Origin of a trend in ECMWF wind analysis and its objective removal

The suitability of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational wind analysis for the period 1980-1991 for studying interannual variability is examined. The changes in the model and the analysis procedure are shown to give rise to a systematic and significant trend in the large scale circulation features. A new method of removing the systematic errors at all levels is presented using multivariate EOF analysis. Objectively detrended analysis of the three-dimensional wind field agrees well with independent Florida State University (FSU) wind analysis at the surface. It is shown that the interannual variations in the detrended surface analysis agree well in amplitude as well as spatial patterns with those of the FSU analysis. Therefore, the detrended analyses at other levels as well are expected to be useful for studies of variability and predictability at interannual time scales. It is demonstrated that this trend in the wind field is due to the shift in the climatologies from the period 1980-1985 to the period 1986-1991.

Vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere during active and weak phases of convection over the north Bay of Bengal: Observation and model results

Owing to the lack of atmospheric vertical profile data with sufficient accuracy and vertical resolution, the response of the deep atmosphere to passage of monsoon systems over the Bay of Bengal. had not been satisfactorily elucidated. Under the Indian Climate Research Programme, a special observational programme called 'Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment' (BOBMEX), was conducted during July-August 1999. The present study is based on the high-resolution radiosondes launched during BOBMEX in the north Bay. Clear changes in the vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere between active and weak phases of convection have been observed. The atmosphere cooled below 6 km height and became warmer between 6 and 13 km height. The warmest layer was located between 8 and 10 km height, and the coldest layer was found just below 5 km height. The largest fluctuations in the humidity field occurred in the mid-troposphere. The observed changes between active and weak phases of convection are compared with the results from an atmospheric general circulation model, which is similar to that used at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, New Delhi. The model is not able to capture realistically some important features of the temperature and humidity profiles in the lower troposphere and in the boundary layer during the active and weak spells.

Ship-Mounted Real-Time Surface Observational System on board Indian Vessels for Validation and Refinement of Model Forcing Fields

A network of ship-mounted real-time Automatic Weather Stations integrated with Indian geosynchronous satellites Indian National Satellites (INSATs)] 3A and 3C, named Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services Real-Time Automatic Weather Stations (I-RAWS), is established. The purpose of I-RAWS is to measure the surface meteorological-ocean parameters and transmit the data in real time in order to validate and refine the forcing parameters (obtained from different meteorological agencies) of the Indian Ocean Forecasting System (INDOFOS). Preliminary validation and intercomparison of analyzed products obtained from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts using the data collected from I-RAWS were carried out. This I-RAWS was mounted on board oceanographic research vessel Sagar Nidhi during a cruise across three oceanic regimes, namely, the tropical Indian Ocean, the extratropical Indian Ocean, and the Southern Ocean. The results obtained from such a validation and intercomparison, and its implications with special reference to the usage of atmospheric model data for forcing ocean model, are discussed in detail. It is noticed that the performance of analysis products from both atmospheric models is similar and good; however, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts air temperature over the extratropical Indian Ocean and wind speed in the Southern Ocean are marginally better.

Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough

: We illustrate how climatological information about adverse weather events and meteorological forecasts (when available) can be used to decide between alternative strategies so as to maximize the long-term average returns for rainfed groundnut in semi-arid parts of Karnataka, We show that until the skill of the forecast, i.e. probability of an adverse event occurring when it is forecast, is above a certain threshold, the forecast has no impact on the optimum strategy, This threshold is determined by the loss in yield due to the adverse weather event and the cost of the mitigatory measures, For the specific case of groundnut, it is found that while for combating some pests/diseases, climatological information is adequate, for others a forecast of sufficient skill would have a significant impact on the productivity.

Dynamics of a dilute sheared inelastic fluid. I. Hydrodynamic modes and velocity correlation functions

The hydrodynamic modes and the velocity autocorrelation functions for a dilute sheared inelastic fluid are analyzed using an expansion in the parameter epsilon=(1-e)(1/2), where e is the coefficient of restitution. It is shown that the hydrodynamic modes for a sheared inelastic fluid are very different from those for an elastic fluid in the long-wave limit, since energy is not a conserved variable when the wavelength of perturbations is larger than the ``conduction length.'' In an inelastic fluid under shear, there are three coupled modes, the mass and the momenta in the plane of shear, which have a decay rate proportional to k(2/3) in the limit k -> 0, if the wave vector has a component along the flow direction. When the wave vector is aligned along the gradient-vorticity plane, we find that the scaling of the growth rate is similar to that for an elastic fluid. The Fourier transforms of the velocity autocorrelation functions are calculated for a steady shear flow correct to leading order in an expansion in epsilon. The time dependence of the autocorrelation function in the long-time limit is obtained by estimating the integral of the Fourier transform over wave number space. It is found that the autocorrelation functions for the velocity in the flow and gradient directions decay proportional to t(-5/2) in two dimensions and t(-15/4) in three dimensions. In the vorticity direction, the decay of the autocorrelation function is proportional to t(-3) in two dimensions and t(-7/2) in three dimensions.

