Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R (H) in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R (H) is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R (H) are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978-2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R (H) is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.

Variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in daily data from gauge and satellite

It has long been thought that tropical rainfall retrievals from satellites have large errors. Here we show, using a new daily 1 degree gridded rainfall data set based on about 1800 gauges from the India Meteorology Department (IMD), that modern satellite estimates are reasonably close to observed rainfall over the Indian monsoon region. Daily satellite rainfalls from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP 1DD) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) are available since 1998. The high summer monsoon (June-September) rain over the Western Ghats and Himalayan foothills is captured in TMPA data. Away from hilly regions, the seasonal mean and intraseasonal variability of rainfall (averaged over regions of a few hundred kilometers linear dimension) from both satellite products are about 15% of observations. Satellite data generally underestimate both the mean and variability of rain, but the phase of intraseasonal variations is accurate. On synoptic timescales, TMPA gives reasonable depiction of the pattern and intensity of torrential rain from individual monsoon low-pressure systems and depressions. A pronounced biennial oscillation of seasonal total central India rain is seen in all three data sets, with GPCP 1DD being closest to IMD observations. The new satellite data are a promising resource for the study of tropical rainfall variability.

The physics of ENSO-monsoon connection

The physical mechanism through which Ei-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to produce deficient precipitation over Indian continent is investigated using both observations as well as a general circulation model. Both analysis of observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) study show that the planetary scale response associated with ENSO primarily influences the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Through this interaction it tends to favour the equatorial heat source, enhance precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean and indirectly cause a decrease in continental precipitation through induced subsidence. This situation is further complicated by the fact the regional tropospheric quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) has a bimodal structure over this region with large amplitude over the Indian continent. While the ENSO response has a quasi-four year periodicity and tends peak during beginning of the calendar year, the QBO mode tends to peak during northern summer. Thus, the QBO mode exerts a stronger influence on the interannual variability of the monsoon. The strength of the Indian monsoon in a given year depends on the combined effect of the ENSO and the QBO mode. Sines the two oscillations have disparate time scales, exact phase information of the two modes during northern summer is important in determining the Indian summer monsoon. The physical mechanism of the interannual variations of the Indian monsoon precipitation associated with ENSO presented here is similar to the physical process that cause intraseasonal 'active', 'break' oscillations of the monsoon.

Stochastic modelling of monthly rainfall

A transformation is suggested which can transform a non-Gaussian monthly hydrological time series into a Gaussian one. The suggested approach is verified with data of ten Indian rainfall time series. Incidentally, it is observed that once the deterministic trends are removed, the transformation leads to an uncorrelated process for monthly rainfall. The procedure for normalization is general enough in that it should be also applicable to river discharges. This is verified to a limited extent by considering data of two Indian river discharges.

Lighting the way: Towards reducing misorientation of olive ridley hatchlings due to artificial lighting at Rushikulya, India

Sea-finding behavior in sea turtle hatchlings is modified by the visual cues provided by artificial beach front lighting. The consequent landward movement of hatchlings in response to coastal electric lighting reduces their survival rates. We assessed the potential impact of coastal lighting at Rushikulya, an important mass nesting site of the olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) in the Indian Ocean region. We examined the response of hatchlings to light characteristics in an experimental setup, as well as to the existing lighting regimes along the beach, using arena trials. Previous studies on other species indicate preferential orientation towards low wavelength and high intensity light. Our study confirms these preferences among hatchlings from the Indian Ocean population of olive ridleys. In addition we also found that wavelength and intensity could have an interactive effect upon hatchling orientation. Hatchlings at the study site respond both to visible point sources of light and to sheer glows of light. Though beach plantations of introduced Casuarina equisetifolia are generally considered to have negative impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches, we found that they acted as an effective light barrier when planted about 50 m away from the high tide line. We developed a model of the expected impact of artificial lighting on hatchling orientation during mass hatching events of previous years, and predict as much as 50% misorientation in some years. We also developed a map representing the misorientation of hatchlings due to artificial lighting based on arena trials in different regions of the beach. The results of the study helped identify focal areas for light management on the beach, which could be critical for the survival of this population.

Predictive distribution modeling for rare Himalayan medicinal plant Berberis aristata DC

Predictive distribution modelling of Berberis aristata DC, a rare threatened plant with high medicinal values has been done with an aim to understand its potential distribution zones in Indian Himalayan region. Bioclimatic and topographic variables were used to develop the distribution model with the help of three different algorithms viz. GeneticAlgorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP), Bioclim and Maximum entroys(MaxEnt). Maximum entropy has predicted wider potential distribution (10.36%) compared to GARP (4.63%) and Bioclim (2.44%). Validation confirms that these outputs are comparable to the present distribution pattern of the B. atistata. This exercise highlights that this species favours Western Himalaya. However, GARP and MaxEnt's prediction of Eastern Himalayan states (i.e. Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur) are also identified as potential occurrence places require further exploration.

