Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Human Action Recognition in Compressed Domain using PBL-McRBFN Approach

Large variations in human actions lead to major challenges in computer vision research. Several algorithms are designed to solve the challenges. Algorithms that stand apart, help in solving the challenge in addition to performing faster and efficient manner. In this paper, we propose a human cognition inspired projection based learning for person-independent human action recognition in the H.264/AVC compressed domain and demonstrate a PBL-McRBEN based approach to help take the machine learning algorithms to the next level. Here, we use gradient image based feature extraction process where the motion vectors and quantization parameters are extracted and these are studied temporally to form several Group of Pictures (GoP). The GoP is then considered individually for two different bench mark data sets and the results are classified using person independent human action recognition. The functional relationship is studied using Projection Based Learning algorithm of the Meta-cognitive Radial Basis Function Network (PBL-McRBFN) which has a cognitive and meta-cognitive component. The cognitive component is a radial basis function network while the Meta-Cognitive Component(MCC) employs self regulation. The McC emulates human cognition like learning to achieve better performance. Performance of the proposed approach can handle sparse information in compressed video domain and provides more accuracy than other pixel domain counterparts. Performance of the feature extraction process achieved more than 90% accuracy using the PTIL-McRBFN which catalyzes the speed of the proposed high speed action recognition algorithm. We have conducted twenty random trials to find the performance in GoP. The results are also compared with other well known classifiers in machine learning literature.

Fuzzy waste load allocation model: a multiobjective approach

Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (FWLAM), developed in an earlier study, derives the optimal fractional levels, for the base flow conditions, considering the goals of the Pollution Control Agency (PCA) and dischargers. The Modified Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (MFWLAM) developed subsequently is a stochastic model and considers the moments (mean, variance and skewness) of water quality indicators, incorporating uncertainty due to randomness of input variables along with uncertainty due to imprecision. The risk of low water quality is reduced significantly by using this modified model, but inclusion of new constraints leads to a low value of acceptability level, A, interpreted as the maximized minimum satisfaction in the system. To improve this value, a new model, which is a combination Of FWLAM and MFWLAM, is presented, allowing for some violations in the constraints of MFWLAM. This combined model is a multiobjective optimization model having the objectives, maximization of acceptability level and minimization of violation of constraints. Fuzzy multiobjective programming, goal programming and fuzzy goal programming are used to find the solutions. For the optimization model, Probabilistic Global Search Lausanne (PGSL) is used as a nonlinear optimization tool. The methodology is applied to a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in south India. The model results in a compromised solution of a higher value of acceptability level as compared to MFWLAM, with a satisfactory value of risk. Thus the goal of risk minimization is achieved with a comparatively better value of acceptability level.

A Nonlinear Approach for Re-entry Guidance of Reusable Launch Vehicles Using Model Predictive Static Programming

A nonlinear suboptimal guidance scheme is developed for the reentry phase of the reusable launch vehicles. A recently developed methodology, named as model predictive static programming (MPSP), is implemented which combines the philosophies of nonlinear model predictive control theory and approximate dynamic programming. This technique provides a finite time nonlinear suboptimal guidance law which leads to a rapid solution of the guidance history update. It does not have to suffer from computational difficulties and can be implemented online. The system dynamics is propagated through the flight corridor to the end of the reentry phase considering energy as independent variable and angle of attack as the active control variable. All the terminal constraints are satisfied. Among the path constraints, the normal load is found to be very constrictive. Hence, an extra effort has been made to keep the normal load within a specified limit and monitoring its sensitivity to the perturbation.

Optimum Load Shedding Through Programming Techniques

This paper obtains a new accurate model for sensitivity in power systems and uses it in conjunction with linear programming for the solution of load-shedding problems with a minimum loss of loads. For cases where the error in the sensitivity model increases, other linear programming and quadratic programming models have been developed, assuming currents at load buses as variables and not load powers. A weighted error criterion has been used to take priority schedule into account; it can be either a linear or a quadratic function of the errors, and depending upon the function appropriate programming techniques are to be employed.

