How good are the simulations of tropical SST-rainfall relationship by IPCC AR4 atmospheric and coupled models?

The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed SST to simulate and predict the interannual variability of Indian/Asian monsoon has been widely attributed to their inability to reproduce the actual sea surface temperature (SST)-rainfall relationship in the warm Indo-Pacific oceans. This assessment is based on a comparison of the observed and simulated correlation between the rainfall and local SST. However, the observed SSTconvection/rainfall relationship is nonlinear and for this a linear measure such as the correlation is not an appropriate measure. We show that the SST-rainfall relationship simulated by atmospheric and coupled general circulation models in IPCC AR4 is nonlinear, as observed, and realistic over the tropical West Pacific (WPO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The SST-rainfall pattern simulated by the coupled versions of these models is rather similar to that from the corresponding atmospheric one, except for a shift of the entire pattern to colder/warmer SSTs when there is a cold/warm bias in the coupled version.

On breaks of the Indian monsoon

For over a century, the term break has been used for spells in which the rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone is interrupted. The phenomenon of 'break monsoon' is of great interest because long intense breaks are often associated with poor monsoon seasons. Such breaks have distinct circulation characteristics (heat trough type circulation) and have a large impact on rainfed agriculture. Although interruption of the monsoon rainfall is considered to be the most important feature of the break monsoon, traditionally breaks have been identified on the basis of the surface pressure and wind patterns over the Indian region. We have defined breaks (and active spells) on the basis of rainfall over the monsoon zone. The rainfall criteria are chosen so as to ensure a large overlap with the traditional breaks documented by Ramamurthy (1969) and De et al (1998). We have identified these rainbreaks for 1901-89. We have also identified active spells on the basis of rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone. We have shown that the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is significantly negatively correlated with the number of rainbreak days (correlation coefficient -0.56) and significantly positively correlated with the number of active days (correlation coefficient 0.47). Thus the interannual variation of the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is shown to be related to the number of days of rainbreaks and active spells identified here. There have been several studies of breaks (and also active spells in several cases) identified on the basis of different criteria over regions differing in spatial scales (e.g., Webster et al 1998; Krishnan et al 2000; Goswami and Mohan 2000; and Annamalai and Slingo 2001). We find that there is considerable overlap between the rainbreaks we have identified and breaks based on the traditional definition. There is some overlap with the breaks identified by Krishnan et al (2000) but little overlap with breaks identified by Webster et al (1998). Further, there are three or four active-break cycles in a season according to Webster et al (1998) which implies a time scale of about 40 days for which Goswami and Mohan (2000), and Annamalai and Slingo'(2001) have studied breaks and active minus break fluctuations. On the other hand, neither the traditional breaks (Ramamurthy 1969; and De et al 1998) nor the rainbreaks occur every year. This suggests that the 'breaks' in these studies axe weak spells of the intraseasonal variation of the monsoon, which occur every year. We have derived the OLR and circulation patterns associated with rainbreaks and active spells and compared them with the patterns associated with breaks/active minus break spells from these studies. Inspite of differences in the patterns over the Indian region, there is one feature which is seen in the OLR anomaly patterns of breaks identified on the basis of different criteria as well as the rainbreaks identified in this paper viz., a quadrapole over the Asia-west Pacific region arising from anomalies opposite (same) in sign to those over the Indian region occurring over the equatorial Indian Ocean and northern tropical (equatorial) parts of the west Pacific. Thus it appears that this quadrapole is a basic feature of weak spells of the intraseasonal,variation over the Asia-west Pacific region. Since the rainbreaks are intense weak spells, this basic feature is also seen in the composite patterns of these breaks. We find that rainbreaks (active spells) are also associated with negative (positive) anomalies over a part of the cast Pacific suggesting that the convection over the Indian region is linked to that over the east Pacific not only on the interannual scale (as evinced by the link between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ENSO) but on the intraseasonal scale as well.

Some salient features of the atmosphere observed over the north Bay of Bengal during BOBMEX

This paper describes the near surface characteristics and vertical variations based on the observations made at 17.5degreesN and 89degreesE from ORV Sagar Kanya in the north Bay of Bengal during the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) carried out in July-August 1999. BOBMEX captured both the active and weak phases of convection. SST remained above the convection threshold throughout the BOBMEX. While the response of the SST to atmospheric forcing was clearly observed, the response of the atmosphere to SST changes was not clear. SST decreased during periods of large scale precipitation, and increased during a weak phase of convection. It is shown that the latent heat flux at comparable wind speeds was about 25-50% lower over the Bay during BOBMEX compared to that over the Indian Ocean during other seasons and tropical west Pacific. On the other hand, the largest variations in the surface daily net heat flux are observed over the Bay during BOBMEX. SST predicted using observed surface fluxes showed that 1-D heat balance model works sometime but not always, and horizontal advection is important. The high resolution Vaisala radiosondes launched during BOBMEX could clearly bring out the changes in the vertical structure of the atmosphere between active and weak phases of convection. Convective Available Potential Energy of the surface air decreased,by 2-3 kJ kg(-1) following convection, and recovered in a time period of one or two days. The mid tropospheric relative humidity and water vapor content, and wind direction show the major changes between the active and weak phases of convection.

