The Indian Ocean forecast system

In order to meet the ever growing demand for the prediction of oceanographic parametres in the Indian Ocean for a variety of applications, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has recently set-up an operational ocean forecast system, viz. the Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS). This fully automated system, based on a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model issues six-hourly forecasts of the sea-surface temperature, surface currents and depths of the mixed layer and the thermocline up to five-days of lead time. A brief account of INDOFOS and a statistical validation of the forecasts of these parametres using in situ and remote sensing data are presented in this article. The accuracy of the sea-surface temperature forecasts by the system is high in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, whereas it is moderate in the equatorial Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the accuracy of the depth of the thermocline and the isothermal layers and surface current forecasts are higher near the equatorial region, while it is relatively lower in the Bay of Bengal.

Slow Slip Acceleration beneath Andaman Islands Triggered by the 11 April 2012 Indian Ocean Earthquakes

The M-w 8.6 and 8.2 strike-slip earthquakes that struck the northeast Indian Ocean on 11 April 2012 resulted in coseismic deformation both at near and distant sites. The slip distribution, deduced using seismic-wave analysis for the orthogonal faults that ruptured during these earthquakes, is sufficient to predict the coseismic displacements at the Global Positioning System (GPS) sites, such as NTUS, PALK, and CUSV, but fall short at four continuous sites in the Andaman Islands region. Slip modeling, for times prior to the events, suggests that the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the Andaman Islands has been slipping at least at the rate of 40 cm/yr, in response to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman coseismic stress change. Modeling of GPS displacements suggests that the en echelon and orthogonal fault ruptures of the 2012 intraplate oceanic earthquakes could have possibly accelerated the ongoing slow slip, along the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the islands with a month-long slip of 4-10 cm. The misfit to the coseismic GPS displacements along the Andaman Islands could be improved with a better source model, assuming that no local process contributed to this anomaly.

Impact of river runoff into the ocean on Indian summer monsoon

Rivers of the world discharge about 36000 km 3 of freshwater into the ocean every year. To investigate the impact of river discharge on climate, we have carried out two 100 year simulations using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), one including the river runoff into the ocean and the other excluding it. When the river discharge is shut off, global average sea surface temperature (SST) rises by about 0.5 degrees C and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) increases by about 10% of the seasonal total with large increase in the eastern Bay of Bengal and along the west coast of India. In addition, the frequency of occurrence of La Nina-like cooling events in the equatorial Pacific increases and the correlation between ISMR and Pacific SST anomalies become stronger. The teleconnection between the SST anomalies in the Pacific and monsoon is effected via upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient and the North African-Asian Jet axis.

Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices

Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July-September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August-September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.

A note on new indices for the equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation

It is now well known that there is a strong association of the extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) with the El Nio and southern oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), later being an east-west oscillation in convection anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean. So far, the index used for EQUINOO is EQWIN, which is based on the surface zonal wind over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Since the most important attribute of EQUINOO is the oscillation in convection/precipitation, we believe that the indices based on convection or precipitation would be more appropriate. Continuous and reliable data on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and satellite derived precipitation are now available from 1979 onwards. Hence, in this paper, we introduce new indices for EQUINOO, based on the difference in the anomaly of OLR/precipitation between eastern and western parts of the equatorial Indian Ocean. We show that the strong association of extremes of the Indian summer monsoon with ENSO and EQUINOO is also seen when the new indices are used to represent EQUINOO.

On the roles of the northeast cold surge, the Borneo vortex, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole during the extreme 2006/2007 flood in southern Peninsular Malaysia

The mid-December 2006 to late January 2007 flood in southern Peninsular Malaysia was the worst flood in a century and was caused by three extreme precipitation episodes. These extreme precipitation events were mainly associated with strong northeasterly winds over the South China Sea. In all cases, the northeasterlies penetrated anomalously far south and followed almost a straight trajectory. The elevated terrain over Sumatra and southern Peninsular Malaysia caused low-level convergence. The strong easterly winds near Java associated with the Rossby wave-type response to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) inhibited the counter-clockwise turning of the northeasterlies and the formation of the Borneo vortex, which, in turn, enhanced the low-level convergence over the region. The abrupt termination of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in December 2006 played a secondary role as warmer equatorial Indian Ocean helped in the MJO formation.

Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon

In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951-2007). Active and break events are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over a critical area, called the monsoon core zone exceeds 1 or is less than -1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at least three consecutive days. We elucidate the major features of these events. We consider very briefly the relationship of the intraseasonal fluctuations between these events and the interannual variation of the summer monsoon rainfall. We find that breaks tend to have a longer life-span than active spells.While, almost 80% of the active spells lasted 3-4 days, only 40% of the break spells were of such short duration. A small fraction (9%) of active spells and 32% of break spells lasted for a week or longer. While active events occurred almost every year, not a single break occurred in 26% of the years considered. On an average, there are 7 days of active and break events from July through August. There are no significant trends in either the days of active or break events. We have shown that there is a major difference between weak spells and long intense breaks. While weak spells are characterized by weak moist convective regimes, long intense break events have a heat trough type circulation which is similar to the circulation over the Indian subcontinent before the onset of the monsoon. The space-time evolution of the rainfall composite patterns suggests that the revival from breaks occurs primarily from northward propagations of the convective cloud zone. There are important differences between the spatial patterns of the active/break spells and those characteristic of interannual variation, particularly those associated with the link to ENSO. Hence, the interannual variation of the Indian monsoon cannot be considered as primarily arising from the interannual variation of intraseasonal variation. However, the signature over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean on intraseasonal time scales is similar to that on the interannual time scales.

Modeling Indian Ocean circulation: Bay of Bengal fresh water plume and the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool

The Indian subcontinent divides the north Indian Ocean into two tropical basins, namely the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The Arabian Sea has high salinity whereas the salinity of the Bay of Bengal is much lower due to the contrast in freshwater forcing of the two basins. The freshwater received by the Bay in large amounts during the summer monsoon through river discharge is flushed out annually by ocean circulation. After the withdrawal of the summer monsoon, the Ganga – Brahmaputra river plume flows first along the Indian coast and then around Sri Lanka into the Arabian Sea creating a low salinity pool in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS). In the same region, during the pre-monsoon months of February – April, a warm pool, known as the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP), which is distinctly warmer than the rest of the Indian Ocean, takes shape. In fact, this is the warmest region in the world oceans during this period. Simulation of the river plume and its movement as well as its implications to thermodynamics has been a challenging problem for models of Indian Ocean. Here we address these issues using an ocean general circulation model – first we show that the model is capable of reproducing fresh plumes in the Bay of Bengal as well as its movement and then we use the model to determine the processes that lead to formation of the ASMWP. Hydrographic observations from the western Bay of Bengal have shown the presence of a fresh plume along the northern part of the Indian coast during summer monsoon. The Indian Ocean model when forced by realistic winds and climatological river discharge reproduces the fresh plume with reasonable accuracy. The fresh plume does not advect along the Indian coast until the end of summer monsoon. The North Bay Monsoon Current, which flows eastward in the northern Bay, separates the low salinity water from the more saline southern parts of the bay and thus plays an important role in the fresh water budget of the Bay of Bengal. The model also reproduces the surge of the fresh-plume along the Indian coast, into the Arabian Sea during northeast monsoon. Mechanisms that lead to the formation of the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool are investigated using several numerical experiments. Contrary to the existing theories, we find that salinity effects are not necessary for the formation of the ASMWP. The orographic effects of the Sahyadris (Western Ghats) and resulting reduction in wind speed leads to the formation of the ASMWP. During November – April, the SEAS behave as a low-wind heatdominated regime where the evolution of sea surface temperature is solely determined by atmospheric forcing. In such regions the evolution of surface layer temperature is not dependent on the characteristics of the subsurface ocean such as the barrier layer and temperature inversion.

Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against similar to 0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); similar to 60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and similar to 40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our similar to 100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region, but does not contribute to large-scale intraseasonal SST variability due to its small spatial scale and random phase relation to the active-break monsoon cycle. The effect of oceanic eddies; however, remains to be explored at a higher spatial resolution.

Evaluation of GODAS Using RAMA Mooring Observations from the Indian Ocean

We present a comparison of the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) five-day ocean analyses against in situ daily data from Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) moorings at locations 90 degrees E, 12 degrees N; 90 degrees E, 8 degrees N; 90 degrees E, 0 degrees N and 90 degrees E, 1.5 degrees S in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal during 2002-2008. We find that the GODAS temperature analysis does not adequately capture a prominent signal of Indian Ocean dipole mode of 2006 seen in the mooring data, particularly at 90 degrees E 0 degrees N and 90 degrees E 1.5 degrees S in the eastern India Ocean. The analysis, using simple statistics such as bias and root-mean-square deviation, indicates that standard GODAS temperature has definite biases and significant differences with observations on both subseasonal and seasonal scales. Subsurface salinity has serious deficiencies as well, but this may not be surprising considering the poorly constrained fresh water forcing, and possible model deficiencies in subsurface vertical mixing. GODAS reanalysis needs improvement to make it more useful for study of climate variability and for creating ocean initial conditions for prediction.

