Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

Data acquisition and processing at ocean bottom for a Tsunami warning system

The design and development of a Bottom Pressure Recorder for a Tsunami Early Warning System is described here. The special requirements that it should satisfy for the specific application of deployment at ocean bed and pressure monitoring of the water column above are dealt with. A high-resolution data digitization and low circuit power consumption are typical ones. The implementation details of the data sensing and acquisition part to meet these are also brought out. The data processing part typically encompasses a Tsunami detection algorithm that should detect an event of significance in the background of a variety of periodic and aperiodic noise signals. Such an algorithm and its simulation are presented. Further, the results of sea trials carried out on the system off the Chennai coast are presented. The high quality and fidelity of the data prove that the system design is robust despite its low cost and with suitable augmentations, is ready for a full-fledged deployment at ocean bed. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health Monitoring Of Composite Structures Based On Acoustic Wave Sensing Using Fiber Optic Sensors

Structural Health Monitoring has gained wide acceptance in the recent past as a means to monitor a structure and provide an early warning of an unsafe condition using real-time data. Utilization of structurally integrated, distributed sensors to monitor the health of a structure through accurate interpretation of sensor signals and real-time data processing can greatly reduce the inspection burden. The rapid improvement of the Fiber Optic Sensor technology for strain, vibration, ultrasonic and acoustic emission measurements in recent times makes it feasible alternative to the traditional strain gauges, PVDF and conventional Piezoelectric sensors used for Non Destructive Evaluation (NDE) and Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). Optical fiber-based sensors offer advantages over conventional strain gauges, and PZT devices in terms of size, ease of embedment, immunity from electromagnetic interference (EMI) and potential for multiplexing a number of sensors. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the acoustic wave sensing using Extrinsic Fabry-Perot Interferometric (EFPI) sensor on a GFRP composite laminates. For this purpose experiments have been carried out initially for strain measurement with Fiber Optic Sensors on GFRP laminates with intentionally introduced holes of different sizes as defects. The results obtained from these experiments are presented in this paper. Numerical modeling has been carried out to obtain the relationship between the defect size and strain.

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) Using Strain Gauges, PVDF Film and Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) Sensors: A Comparative Study

The term Structural Health Monitoring has gained wide acceptance in the recent pastas a means to monitor a structure and provide an early warning of an unsafe conditionusing real-time data. Utilization of structurally integrated, distributed sensors tomonitor the health of a structure through accurate interpretation of sensor signals andreal-time data processing can greatly reduce the inspection burden. The rapidimprovement of the Fiber Bragg Grating sensor technology for strain, vibration andacoustic emission measurements in recent times make them a feasible alternatives tothe traditional strain gauges transducers and conventional Piezoelectric sensors usedfor Non Destructive Evaluation (NDE) and Structural Health Monitoring (SHM).Optical fiber-based sensors offers advantages over conventional strain gauges, PVDFfilm and PZT devices in terms of size, ease of embedment, immunity fromelectromagnetic interference(EMI) and potential for multiplexing a number ofsensors. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of Fiber BraggGrating sensor and compare its utility with the conventional strain gauges and PVDFfilm sensors. For this purpose experiments are being carried out in the laboratory on acomposite wing of a mini air vehicle (MAV). In this paper, the results obtained fromthese preliminary experiments are discussed.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

No-reference image quality assessment using modified extreme learning machine classifier

In this paper, we present a machine learning approach to measure the visual quality of JPEG-coded images. The features for predicting the perceived image quality are extracted by considering key human visual sensitivity (HVS) factors such as edge amplitude, edge length, background activity and background luminance. Image quality assessment involves estimating the functional relationship between HVS features and subjective test scores. The quality of the compressed images are obtained without referring to their original images ('No Reference' metric). Here, the problem of quality estimation is transformed to a classification problem and solved using extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. In ELM, the input weights and the bias values are randomly chosen and the output weights are analytically calculated. The generalization performance of the ELM algorithm for classification problems with imbalance in the number of samples per quality class depends critically on the input weights and the bias values. Hence, we propose two schemes, namely the k-fold selection scheme (KS-ELM) and the real-coded genetic algorithm (RCGA-ELM) to select the input weights and the bias values such that the generalization performance of the classifier is a maximum. Results indicate that the proposed schemes significantly improve the performance of ELM classifier under imbalance condition for image quality assessment. The experimental results prove that the estimated visual quality of the proposed RCGA-ELM emulates the mean opinion score very well. The experimental results are compared with the existing JPEG no-reference image quality metric and full-reference structural similarity image quality metric.

Impact dynamics of high Weber number drops on chemically modified metallic surfaces

Hydrophobic/superhydrophobic metallic surfaces prepared via chemical treatment are encountered in many industrial scenarios involving the impingement of spray droplets. The effectiveness of such surfaces is understood through the analysis of droplet impact experiments. In the present study, three target surfaces with aluminum (Al-6061) as base material-acid-etched, Octadecyl Trichloro Silane (OTS) coated, and acid-etched plus OTS-coated-were prepared. Experiments on the impact of inertia dominated water drops on these chemically modified aluminum surfaces were carried out with the objective to highlight the effect of chemical treatment on the target surfaces on key sub-processes occurring in drop impact phenomenon. High speed videos of the entire drop impact dynamics were captured at three Weber number (We) conditions representative of high We (We > 200) regime. During the early stages of drop spreading, the drop impact resulted in ejection of secondary droplets from spreading drop front on the etched surfaces resembling prompt splash on rough surfaces whereas no such splashing was observable on untreated aluminum surface. Prominent development of undulations (fingers) were observed at the rim of drop spreading on the etched surfaces; between the etched surfaces the OTS-coated surface showed a subdued development of fingers than the uncoated surface. The impacted drops showed intense receding on OTS-coated surfaces whereas on the etched surface a highly irregular receding, with drop liquid sticking to the surface, was observed. Quantitative analyses were performed to reveal the effect of target surface characteristics on drop impact parameters such as temporal variation of spread factor of drop lamella, temporal variation of average finger length during spreading phase, maximum drop spreading, time taken to attain maximum spreading, sensitivity of maximum spreading to We, number of fingers at maximum spreading, and average receding velocity of drop lamella. Existing models for maximum drop spreading showed reasonably good agreement with the experimental measurements on the target surfaces except the acid-etched surface. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.