El Nino and the Indian rainfall in June

We have addressed the question of whether the massive deficit of 42% in rainfall over the Indian region in June 2014 can be attributed primarily to the El Nino. We have shown that the variation of convection over the Northern part of the Tropical West Pacific (NWTP: 120-150E, 20-30N) plays a major role in determining the all-India rainfall in June with deficit (excess) in rainfall associated with enhancement (suppression) of convection over NWTP. In June 2014, the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomaly over this region was unfavourable, whereas in June 2015, the OLR anomaly over NWTP was favourable and the all-India rainfall was 16% higher than the long-term average. We find that during El Nino, when the convection over the equatorial central Pacific intensifies, there is a high propensity for intensification of convection over NWTP. Thus, El Nino appears to have an impact on the rainfall over the Indian region via its impact on the convection over the West Pacific, particularly over NWTP. This occurred in June 2014, which suggests that the large deficit in June 2014, could be primarily attributed to the El Nino acting via intensification of convection over NWTP.

Systematic bias in MODIS dust aerosol retrieval at Kanpur (AERONET), Indo-Gangetic Basin - art.no.640816

We have compared the spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol fine mode fraction (AFMF) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with those of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) at Kanpur (26.45N, 80.35E), northern India for the pre-monsoon season (March to June, 2001-2005). We found that MODIS systematically overestimates AOD during pre-monsoon season (known to be influenced by dust transport from north-west of India). The errors in AOD were correlated with the MODIS top-of-atmosphere apparent surface reflectance in 2.1 mu m channel (rho*(2.1)). MODIS aerosol algorithm uses p*(2.1) to derive the surface reflectance in visible channels (rho(0.47), rho(0.66)) using an empirical mid IR-visible correlation (rho(0.47) = rho(2.1)/4, rho(0.66) = rho(2.1)/2). The large uncertainty in estimating surface reflectance in visible channels (Delta rho(0.66)+/- 0.04, Delta rho(0.47)+/- 0.02) at higher values of p*(2.1) (p*(2.1) > 0.18) leads to higher aerosol contribution in the total reflected radiance at top-of atmosphere to compensate for the reduced surface reflectance in visible channels and thus leads to overestimation of AOD. This was also reflected in the very low values of AFMF during pre-monsoon whose accuracy depends on the aerosol path radiance in 0.47 and 0.66 mu m channels and aerosol models. The errors in AOD were also high in the scattering angle range 110 degrees-140 degrees, where the effect of dust non-spherity on its optical properties is significant. The direct measurements of spectral surface reflectance are required over the Indo-Gangetic basin in order to validate the mid IR-visible relationship. MODIS aerosol models should also be modified to incorporate the effect of non-spherity of dust aerosols.

Simulation of ENSO-Related Surface Winds in the Tropical Pacific by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Forced by Observed Sea Surface Temperatures

The authors present the simulation of the tropical Pacific surface wind variability by a low-resolution (R15 horizontal resolution and 18 vertical levels) version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Maryland, general circulation model (GCM) when forced by observed global sea surface temperature. The authors have examined the monthly mean surface winds acid precipitation simulated by the model that was integrated from January 1979 to March 1992. Analyses of the climatological annual cycle and interannual variability over the Pacific are presented. The annual means of the simulated zonal and meridional winds agree well with observations. The only appreciable difference is in the region of strong trade winds where the simulated zonal winds are about 15%-20% weaker than observed, The amplitude of the annual harmonics are weaker than observed over the intertropical convergence zone and the South Pacific convergence zone regions. The amplitudes of the interannual variation of the simulated zonal and meridional winds are close to those of the observed variation. The first few dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the simulated, as well as the observed, monthly mean winds are found to contain a targe amount of high-frequency intraseasonal variations, While the statistical properties of the high-frequency modes, such as their amplitude and geographical locations, agree with observations, their detailed time evolution does not. When the data are subjected to a 5-month running-mean filter, the first two dominant EOFs of the simulated winds representing the low-frequency EI Nino-Southern Oscillation fluctuations compare quite well with observations. However, the location of the center of the westerly anomalies associated with the warm episodes is simulated about 15 degrees west of the observed locations. The model simulates well the progress of the westerly anomalies toward the eastern Pacific during the evolution of a warm event. The simulated equatorial wind anomalies are comparable in magnitude to the observed anomalies. An intercomparison of the simulation of the interannual variability by a few other GCMs with comparable resolution is also presented. The success in simulation of the large-scale low-frequency part of the tropical surface winds by the atmospheric GCM seems to be related to the model's ability to simulate the large-scale low-frequency part of the precipitation. Good correspondence between the simulated precipitation and the highly reflective cloud anomalies is seen in the first two EOFs of the 5-month running means. Moreover, the strong correlation found between the simulated precipitation and the simulated winds in the first two principal components indicates the primary role of model precipitation in driving the surface winds. The surface winds simulated by a linear model forced by the GCM-simulated precipitation show good resemblance to the GCM-simulated winds in the equatorial region. This result supports the recent findings that the large-scale part of the tropical surface winds is primarily linear.