12 resultados para Illusory Biases

em Indian Institute of Science - Bangalore - Índia


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A global climate model experiment is performed to evaluate the effect of irrigation on temperatures in several major irrigated regions of the world. The Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.3, was modified to represent irrigation for the fraction of each grid cell equipped for irrigation according to datasets from the Food and Agriculture Organization. Results indicate substantial regional differences in the magnitude of irrigation-induced cooling, which are attributed to three primary factors: differences in extent of the irrigated area, differences in the simulated soil moisture for the control simulation (without irrigation), and the nature of cloud response to irrigation. The last factor appeared especially important for the dry season in India, although further analysis with other models and observations are needed to verify this feedback. Comparison with observed temperatures revealed substantially lower biases in several regions for the simulation with irrigation than for the control, suggesting that the lack of irrigation may be an important component of temperature bias in this model or that irrigation compensates for other biases. The results of this study should help to translate the results from past regional efforts, which have largely focused on the United States, to regions in the developing world that in many cases continue to experience significant expansion of irrigated land.

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The problem of reconstruction of a refractive-index distribution (RID) in optical refraction tomography (ORT) with optical path-length difference (OPD) data is solved using two adaptive-estimation-based extended-Kalman-filter (EKF) approaches. First, a basic single-resolution EKF (SR-EKF) is applied to a state variable model describing the tomographic process, to estimate the RID of an optically transparent refracting object from noisy OPD data. The initialization of the biases and covariances corresponding to the state and measurement noise is discussed. The state and measurement noise biases and covariances are adaptively estimated. An EKF is then applied to the wavelet-transformed state variable model to yield a wavelet-based multiresolution EKF (MR-EKF) solution approach. To numerically validate the adaptive EKF approaches, we evaluate them with benchmark studies of standard stationary cases, where comparative results with commonly used efficient deterministic approaches can be obtained. Detailed reconstruction studies for the SR-EKF and two versions of the MR-EKF (with Haar and Daubechies-4 wavelets) compare well with those obtained from a typically used variant of the (deterministic) algebraic reconstruction technique, the average correction per projection method, thus establishing the capability of the EKF for ORT. To the best of our knowledge, the present work contains unique reconstruction studies encompassing the use of EKF for ORT in single-resolution and multiresolution formulations, and also in the use of adaptive estimation of the EKF's noise covariances. (C) 2010 Optical Society of America

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Surface-potential-based compact charge models for symmetric double-gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (SDG-MOSFETs) are based on the fundamental assumption of having equal oxide thicknesses for both gates. However, for practical devices, there will always be some amount of asymmetry between the gate oxide thicknesses due to process variations and uncertainties, which can affect device performance significantly. In this paper, we propose a simple surface-potential-based charge model, which is applicable for tied double-gate MOSFETs having same gate work function but could have any difference in gate oxide thickness. The proposed model utilizes the unique so-far-unexplored quasi-linear relationship between the surface potentials along the channel. In this model, the terminal charges could be computed by basic arithmetic operations from the surface potentials and applied biases, and thus, it could be implemented in any circuit simulator very easily and extendable to short-channel devices. We also propose a simple physics-based perturbation technique by which the surface potentials of an asymmetric device could be obtained just by solving the input voltage equation of SDG devices for small asymmetry cases. The proposed model, which shows excellent agreement with numerical and TCAD simulations, is implemented in a professional circuit simulator through the Verilog-A interface and demonstrated for a 101-stage ring oscillator simulation. It is also shown that the proposed model preserves the source/drain symmetry, which is essential for RF circuit design.

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This paper, for the first time, explores the charcatersictics of MOS capacitor controlled by independent double gates by numerical simulation and analytical modeling for its possible use in RF circuit design as a varactor. By numerical simulation it is shown how the quasi-static and non-quasi-static characteristics of the first gate capacitance could be tuned by the second gate biases. Effect of body doping and energy quantization are also discussed in this regard. A semi-empirical quasi-static model is also developed by using the existing incomplete Poisson solution of independent double gate transistors. Proposed model, which is valid from accumulation to inversion, is shown to have excellent agreement with numerical simulation for practical bias conditions.