Fault-Diagnostic System using Support Vector Machines for Power Transmission Systems

This paper presents an approach for identifying the faulted line section and fault location on transmission systems using support vector machines (SVMs) for diagnosis/post-fault analysis purpose. Power system disturbances are often caused by faults on transmission lines. When fault occurs on a transmission system, the protective relay detects the fault and initiates the tripping operation, which isolates the affected part from the rest of the power system. Based on the fault section identified, rapid and corrective restoration procedures can thus be taken to minimize the power interruption and limit the impact of outage on the system. The approach is particularly important for post-fault diagnosis of any mal-operation of relays following a disturbance in the neighboring line connected to the same substation. This may help in improving the fault monitoring/diagnosis process, thus assuring secure operation of the power systems. In this paper we compare SVMs with radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) in data sets corresponding to different faults on a transmission system. Classification and regression accuracy is reported for both strategies. Studies on a practical 24-Bus equivalent EHV transmission system of the Indian Southern region is presented for indicating the improved generalization with the large margin classifiers in enhancing the efficacy of the chosen model.

Intelligent Approach for Fault Diagnosis in Power Transmission Systems Using Support Vector Machines

This paper presents an approach for identifying the faulted line section and fault location on transmission systems using support vector machines (SVMs) for diagnosis/post-fault analysis purpose. Power system disturbances are often caused by faults on transmission lines. When fault occurs on a transmission system, the protective relay detects the fault and initiates the tripping operation, which isolates the affected part from the rest of the power system. Based on the fault section identified, rapid and corrective restoration procedures can thus be taken to minimize the power interruption and limit the impact of outage on the system. The approach is particularly important for post-fault diagnosis of any mal-operation of relays following a disturbance in the neighboring line connected to the same substation. This may help in improving the fault monitoring/diagnosis process, thus assuring secure operation of the power systems. In this paper we compare SVMs with radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) in data sets corresponding to different faults on a transmission system. Classification and regression accuracy is reported for both strategies. Studies on a practical 24-Bus equivalent EHV transmission system of the Indian Southern region is presented for indicating the improved generalization with the large margin classifiers in enhancing the efficacy of the chosen model.

Space-Time Scales of Northward Propagation of Convection during Boreal Summer

This study uses precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to quantify the spatial and temporal scales of northward propagation of convection over the Indian monsoon region during boreal summer. Propagating modes of convective systems in the intraseasonal time scales such as the Madden-Julian oscillation can interact with the intertropical convergence zone and bring active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon. Wavelet analysis was used to quantify the spatial extent (scale) and center of these propagating convective bands, as well as the time period associated with different spatial scales. Results presented here suggest that during a good monsoon year the spatial scale of this oscillation is about 30 degrees centered around 10 degrees N. During weak monsoon years, the scale of propagation decreases and the center shifts farther south closer to the equator. A strong linear relationship is obtained between the center/scale of convective wave bands and intensity of monsoon precipitation over Indian land on the interannual time scale. Moreover, the spatial scale and its center during the break monsoon were found to be similar to an overall weak monsoon year. Based on this analysis, a new index is proposed to quantify the spatial scales associated with propagating convective bands. This automated wavelet-based technique developed here can be used to study meridional propagation of convection in a large volume of datasets from observations and model simulations. The information so obtained can be related to the interannual and intraseasonal variation of Indian monsoon precipitation.

Variability of cloud liquid water and ice over South Asia from TMI estimates

In this study, the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission based Microwave Imager estimates (2A12) have been used to compare and contrast the characteristics of cloud liquid water and ice over the Indian land region and the ocean surrounding it, during the premonsoon (May) and monsoon (June-September) seasons. Based on the spatial homogeneity of rainfall, we have selected five regions for our study (three over ocean, two over land). Comparison across three ocean regions suggests that the cloud liquid water (CLW) over the orographically influenced Arabian Sea (close to the Indian west coast) behaves differently from the CLW over a trapped ocean (Bay of Bengal) or an open ocean (equatorial Indian Ocean). Specifically, the Arabian Sea region shows higher liquid water for a lower range of rainfall, whereas the Bay of Bengal and the equatorial Indian Ocean show higher liquid water for a higher range of rainfall. Apart from geographic differences, we also documented seasonal differences by comparing CLW profiles between monsoon and premonsoon periods, as well as between early and peak phases of the monsoon. We find that the CLW during the lean periods of rainfall (May or June) is higher than during the peak and late monsoon season (July-September) for raining clouds. As active and break phases are important signatures of the monsoon progression, we also analysed the differences in CLW during various phases of the monsoon, namely, active, break, active-to-break and break-to-active transition phases. We find that the cloud liquid water content during the break-to-active transition phase is significantly higher than during the active-to-break transition phase over central India. We speculate that this could be attributed to higher amount of aerosol loading over this region during the break phase. We lend credence to this aerosol-CLW/rain association by comparing the central Indian CLW with that over southeast Asia (where the aerosol loading is significantly smaller) and find that in the latter region, there are no significant differences in CLW during the different phases of the monsoon. While our hypothesis needs to be further investigated with numerical models, the results presented in this study can potentially serve as a good benchmark in evaluating the performance of cloud resolving models over the Indian region.