New species of Ptychozoon (Sauria: Gekkonidae) from the Nicobar Archipelago, Indian Ocean

A new species of Ptychozoon is described from the central portion of the Nicobar Archipelago, Bay of Bengal, India. It has been formerly referred to P. kuhli, a species widely distributed in Sundaland. Ptychozoon nicobarensis sp. nov. reaches an SVL of 100.3 mm, and is diagnosable from congeneric species in showing the following combination of characters: dorsum with a tan vertebral stripe, lacking dark transverse bars; supranasals in contact; cutaneous expansions on sides of head; absence of predigital notch in preantebrachial cutaneous expansion; imbricate parachute support scales; four irregular rows of low, rounded enlarged scales on dorsum; 20-29 scales across widest portion of tail terminus; three indistinct chevrons on dorsum; 7-11 pairs of preanal pores; femoral pores absent; tail with an expanded terminal flap and weak lobe fusion at proximal border of tail terminus. The curious distribution of the new species, centred around the central Nicobars is speculated to be the result of competition with and/or predation by large gekkonid species, to the north (Gekko verreauxi) and south (G. smithii) of the group of islands occupied by the new Ptychozoon from the central Nicobars.

Indian Ocean sea surface salinity variations in a coupled model

The variability of the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Indian Ocean is studied using a 100-year control simulation of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM 2.0). The monsoon-driven seasonal SSS pattern in the Indian Ocean, marked by low salinity in the east and high salinity in the west, is captured by the model. The model overestimates runoff int the Bay of Bengal due to higher rainfall over the Himalayan-Tibetan regions which drain into the Bay of Bengal through Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers. The outflow of low-salinity water from the Bay of Bengal is to strong in the model. Consequently, the model Indian Ocean SSS is about 1 less than that seen in the climatology. The seasonal Indian Ocean salt balance obtained from the model is consistent with the analysis from climatological data sets. During summer, the large freshwater input into the Bay of Bengal and its redistribution decide the spatial pattern of salinity tendency. During winter, horizontal advection is the dominant contributor to the tendency term. The interannual variability of the SSS in the Indian Ocean is about five times larger than that in coupled model simulations of the North Atlantic Ocean. Regions of large interannual standard deviations are located near river mouths in the Bay of Bengal and in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Both freshwater input into the ocean and advection of this anomalous flux are responsible for the generation of these anomalies. The model simulates 20 significant Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and during IOD years large salinity anomalies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The anomalies exist as two zonal bands: negative salinity anomalies to the north of the equator and positive to the south. The SSS anomalies for the years in which IOD is not present and for ENSO years are much weaker than during IOD years. Significant interannual SSS anomalies appear in the Indian Ocean only during IOD years.

Indian Ocean response to anomalous conditions in 2006

[1] The equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) exhibited anomalous conditions characteristic of an Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) during 2006. The eastern EIO had cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), lower sea level, shallow thermocline and higher chlorophyll than normal. The anomalies in the east, restricted to the south of the equator, were highest off Sumatra. The western pole of the IOD was marked by warm SSTA and deeper thermocline with maxima on either side of the equator. An ocean general circulation model of the Indian Ocean forced by QuikSCAT winds reproduces the IOD of 2006 remarkably well. The switch over to cooling in the east and warming in the west happened during May and July respectively. In the east, airsea heat flux initiated cold SSTA in the model which were sustained later by oceanic processes. In the west, surface heat fluxes and horizontal advection caused warm SSTA and contribution by the latter decreased after August. Citation: Vinayachandran, P. N., J. Kurian, and C. P. Neema (2007), Indian Ocean response to anomalous conditions in 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L15602, doi:10.1029/2007GL030194.

Indian Ocean response to anomalous conditions in 2006

The equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) exhibited anomalous conditions characteristic of an Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) during 2006. The eastern EIO had cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), lower sea level, shallow thermocline and higher chlorophyll than normal. The anomalies in the east, restricted to the south of the equator, were highest off Sumatra. The western pole of the IOD was marked by warm SSTA and deeper thermocline with maxima on either side of the equator. An ocean general circulation model of the Indian Ocean forced by QuikSCAT winds reproduces the IOD of 2006 remarkably well. The switch over to cooling in the east and warming in the west happened during May and July respectively. In the east, air-sea heat flux initiated cold SSTA in the model which were sustained later by oceanic processes. In the west, surface heat fluxes and horizontal advection caused warm SSTA and contribution by the latter decreased after August.