Effect of uncertainty on helicopter performance predictions

The effect of uncertainties on performance predictions of a helicopter is studied in this article. The aeroelastic parameters such as the air density, blade profile drag coefficient, main rotor angular velocity, main rotor radius, and blade chord are considered as uncertain variables. The propagation of these uncertainties in the performance parameters such as thrust coefficient, figure of merit, induced velocity, and power required are studied using Monte Carlo simulation and the first-order reliability method. The Rankine-Froude momentum theory is used for performance prediction in hover, axial climb, and forward flight. The propagation of uncertainty causes large deviations from the baseline deterministic predictions, which undoubtedly affect both the achievable performance and the safety of the helicopter. The numerical results in this article provide useful bounds on helicopter power requirements.

A method for Estimating the Degree of Uncertainty With Respect to Life Cycle Assessment During Design

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to estimate a product's environmental impact. Using LCA during the earlier stages of design may produce erroneous results since information available on the product's lifecycle is typically incomplete at these stages. The resulting uncertainty must be accounted for in the decision-making process. This paper proposes a method for estimating the environmental impact of a product's life cycle and the associated degree of uncertainty of that impact using information generated during the design process. Total impact is estimated based on aggregation of individual product life cycle processes impacts. Uncertainty estimation is based on assessing the mismatch between the information required and the information available about the product life cycle in each uncertainty category, as well as their integration. The method is evaluated using pre-defined scenarios with varying uncertainty. DOI: 10.1115/1.4002163]

Uncertainty Quantification in Ultrasonic Wave Based Detection of Delamination in Composite Structures

In this paper we consider the problem of guided wave scattering from delamination in laminated composite and further the problem of estimating delamination size and layer-wise location from the guided wave measurement. Damage location and region/size can be estimated from time of flight and wave packet spread, whereas depth information can be obtained from wavenumber modulation in the carrier packet. The key challenge is that these information are highly sensitive to various uncertainties. Variation in reflected and transmitted wave amplitude in a bar due to boundary/interface uncertainty is studied to illustrate such effect. Effect of uncertainty in material parameters on the time of flight are estimated for longitudinal wave propagation. To evaluate the effect of uncertainty in delamination detection, we employ a time domain spectral finite element (tSFEM) scheme where wave propagation is modeled using higher-order interpolation with shape function have spectral convergence properties. A laminated composite beam with layer-wise placement of delamination is considered in the simulation. Scattering due to the presence of delamination is analyzed. For a single delamination, two identical waveforms are created at the two fronts of the delamination, whereas waves in the two sub-laminates create two independent waveforms with different wavelengths. Scattering due to multiple delaminations in composite beam is studied.

Effect of matrix cracking and material uncertainty on composite plates

A laminated composite plate model based on first order shear deformation theory is implemented using the finite element method.Matrix cracks are introduced into the finite element model by considering changes in the A, B and D matrices of composites. The effects of different boundary conditions, laminate types and ply angles on the behavior of composite plates with matrix cracks are studied.Finally, the effect of material property uncertainty, which is important for composite material on the composite plate, is investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. Probabilistic estimates of damage detection reliability in composite plates are made for static and dynamic measurements. It is found that the effect of uncertainty must be considered for accurate damage detection in composite structures. The estimates of variance obtained for observable system properties due to uncertainty can be used for developing more robust damage detection algorithms. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uniformly valid analytical solution to the problem of a decaying shock wave

An explicit representation of an analytical solution to the problem of decay of a plane shock wave of arbitrary strength is proposed. The solution satisfies the basic equations exactly. The approximation lies in the (approximate) satisfaction of two of the Rankine-Hugoniot conditions. The error incurred is shown to be very small even for strong shocks. This solution analyses the interaction of a shock of arbitrary strength with a centred simple wave overtaking it, and describes a complete history of decay with a remarkable accuracy even for strong shocks. For a weak shock, the limiting law of motion obtained from the solution is shown to be in complete agreement with the Friedrichs theory. The propagation law of the non-uniform shock wave is determined, and the equations for shock and particle paths in the (x, t)-plane are obtained. The analytic solution presented here is uniformly valid for the entire flow field behind the decaying shock wave.

A Method for Evaluation of Product Lifecycle Alternatives under Uncertainty

In each stage of product development, we need to take decisions, by evaluating multiple product alternatives based on multiple criteria. Classical evaluation methods like weighted objectives method assumes certainty about information available during product development. However, designers often must evaluate under uncertainty. Often the likely performance, cost or environmental impacts of a product proposal could be estimated only with certain confidence, which may vary from one proposal to another. In such situations, the classical approaches to evaluation can give misleading results. There is a need for a method that can aid in decision making by supporting quantitative comparison of alternatives to identify the most promising alternative, under uncertain information about the alternatives. A method called confidence weighted objectives method is developed to compare the whole life cycle of product proposals using multiple evaluation criteria under various levels of uncertainty with non crisp values. It estimates the overall worth of proposal and confidence on the estimate, enabling deferment of decision making when decisions cannot be made using current information available.

Representation of evidence: An approach to uncertainty handling in knowledge-based systems

Many knowledge based systems (KBS) transform a situation information into an appropriate decision using an in built knowledge base. As the knowledge in real world situation is often uncertain, the degree of truth of a proposition provides a measure of uncertainty in the underlying knowledge. This uncertainty can be evaluated by collecting `evidence' about the truth or falsehood of the proposition from multiple sources. In this paper we propose a simple framework for representing uncertainty in using the notion of an evidence space.

