Delineation of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions using wavelet-based global fuzzy cluster analysis

Identification of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions (HMRs) is necessary for various applications. Such regions are delineated by various approaches considering rainfall and temperature as two key variables. In conventional approaches, formation of regions is based on principal components (PCs)/statistics/indices determined from time series of the key variables at monthly and seasonal scales. An issue with use of PCs for regionalization is that they have to be extracted from contemporaneous records of hydrometeorological variables. Therefore, delineated regions may not be effective when the available records are limited over contemporaneous time period. A drawback associated with the use of statistics/indices is that they do not provide effective representation of the key variables when the records exhibit non-stationarity. Consequently, the resulting regions may not be effective for the desired purpose. To address these issues, a new approach is proposed in this article. The approach considers information extracted from wavelet transformations of the observed multivariate hydrometeorological time series as the basis for regionalization by global fuzzy c-means clustering procedure. The approach can account for dynamic variability in the time series and its non-stationarity (if any). Effectiveness of the proposed approach in forming HMRs is demonstrated by application to India, as there are no prior attempts to form such regions over the country. Drought severity-area-frequency (SAF) curves are constructed corresponding to each of the newly formed regions for the use in regional drought analysis, by considering standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as the drought indicator.

Formulation of a mathematical approach to regional frequency analysis

Estimation of design quantiles of hydrometeorological variables at critical locations in river basins is necessary for hydrological applications. To arrive at reliable estimates for locations (sites) where no or limited records are available, various regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures have been developed over the past five decades. The most widely used procedure is based on index-flood approach and L-moments. It assumes that values of scale and shape parameters of frequency distribution are identical across all the sites in a homogeneous region. In real-world scenario, this assumption may not be valid even if a region is statistically homogeneous. To address this issue, a novel mathematical approach is proposed. It involves (i) identification of an appropriate frequency distribution to fit the random variable being analyzed for homogeneous region, (ii) use of a proposed transformation mechanism to map observations of the variable from original space to a dimensionless space where the form of distribution does not change, and variation in values of its parameters is minimal across sites, (iii) construction of a growth curve in the dimensionless space, and (iv) mapping the curve to the original space for the target site by applying inverse transformation to arrive at required quantile(s) for the site. Effectiveness of the proposed approach (PA) in predicting quantiles for ungauged sites is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulation experiments considering five frequency distributions that are widely used in RFA, and by case study on watersheds in conterminous United States. Results indicate that the PA outperforms methods based on index-flood approach.

Delineation of homogeneous temperature regions: a two-stage clustering approach

Homogeneous temperature regions are necessary for use in hydrometeorological studies. The regions are often delineated by analysing statistics derived from time series of maximum, minimum or mean temperature, rather than attributes influencing temperature. This practice cannot yield meaningful regions in data-sparse areas. Further, independent validation of the delineated regions for homogeneity in temperature is not possible, as temperature records form the basis to arrive at the regions. To address these issues, a two-stage clustering approach is proposed in this study to delineate homogeneous temperature regions. First stage of the approach involves (1) determining correlation structure between observed temperature over the study area and possible predictors (large-scale atmospheric variables) influencing the temperature and (2) using the correlation structure as the basis to delineate sites in the study area into clusters. Second stage of the approach involves analysis on each of the clusters to (1) identify potential predictors (large-scale atmospheric variables) influencing temperature at sites in the cluster and (2) partition the cluster into homogeneous fuzzy temperature regions using the identified potential predictors. Application of the proposed approach to India yielded 28 homogeneous regions that were demonstrated to be effective when compared to an alternate set of 6 regions that were previously delineated over the study area. Intersite cross-correlations of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures in the existing regions were found to be weak and negative for several months, which is undesirable. This problem was not found in the case of regions delineated using the proposed approach. Utility of the proposed regions in arriving at estimates of potential evapotranspiration for ungauged locations in the study area is demonstrated.