Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Belief revision - an axiomatic approach

Belief revision systems aim at keeping a database consistent. They mostly concentrate on how to record and maintain dependencies. We propose an axiomatic system, called MFOT, as a solution to the problem of belief revision. MFOT has a set of proper axioms which selects a set of most plausible and consistent input beliefs. The proposed nonmonotonic inference rule further maintains consistency while generating the consequences of input beliefs. It also permits multiple property inheritance with exceptions. We have also examined some important properties of the proposed axiomatic system. We also propose a belief revision model that is object-centered. The relevance of such a model in maintaining the beliefs of a physician is examined.

Hydrodynamics of the Renn-Lubensky twist grain boundary phase, and the decoupled lamellar phase

The long-wavelength hydrodynamics of the Renn-Lubensky twist grain boundary phase with grain boundary angle 2pialpha, alpha irrational, is studied. We find three propagating sound modes, with two of the three sound speeds vanishing for propagation orthogonal to the grains, and one vanishing for propagation parallel to the grains as well. In addition, we find that the viscosities eta1, eta2, eta4, and eta5 diverge like 1/Absolute value of omega as frequency omega --> 0, with the divergent parts DELTAeta(i) satisfying DELTAeta1DELTAeta4=(DELTAeta5)2, exactly. Our results should also apply to the predicted decoupled lamellar phase.

Quasicrystals, crystals and multiple twins in rapidly solidified Al-Cr-Si, Al-Mn-Si and Al-Mn-Cr-Si alloys

The coexistence of quasicrystals and rational approximant structures (RAS) has been observed in melt-spun Al80Cr14Si6, Al80Mn14Si6 and Al75Mn10Cr5Si10 alloys. The presence of a b.c.c. alpha-AlMnSi phase in Al-Mn-Si and alpha-AlMnSi(Cr) phase in Al-Mn-Cr-Si has been seen. A multiple twinning around an irrational axis of the RAS has been reported in an aggregate of fine size cubic crystallites in all three alloys. Selected area diffraction patterns show that the crystalline aggregate symmetry is linked to the icosahedral point group symmetry (m35). Various ways of expressing the twin relationship in the cubic crystalline aggregates have been discussed. The thermal stability of the icosahedral phase at high temperatures reveals that the icosahedral phase in Al-Mn-Si and Al-Mn-Cr-Si alloys transforms to alpha-AlMnSi at temperatures of 690 and 670 K, respectively. In Al-Cr-Si alloy, heating to a high temperature (615 K) leads to the transformation of the icosahedral phase into a new metastable phase having an ordered cubic structure equivalent to alpha-AlMnSi. The occurrence of multiple twinning leading to icosahedral symmetry in the as-spun Al-Cr-Si alloy is presumably due to this metastable phase. Copyright (C) 1996 Acta Metallurgica Inc.

Context based service discovery for ubiquitous applications

Service discovery is vital in ubiquitous applications, where a large number of devices and software components collaborate unobtrusively and provide numerous services without user intervention. Existing service discovery schemes use a service matching process in order to offer services of interest to the users. Potentially, the context information of the users and surrounding environment can be used to improve the quality of service matching. To make use of context information in service matching, a service discovery technique needs to address certain challenges. Firstly, it is required that the context information shall have unambiguous representation. Secondly, the devices in the environment shall be able to disseminate high level and low level context information seamlessly in the different networks. And thirdly, dynamic nature of the context information be taken into account. We propose a C-IOB(Context-Information, Observation and Belief) based service discovery model which deals with the above challenges by processing the context information and by formulating the beliefs based on the observations. With these formulated beliefs the required services will be provided to the users. The method has been tested with a typical ubiquitous museum guide application over different cases. The simulation results are time efficient and quite encouraging.

