of polyembryony under maternal and offspring control. We have also derived expressions for the optimal allocation (evolutionarily stable strategy, ESS) of resources between zygotic and nucellar embryos. It is seen that (i) Polyembryony can evolve more easily under maternal control than under that of either the offspring or the ‘selfish’ endosperm. Under maternal regulation, evolution of polyembryony can occur for any clutch size. Under offspring control polyembryony is more likely to evolve for high clutch sizes, and is unlikely for low clutch sizes (<3). This conflict between mother and offspring decreases with increase in clutch size and favours the evolution of polyembryony at high clutch sizes, (ii) Polyembryony can evolve for values of “x” (the power of the function relating fitness to seed resource) greater than 0.5758; the possibility of its occurrence increases with “x”, indicating that a more efficient conversion of resource into fitness favours polyembryony. (iii) Under both maternal parent and offspring control, the evolution of polyembryony becomes increasingly unlikely as the level of inbreeding increases, (iv) The proportion of resources allocated to the nucellar embryo at ESS is always higher than that which maximizes the rate of spread of the allele against a non-polyembryonic allele.Finally we argue that polyembryony is a maternal counter strategy to compensate for the loss in her fitness due to brood reduction caused by sibling rivalry. We support this assertion by two empirical evidences: (a) the extent of polyembryony is positively correlated with brood reduction inCitrus, and (b) species exhibiting polyembryony are more often those that frequently exhibit brood reduction.