Robust Reentry Guidance of a Reusable Launch Vehicle Using Model Predictive Static Programming

A robust suboptimal reentry guidance scheme is presented for a reusable launch vehicle using the recently developed, computationally efficient model predictive static programming. The formulation uses the nonlinear vehicle dynamics with a spherical and rotating Earth, hard constraints for desired terminal conditions, and an innovative cost function having several components with associated weighting factors that can account for path and control constraints in a soft constraint manner, thereby leading to smooth solutions of the guidance parameters. The proposed guidance essentially shapes the trajectory of the vehicle by computing the necessary angle of attack and bank angle that the vehicle should execute. The path constraints are the structural load constraint, thermal load constraint, bounds on the angle of attack, and bounds on the bank angle. In addition, the terminal constraints include the three-dimensional position and velocity vector components at the end of the reentry. Whereas the angle-of-attack command is generated directly, the bank angle command is generated by first generating the required heading angle history and then using it in a dynamic inversion loop considering the heading angle dynamics. Such a two-loop synthesis of bank angle leads to better management of the vehicle trajectory and avoids mathematical complexity as well. Moreover, all bank angle maneuvers have been confined to the middle of the trajectory and the vehicle ends the reentry segment with near-zero bank angle, which is quite desirable. It has also been demonstrated that the proposed guidance has sufficient robustness for state perturbations as well as parametric uncertainties in the model.

Model Predictive Static Programming: A Computationally Efficient Technique For Suboptimal Control Design

Combining the philosophies of nonlinear model predictive control and approximate dynamic programming, a new suboptimal control design technique is presented in this paper, named as model predictive static programming (MPSP), which is applicable for finite-horizon nonlinear problems with terminal constraints. This technique is computationally efficient, and hence, can possibly be implemented online. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by designing an ascent phase guidance scheme for a ballistic missile propelled by solid motors. A comparison study with a conventional gradient method shows that the MPSP solution is quite close to the optimal solution.

A linear programming approach for estimating the structure of a sparse linear genetic network from transcript profiling data

Background: A genetic network can be represented as a directed graph in which a node corresponds to a gene and a directed edge specifies the direction of influence of one gene on another. The reconstruction of such networks from transcript profiling data remains an important yet challenging endeavor. A transcript profile specifies the abundances of many genes in a biological sample of interest. Prevailing strategies for learning the structure of a genetic network from high-dimensional transcript profiling data assume sparsity and linearity. Many methods consider relatively small directed graphs, inferring graphs with up to a few hundred nodes. This work examines large undirected graphs representations of genetic networks, graphs with many thousands of nodes where an undirected edge between two nodes does not indicate the direction of influence, and the problem of estimating the structure of such a sparse linear genetic network (SLGN) from transcript profiling data. Results: The structure learning task is cast as a sparse linear regression problem which is then posed as a LASSO (l1-constrained fitting) problem and solved finally by formulating a Linear Program (LP). A bound on the Generalization Error of this approach is given in terms of the Leave-One-Out Error. The accuracy and utility of LP-SLGNs is assessed quantitatively and qualitatively using simulated and real data. The Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) initiative provides gold standard data sets and evaluation metrics that enable and facilitate the comparison of algorithms for deducing the structure of networks. The structures of LP-SLGNs estimated from the INSILICO1, INSILICO2 and INSILICO3 simulated DREAM2 data sets are comparable to those proposed by the first and/or second ranked teams in the DREAM2 competition. The structures of LP-SLGNs estimated from two published Saccharomyces cerevisae cell cycle transcript profiling data sets capture known regulatory associations. In each S. cerevisiae LP-SLGN, the number of nodes with a particular degree follows an approximate power law suggesting that its degree distributions is similar to that observed in real-world networks. Inspection of these LP-SLGNs suggests biological hypotheses amenable to experimental verification. Conclusion: A statistically robust and computationally efficient LP-based method for estimating the topology of a large sparse undirected graph from high-dimensional data yields representations of genetic networks that are biologically plausible and useful abstractions of the structures of real genetic networks. Analysis of the statistical and topological properties of learned LP-SLGNs may have practical value; for example, genes with high random walk betweenness, a measure of the centrality of a node in a graph, are good candidates for intervention studies and hence integrated computational – experimental investigations designed to infer more realistic and sophisticated probabilistic directed graphical model representations of genetic networks. The LP-based solutions of the sparse linear regression problem described here may provide a method for learning the structure of transcription factor networks from transcript profiling and transcription factor binding motif data.

