Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Revisiting the earthquake sources in the Himalaya: Perspectives on past seismicity

The similar to 2500 km-long Himalaya plate boundary experienced three great earthquakes during the past century, but none of them generated any surface rupture. The segments between the 1905-1934 and the 1897-1950 sources, known as the central and Assam seismic gaps respectively, have long been considered holding potential for future great earthquakes. This paper addresses two issues concerning earthquakes along the Himalaya plate boundary. One, the absence of surface rupture associated with the great earthquakes, vis-a-vis the purported large slip observed from paleoseismological investigations and two, the current understanding of the status of the seismic gaps in the Central Himalaya and Assam, in view of the paleoseismological and historical data being gathered. We suggest that the ruptures of earthquakes nucleating on the basal detachment are likely to be restricted by the crustal ramps and thus generate no surface ruptures, whereas those originating on the faults within the wedges promote upward propagation of rupture and displacement, as observed during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, that showed a peak offset of 7 m. The occasional reactivation of these thrust systems within the duplex zone may also be responsible for the observed temporal and spatial clustering of earthquakes in the Himalaya. Observations presented in this paper suggest that the last major earthquake in the Central Himalaya occurred during AD 1119-1292, rather than in 1505, as suggested in some previous studies and thus the gap in the plate boundary events is real. As for the Northwestern Himalaya, seismically generated sedimentary features identified in the 1950 source region are generally younger than AD 1400 and evidence for older events is sketchy. The 1897 Shillong earthquake is not a decollement event and its predecessor is probably similar to 1000 years old. Compared to the Central Himalaya, the Assam Gap is a corridor of low seismicity between two tectonically independent seismogenic source zones that cannot be considered as a seismic gap in the conventional sense. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.