Predictability of nonstationary time series using wavelet and EMD based ARMA models

Research has been undertaken to ascertain the predictability of non-stationary time series using wavelet and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) based time series models. Methods have been developed in the past to decompose a time series into components. Forecasting of these components combined with random component could yield predictions. Using this ideology, wavelet and EMD analyses have been incorporated separately which decomposes a time series into independent orthogonal components with both time and frequency localizations. The component series are fit with specific auto-regressive models to obtain forecasts which are later combined to obtain the actual predictions. Four non-stationary streamflow sites (USGS data resources) of monthly total volumes and two non-stationary gridded rainfall sites (IMD) of monthly total rainfall are considered for the study. The predictability is checked for six and twelve months ahead forecasts across both the methodologies. Based on performance measures, it is observed that wavelet based method has better prediction capabilities over EMD based method despite some of the limitations of time series methods and the manner in which decomposition takes place. Finally, the study concludes that the wavelet based time series algorithm can be used to model events such as droughts with reasonable accuracy. Also, some modifications that can be made in the model have been discussed that could extend the scope of applicability to other areas in the field of hydrology. (C) 2013 Elesvier B.V. All rights reserved.

A generalised cole-hopf transformation for nonlinear parabolic and hyperbolic equations

The Cole-Hopf transformation has been generalized to generate a large class of nonlinear parabolic and hyperbolic equations which are exactly linearizable. These include model equations of exchange processes and turbulence. The methods to solve the corresponding linear equations have also been indicated.La transformation de Cole et de Hopf a été généralisée en vue d'engendrer une classe d'équations nonlinéaires paraboliques et hyperboliques qui peuvent être rendues linéaires de façon exacte. Elles comprennent des équations modèles de procédés d'échange et de turbulence. Les méthodes pour résoudre les équations linéaires correspondantes ont également été indiquées.