Multi-state-choice automata model for expedient learning in random environment

A new automata model Mr,k, with a conceptually significant innovation in the form of multi-state alternatives at each instance, is proposed in this study. Computer simulations of the Mr,k, model in the context of feature selection in an unsupervised environment has demonstrated the superiority of the model over similar models without this multi-state-choice innovation.

A generalized Linear Programming based approach to optimal divisible load scheduling

In this paper we propose a general Linear Programming (LP) based formulation and solution methodology for obtaining optimal solution to the load distribution problem in divisible load scheduling. We exploit the power of the versatile LP formulation to propose algorithms that yield exact solutions to several very general load distribution problems for which either no solutions or only heuristic solutions were available. We consider both star (single-level tree) networks and linear daisy chain networks, having processors equipped with front-ends, that form the generic models for several important network topologies. We consider arbitrary processing node availability or release times and general models for communication delays and computation time that account for constant overheads such as start up times in communication and computation. The optimality of the LP based algorithms is proved rigorously.

Vehicle Routing Problem with Load Compatibility Constraints

The major contribution of this paper is to introduce load compatibility constraints in the mathematical model for the capacitated vehicle routing problem with pickup and deliveries. The employee transportation problem in the Indian call centers and transportation of hazardous materials provided the motivation for this variation. In this paper we develop a integer programming model for the vehicle routing problem with load compatibility constraints. Specifically two types of load compatability constraints are introduced, namely mutual exclusion and conditional exclusion. The model is demonstrated with an application from the employee transportation problem in the Indian call centers.

A reinforcement learning approach to automatic generation control

This paper formulates the automatic generation control (AGC) problem as a stochastic multistage decision problem. A strategy for solving this new AGC problem formulation is presented by using a reinforcement learning (RL) approach This method of obtaining an AGC controller does not depend on any knowledge of the system model and more importantly it admits considerable flexibility in defining the control objective. Two specific RL based AGC algorithms are presented. The first algorithm uses the traditional control objective of limiting area control error (ACE) excursions, where as, in the second algorithm, the controller can restore the load-generation balance by only monitoring deviation in tie line flows and system frequency and it does not need to know or estimate the composite ACE signal as is done by all current approaches. The effectiveness and versatility of the approaches has been demonstrated using a two area AGC model. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Machine-tool selection and operation allocation in FMS: solving a fuzzy goal-programming model using a genetic algorithm

The decision-making process for machine-tool selection and operation allocation in a flexible manufacturing system (FMS) usually involves multiple conflicting objectives. Thus, a fuzzy goal-programming model can be effectively applied to this decision problem. The paper addresses application of a fuzzy goal-programming concept to model the problem of machine-tool selection and operation allocation with explicit considerations given to objectives of minimizing the total cost of machining operation, material handling and set-up. The constraints pertaining to the capacity of machines, tool magazine and tool life are included in the model. A genetic algorithm (GA)-based approach is adopted to optimize this fuzzy goal-programming model. An illustrative example is provided and some results of computational experiments are reported.

Computationally Efficient Sub-optimal Mid Course Guidance Using Model Predictive Static Programming (MPSP)

For a homing interceptor, suitable initial condition must be achieved by mid course guidance scheme for its maximum effectiveness. To achieve desired end goal of any mid course guidance scheme, two point boundary value problem must be solved online with all realistic constrain. A Newly developed computationally efficient technique named as MPSP (Model Predictive Static Programming) is utilized in this paper for obtaining suboptimal solution of optimal mid course guidance. Time to go uncertainty is avoided in this formulation by making use of desired position where midcourse guidance terminate and terminal guidance takes over. A suitable approach angle towards desired point also can be specified in this guidance law formulation. This feature makes this law particularly attractive because warhead effectiveness issue can be indirectly solved in mid course phase.