Improved large-MIMO detection based on damped belief propagation

In this paper, we consider the application of belief propagation (BP) to achieve near-optimal signal detection in large multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems at low complexities. Large-MIMO architectures based on spatial multiplexing (V-BLAST) as well as non-orthogonal space-time block codes(STBC) from cyclic division algebra (CDA) are considered. We adopt graphical models based on Markov random fields (MRF) and factor graphs (FG). In the MRF based approach, we use pairwise compatibility functions although the graphical models of MIMO systems are fully/densely connected. In the FG approach, we employ a Gaussian approximation (GA) of the multi-antenna interference, which significantly reduces the complexity while achieving very good performance for large dimensions. We show that i) both MRF and FG based BP approaches exhibit large-system behavior, where increasingly closer to optimal performance is achieved with increasing number of dimensions, and ii) damping of messages/beliefs significantly improves the bit error performance.

The Future of Product Development in India

A product is reflects the constraints, beliefs and aspirations of a society. Product development both influences and is influenced by the growth of a society and its economy. India is a fast growing economy. We use a brief historical, socioeconomic account of India as a backdrop to detect the drivers and roadblocks to its economic and social growth. In this context, current and future trends of PD practice, education and research are sketched. Products are taken as artefacts of the act of designing, without limiting to only those created by industry in a market-economic context.

Additions to the z transform table

The ztransform method is a widely used tool for the analysis and synthesis of discrete systems. In this note a table of ztransform pairs when F(z) is an irrational function of z is given. The table is also useful for obtaining closed-form sums for some infinite series.

Context aware M-commerce services: C-IOB model approach

Context-aware computing is useful in providing individualized services focusing mainly on acquiring surrounding context of user. By comparison, only very little research has been completed in integrating context from different environments, despite of its usefulness in diverse applications such as healthcare, M-commerce and tourist guide applications. In particular, one of the most important criteria in providing personalized service in a highly dynamic environment and constantly changing user environment, is to develop a context model which aggregates context from different domains to infer context of an entity at the more abstract level. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a context model based on cognitive aspects to relate contextual information that better captures the observation of certain worlds of interest for a more sophisticated context-aware service. We developed a C-IOB (Context-Information, Observation, Belief) conceptual model to analyze the context data from physical, system, application, and social domains to infer context at the more abstract level. The beliefs developed about an entity (person, place, things) are primitive in most theories of decision making so that applications can use these beliefs in addition to history of transaction for providing intelligent service. We enhance our proposed context model by further classifying context information into three categories: a well-defined, a qualitative and credible context information to make the system more realistic towards real world implementation. The proposed model is deployed to assist a M-commerce application. The simulation results show that the service selection and service delivery of the system are high compared to traditional system.

A trust model for routing in MANETs: a cognitive agents based approach

Mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) is one of the successful wireless network paradigms which offers unrestricted mobility without depending on any underlying infrastructure. MANETs have become an exciting and im- portant technology in recent years because of the rapid proliferation of variety of wireless devices, and increased use of ad hoc networks in various applications. Like any other networks, MANETs are also prone to variety of attacks majorly in routing side, most of the proposed secured routing solutions based on cryptography and authentication methods have greater overhead, which results in latency problems and resource crunch problems, especially in energy side. The successful working of these mechanisms also depends on secured key management involving a trusted third authority, which is generally difficult to implement in MANET environ-ment due to volatile topology. Designing a secured routing algorithm for MANETs which incorporates the notion of trust without maintaining any trusted third entity is an interesting research problem in recent years. This paper propose a new trust model based on cognitive reasoning,which associates the notion of trust with all the member nodes of MANETs using a novel Behaviors-Observations- Beliefs(BOB) model. These trust values are used for detec- tion and prevention of malicious and dishonest nodes while routing the data. The proposed trust model works with the DTM-DSR protocol, which involves computation of direct trust between any two nodes using cognitive knowledge. We have taken care of trust fading over time, rewards, and penalties while computing the trustworthiness of a node and also route. A simulator is developed for testing the proposed algorithm, the results of experiments shows incorporation of cognitive reasoning for computation of trust in routing effectively detects intrusions in MANET environment, and generates more reliable routes for secured routing of data.