Identification of the nature of platinum related midgap state in silicon by deep level transient spectroscopy

In this article, we present the detailed investigations on platinum related midgap state corresponding to E-c -0.52 eV probed by deep level transient spectroscopy. By irradiating the platinum doped samples with high-energy (1.1 MeV) gamma rays, we observed that the concentration of the midgap state increases and follows a square dependence with irradiation dose. However, the concentration of the acceptor corresponding to E-c -20.28 eV remained constant. Furthermore, from the studies on passivation by atomic hydrogen and thermal reactivation, we noticed that the E-c -0.52 eV level reappears in the samples annealed at high temperatures after hydrogenation. The interaction of platinum with various defects and the qualitative arguments based on the law of mass action suggest that the platinum related midgap defect might possibly correspond to the interstitial platinum-divacancy complex (V-Pt-V).

Structure and Rheology of Cationic Molecular Hydrogels of Quinuclidine Grafted Bile Salts. Influence of the Ionic Strength and Counter-Ion type

Quinuclidine grafted cationic bile salts are forming salted hydrogels. An extensive investigation of the effect of the electrolyte and counterions on the gelation has been envisaged. The special interest of the quinuclidine grafted bile salt is due to its broader experimental range of gelation to study the effect of electrolyte. Rheological features of the hydrogels are typical of enthalpic networks exhibiting a scaling law of the elastic shear modulus with the concentration (scaling exponent 2.2) modeling cellular solids in which the bending modulus is the dominant parameter. The addition of monovalent salt (NaCl) favors the formation of gels in a first range (0.00117 g cm-3 (0.02 M) < TNaCl < 0.04675 g cm-3 (0.8 M)). At larger salt concentrations, the gels become more heterogeneous with nodal zones in the micron scale. Small-angle neutron scattering experiments have been used to characterize the rigid fibers ( ≈ 68 Å) and the nodal zones. Stress sweep and creeprecovery measurements are used to relate the lack of linear viscoelastic domain to a mechanism of disentanglement of the fibers from their associations into fagots. The electrostatic interactions can be screened by addition of salt to induce a progressive evolution toward flocculation. SEM, UV absorbance, and SAXS study of the Bragg peak at large Q-values complete the investigation.

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA)problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max-min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in India.

Dynamics of Barrierless and Activated Chemical Reactions in a Dispersive Medium within the Fractional Diffusion Equation Approach

Barrierless chemical reactions have often been modeled as a Brownian motion on a one-dimensional harmonic potential energy surface with a position-dependent reaction sink or window located near the minimum of the surface. This simple (but highly successful) description leads to a nonexponential survival probability only at small to intermediate times but exponential decay in the long-time limit. However, in several reactive events involving proteins and glasses, the reactions are found to exhibit a strongly nonexponential (power law) decay kinetics even in the long time. In order to address such reactions, here, we introduce a model of barrierless chemical reaction where the motion along the reaction coordinate sustains dispersive diffusion. A complete analytical solution of the model can be obtained only in the frequency domain, but an asymptotic solution is obtained in the limit of long time. In this case, the asymptotic long-time decay of the survival probability is a power law of the Mittag−Leffler functional form. When the barrier height is increased, the decay of the survival probability still remains nonexponential, in contrast to the ordinary Brownian motion case where the rate is given by the Smoluchowski limit of the well-known Kramers' expression. Interestingly, the reaction under dispersive diffusion is shown to exhibit strong dependence on the initial state of the system, thus predicting a strong dependence on the excitation wavelength for photoisomerization reactions in a dispersive medium. The theory also predicts a fractional viscosity dependence of the rate, which is often observed in the reactions occurring in complex environments.

Modelling of solute transport in a mild heterogeneous porous medium using stochastic finite element method: Effects of random source conditions

Randomness in the source condition other than the heterogeneity in the system parameters can also be a major source of uncertainty in the concentration field. Hence, a more general form of the problem formulation is necessary to consider randomness in both source condition and system parameters. When the source varies with time, the unsteady problem, can be solved using the unit response function. In the case of random system parameters, the response function becomes a random function and depends on the randomness in the system parameters. In the present study, the source is modelled as a random discrete process with either a fixed interval or a random interval (the Poisson process). In this study, an attempt is made to assess the relative effects of various types of source uncertainties on the probabilistic behaviour of the concentration in a porous medium while the system parameters are also modelled as random fields. Analytical expressions of mean and covariance of concentration due to random discrete source are derived in terms of mean and covariance of unit response function. The probabilistic behaviour of the random response function is obtained by using a perturbation-based stochastic finite element method (SFEM), which performs well for mild heterogeneity. The proposed method is applied for analysing both the 1-D as well as the 3-D solute transport problems. The results obtained with SFEM are compared with the Monte Carlo simulation for 1-D problems.

Correlation of thermodynamic properties of chloromethanes

A correlation for entropy and enthalpy based on the two-parameter law of corresponding states and the reference substance concept has been obtained. For 199 points tested, the over-all average absolute deviation and the maximum deviations in the calculated values of entropy with the available data are 0.74 and 7.20%. The corresponding deviations of enthalpy are 1.86 and 15.0%, respectively. A compressibility chart for chloromethanes has been made and shown to be superior to existing charts. For 102 points tested, the average absolute and maximum deviations in the compressibilities were 1.80 and 19.5%, respectively.