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We have developed a one-way nested Indian Ocean regional model. The model combines the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Modular Ocean Model (MOM4p1) at global climate model resolution (nominally one degree), and a regional Indian Ocean MOM4p1 configuration with 25 km horizontal resolution and 1 m vertical resolution near the surface. Inter-annual global simulations with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) surface forcing over years 1992-2005 provide surface boundary conditions. We show that relative to the global simulation, (i) biases in upper ocean temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth are reduced, (ii) sea surface height and upper ocean circulation are closer to observations, and (iii) improvements in model simulation can be attributed to refined resolution, more realistic topography and inclusion of seasonal river runoff. Notably, the surface salinity bias is reduced to less than 0.1 psu over the Bay of Bengal using relatively weak restoring to observations, and the model simulates the strong, shallow halocline often observed in the North Bay of Bengal. There is marked improvement in subsurface salinity and temperature, as well as mixed layer depth in the Bay of Bengal. Major seasonal signatures in observed sea surface height anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean, including the coastal waveguide around the Indian peninsula, are simulated with great fidelity. The use of realistic topography and seasonal river runoff brings the three dimensional structure of the East India Coastal Current and West India Coastal Current much closer to observations. As a result, the incursion of low salinity Bay of Bengal water into the southeastern Arabian Sea is more realistic. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We present a comparison of the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) five-day ocean analyses against in situ daily data from Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) moorings at locations 90 degrees E, 12 degrees N; 90 degrees E, 8 degrees N; 90 degrees E, 0 degrees N and 90 degrees E, 1.5 degrees S in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal during 2002-2008. We find that the GODAS temperature analysis does not adequately capture a prominent signal of Indian Ocean dipole mode of 2006 seen in the mooring data, particularly at 90 degrees E 0 degrees N and 90 degrees E 1.5 degrees S in the eastern India Ocean. The analysis, using simple statistics such as bias and root-mean-square deviation, indicates that standard GODAS temperature has definite biases and significant differences with observations on both subseasonal and seasonal scales. Subsurface salinity has serious deficiencies as well, but this may not be surprising considering the poorly constrained fresh water forcing, and possible model deficiencies in subsurface vertical mixing. GODAS reanalysis needs improvement to make it more useful for study of climate variability and for creating ocean initial conditions for prediction.

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General circulation models (GCMs) use transient climate simulations to predict climate conditions in the future. Coarse-grid resolutions and process uncertainties necessitate the use of downscaling models to simulate precipitation. However, in the downscaling models, with multiple GCMs now available, selecting an atmospheric variable from a particular model which is representative of the ensemble mean becomes an important consideration. The variable convergence score (VCS) provides a simple yet meaningful approach to address this issue, providing a mechanism to evaluate variables against each other with respect to the stability they exhibit in future climate simulations. In this study, VCS methodology is applied to 10 atmospheric variables of particular interest in downscaling precipitation over India and also on a regional basis. The nested bias-correction methodology is used to remove the systematic biases in the GCMs simulations, and a single VCS curve is developed for the entire country. The generated VCS curve is expected to assist in quantifying the variable performance across different GCMs, thus reducing the uncertainty in climate impact-assessment studies. The results indicate higher consistency across GCMs for pressure and temperature, and lower consistency for precipitation and related variables. Regional assessments, while broadly consistent with the overall results, indicate low convergence in atmospheric attributes for the Northeastern parts of India.

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Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

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Regions in video streams attracting human interest contribute significantly to human understanding of the video. Being able to predict salient and informative Regions of Interest (ROIs) through a sequence of eye movements is a challenging problem. Applications such as content-aware retargeting of videos to different aspect ratios while preserving informative regions and smart insertion of dialog (closed-caption text) into the video stream can significantly be improved using the predicted ROIs. We propose an interactive human-in-the-loop framework to model eye movements and predict visual saliency into yet-unseen frames. Eye tracking and video content are used to model visual attention in a manner that accounts for important eye-gaze characteristics such as temporal discontinuities due to sudden eye movements, noise, and behavioral artifacts. A novel statistical-and algorithm-based method gaze buffering is proposed for eye-gaze analysis and its fusion with content-based features. Our robust saliency prediction is instantiated for two challenging and exciting applications. The first application alters video aspect ratios on-the-fly using content-aware video retargeting, thus making them suitable for a variety of display sizes. The second application dynamically localizes active speakers and places dialog captions on-the-fly in the video stream. Our method ensures that dialogs are faithful to active speaker locations and do not interfere with salient content in the video stream. Our framework naturally accommodates personalisation of the application to suit biases and preferences of individual users.