A novel index for identification of weak nodes for reactive compensation to improve voltage stability

In this study, a new reactive power loss index (RPLI) is proposed for identification of weak buses in the system. This index is further used for determining the optimal locations for placement of reactive compensation devices in the power system for additional voltage support. The new index is computed from the reactive power support and loss allocation algorithm using Y-bus method for the system under intact condition and as well as critical/severe network contingencies cases. Fuzzy logic approach is used to select the important and critical/severe line contingencies from the contingency list. The inherent characteristics of the reactive power in system operation is properly addressed while determining the reactive power loss allocation to load buses. The proposed index is tested on sample 10-bus equivalent system and 72-bus practical equivalent system of Indian southern region power grid. The validation of the weak buses identification from the proposed index with that from other existing methods in the literature is carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index. Simulation results show that the identification of weak buses in the system from the new RPLI is completely non-iterative, thus requires minimal computational efforts as compared with other existing methods in the literature.

Sensible heat fluxes during the active and break phases of the southwest monsoon over the Indian region

Based on the theory given by Saltzman and Ashe (1976), sensible heat fluxes are calculated for the active and break phases of the southwest monsoon over the Indian region. The conclusion drawn is that the sensible heat flux is generally larger during the break monsoon situation when compared with that for the active monsoon situation. The synoptic heat flux is negligible when compared with mean and diurnal heat fluxes over the Indian region even during the monsoon season.

Diurnal-scale signatures of monsoon rainfall over the Indian region from TRMM satellite observations

One of the most important modes of summer season precipitation variability over the Indian region, the diurnal cycle, is studied using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3-hourly, 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees 3B42 rainfall product for nine years (1999-2007). Most previous studies have provided an analysis of a single year or a few years of satellite-or station-based rainfall data. Our study aims to systematically analyze the statistical characteristics of the diurnal-scale signature of rainfall over the Indian and surrounding regions. Using harmonic analysis, we extract the signal corresponding to diurnal and subdiurnal variability. Subsequently, the 3-hourly time period or the octet of rainfall peak for this filtered signal, referred to as the ``peak octet,'' is estimated, with care taken to eliminate spurious peaks arising out of Gibbs oscillations. Our analysis suggests that over the Bay of Bengal, there are three distinct modes of the peak octet of diurnal rainfall corresponding to 1130, 1430, and 1730 Indian standard time (IST), from the north central to south bay. This finding could be seen to be consistent with southward propagation of the diurnal rainfall pattern reported by earlier studies. Over the Arabian Sea, there is a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet (1430 IST), in a region where it rains for more than 30% of the time. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, while most of the western part shows a late night/early morning peak, the eastern part does not show a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet owing to the occurrence of a ual maxima (early morng and early/late afternoon). The imalayan foothills were found to have a mode of peak octet corresponding to 0230 IST, whereas over the Burmese mountains and the Western Ghats (west coast of India) the rainfall peaks during late afternoon/early evening (1430-1730 IST). This implies that the phase of the diurnal cycle over inland orography (e. g., Himalayas) is significantly different from coastal orography (e. g., Western Ghats). We also find that over the Gangetic plains, the peak octet is around 1430 IST, a few hours earlier compared to the typical early evening maxima over land.

Genetic characterization of Indian type O FMD virus 3A region in context with host cell preference

The 3A region of foot-and-mouth disease virus has been implicated in host range and virulence. For example, amino acid deletions in the porcinophilic strain (O/TAW/97) at 93-102 aa of the 153 codons long 3A protein have been recognized as the determinant of species specificity. In the present study, 18 type 0 FMDV isolates from India were adapted in different cell culture systems and the 3A sequence was analyzed. These isolates had complete 3A coding sequence (153 aa) and did not exhibit growth restriction in cells based on species of origin. The 3A region was found to be highly conserved at N-terminal half (1-75 aa) but exhibited variability or substitutions towards C-terminal region (80-153). Moreover the amino acid substitutions were more frequent in recent Indian buffalo isolates but none of the Indian isolates showed deletion in 3A protein, which may be the reason for the absence of host specificity in vitro. Further inclusive analysis of 3A region will reveal interesting facts about the variability of FMD virus 3A region in an endemic environment. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coherent rainfall zones of the Indian region

We have delineated rainfall zones for the Indian region that are coherent with respect to the variations of the summer monsoon rainfall. Within each zone, the time series of the summer monsoon rainfall at every pair of stations are significantly positively correlated, and the mean interseries correlation for each zone is high. The interseries correlation data set is analysed in order to delineate the rainfall zones, using an objective method specifically developed for the purpose. Each of the zonal averages are shown to be representative of the zone as a whole. We suggest that this regionalization is appropriate for study of the variation of the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region on interannual and larger scales.