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Over the past several decades, Flux-Transport Dynamo (FTD) models have emerged as a popular paradigm for explaining the cyclic nature of solar magnetic activity. Their defining characteristic is the key role played by the mean meridional circulation in transporting magnetic flux and thereby regulating the cycle period. Most FTD models also incorporate the so-called Babcock-Leighton (BL) mechanism in which the mean poloidal field is produced by the emergence and subsequent dispersal of bipolar active regions. This feature is well grounded in solar observations and provides a means for assimilating observed surface flows and fields into the models in order to forecast future solar activity, to identify model biases, and to clarify the underlying physical processes. Furthermore, interpreting historical sunspot records within the context of FTD models can potentially provide insight into why cycle features such as amplitude and duration vary and what causes extreme events such as Grand Minima. Though they are generally robust in a modeling sense and make good contact with observed cycle features, FTD models rely on input physics that is only partially constrained by observation and that neglects the subtleties of convective transport, convective field generation, and nonlinear feedbacks. Here we review the formulation and application of FTD models and assess our current understanding of the input physics based largely on complementary 3D MHD simulations of solar convection, dynamo action, and flux emergence.

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Al-doped ZnO thin films were synthesized from oxygen reactive co-sputtering of Al and Zn targets. Explicit doping of Al in the highly c-axis oriented crystalline films of ZnO was manifested in terms of structural optical and electrical properties. Electrical conduction with different extent of Al doping into the crystal lattice of ZnO (AZnO) were characterized by frequency dependent (40 Hz-50 MHz) resistance. From the frequency dependent resistance, the ac conduction of them, and correlations of localized charge particles in the crystalline films were studied. The dc conduction at the low frequency region was found to increase from 8.623 mu A to 1.14 mA for the samples AZnO1 (1 wt% Al) and AZnO2 (2 wt% Al), respectively. For the sample AZnO10 (10 wt% Al) low frequency dc conduction was not found due to the electrode polarization effect. The measure of the correlation length by inverse of threshold frequency (omega(0)) showed that on application of a dc electric field such length decreases and the decrease in correlation parameter(s) indicates that the correlation between potentials wells of charge particles decreases for the unidirectional nature of dc bias. The comparison between the correlation length and the extent of correlation in the doped ZnO could not be made due to the observation of several threshold frequencies at the extent of higher doping. Such threshold frequencies were explained by the population possibility of correlated charge carriers that responded at different frequencies. For AZnO2 (2% Al), the temperature dependent (from 4.5 to 288 K) resistance study showed that the variable range hopping mechanism was the most dominating conduction mechanism at higher temperature whereas at low temperature region it was influenced by the small polaronic hopping conduction mechanism. There was no significant influence found in these mechanisms on applications of 1, 2 and 3 V as biases.

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This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of five widely used multisatellite precipitation estimates (MPEs) against 1 degrees x 1 degrees gridded rain gauge data set as ground truth over India. One decade observations are used to assess the performance of various MPEs (Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-South Asia data set, CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42), and Global Precipitation Climatology Project). All MPEs have high detection skills of rain with larger probability of detection (POD) and smaller ``missing'' values. However, the detection sensitivity differs from one product (and also one region) to the other. While the CMORPH has the lowest sensitivity of detecting rain, CPC shows highest sensitivity and often overdetects rain, as evidenced by large POD and false alarm ratio and small missing values. All MPEs show higher rain sensitivity over eastern India than western India. These differential sensitivities are found to alter the biases in rain amount differently. All MPEs show similar spatial patterns of seasonal rain bias and root-mean-square error, but their spatial variability across India is complex and pronounced. The MPEs overestimate the rainfall over the dry regions (northwest and southeast India) and severely underestimate over mountainous regions (west coast and northeast India), whereas the bias is relatively small over the core monsoon zone. Higher occurrence of virga rain due to subcloud evaporation and possible missing of small-scale convective events by gauges over the dry regions are the main reasons for the observed overestimation of rain by MPEs. The decomposed components of total bias show that the major part of overestimation is due to false precipitation. The severe underestimation of rain along the west coast is attributed to the predominant occurrence of shallow rain and underestimation of moderate to heavy rain by MPEs. The decomposed components suggest that the missed precipitation and hit bias are the leading error sources for the total bias along the west coast. All evaluation metrics are found to be nearly equal in two contrasting monsoon seasons (southwest and northeast), indicating that the performance of MPEs does not change with the season, at least over southeast India. Among various MPEs, the performance of TMPA is found to be better than others, as it reproduced most of the spatial variability exhibited by the reference.