Hydrodynamic Pressure on a Dam During Earthquakes

A straightforward analysis involving Fourier cosine transforms and the theory of Fourier seies is presented for the approximate calculation of the hydrodynamic pressure exerted on the vertical upstream face of a dam due to constant earthquake ground acceleration. The analysis uses the “Parseval relation” on the Fourier coefficients of square integrable functions, and directly brings out the mathematical nature of the approximate theory involved.

Practical Algorithms For Mean Velocity Estimation In Pulse Doppler Weather Radars Using A Small Number Of Samples

Doppler weather radars with fast scanning rates must estimate spectral moments based on a small number of echo samples. This paper concerns the estimation of mean Doppler velocity in a coherent radar using a short complex time series. Specific results are presented based on 16 samples. A wide range of signal-to-noise ratios are considered, and attention is given to ease of implementation. It is shown that FFT estimators fare poorly in low SNR and/or high spectrum-width situations. Several variants of a vector pulse-pair processor are postulated and an algorithm is developed for the resolution of phase angle ambiguity. This processor is found to be better than conventional processors at very low SNR values. A feasible approximation to the maximum entropy estimator is derived as well as a technique utilizing the maximization of the periodogram. It is found that a vector pulse-pair processor operating with four lags for clear air observation and a single lag (pulse-pair mode) for storm observation may be a good way to estimate Doppler velocities over the entire gamut of weather phenomena.

Two Methods of Ambiguity Resolution in Pulse Doppler Weather Radars

A comparison is made of the performance of a weather Doppler radar with a staggered pulse repetition time and a radar with a random (but known) phase. As a standard for this comparison, the specifications of the forthcoming next generation weather radar (NEXRAD) are used. A statistical analysis of the spectral momentestimates for the staggered scheme is developed, and a theoretical expression for the signal-to-noise ratio due to recohering-filteringrecohering for the random phase radar is obtained. Algorithms for assignment of correct ranges to pertinent spectral moments for both techniques are presented.

Hydrodynamic pressure on a dam with a periodically corrugated reservoir bed

The problem of determining the hydrodynamic pressure, caused by earthquake forces, on a dam with a vertical upstream face and a periodically corrugated reservoir bed is solved approximately by employing a Fourier cosine transform technique to the linearised equations of inviscid and incompressible flow. A particular case of the present problem giving rise to results valid for dams with flat reservoir beds is shown to produce known results as a check of the method used.

On the non-existence of hydrodynamic solution of surface plasmons at the bimetallic interface

It is shown that for an abrupt bimetallic interface a hydrodynamic solution for interface plasmons does not exist. It appears that this result is valid irrespective of the choice of of the additional boundary condition, thereby suggesting a careful look at the use of usual hydrodynamic equations for a bimetallic interface.

Technological-forecasting and research inputs in area of birth-control technology

Technological forecasting, defined as quantified probabilistic prediction of timings and degree of change in the technological parameters, capabilities desirability or needs at different times in the future, is applied to birth control technology (BCT) as a means of revealing the paths of most promising research through identifying the necessary points for breakthroughs. The present status of BCT in the areas of pills and the IUD, male contraceptives, immumological approaches, post-coital pills, abortion, sterilization, luteolytic agents, laser technologies, and control of the sex of the child, are each summarized and evaluated in turn. Fine mapping is done to identify the most potentially promising areas of BCT. These include efforts to make oral contraception easier, improvement of the design of the IUD, clinical evaluation of the male contraceptive danazol, the effecting of biochemical changes in the seminal fluid, and researching of immunological approaches and the effects of other new drugs such as prostaglandins. The areas that require immediate and large research inputs are oral contraception and the IUD. On the basis of population and technological forecasts, it is deduced that research efforts could most effectively aid countries like India through the immediate production of an oral contraceptive pill or IUD with long-lasting effects. Development of a pill for males or an immunization against pre gnancy would also have a significant impact. However, the major impediment to birth control programs to date is attitudes, which must be changed through education.

Designing Dense Radar Networks for Weather Surveillance in Tropical Regions.

Design considerations are presented for a dense weather radar network to support multiple services including aviation. Conflicts, tradeoffs and optimization issues in the context of operation in a tropical region are brought out. The upcoming Indian radar network is used as a case study. Algorithms for data mosaicing are briefly outlined.

Anomalous behavior of hydrodynamic modes in the two dimensional shear flow of a granular material

The growth rates of the hydrodynamic modes in the homogeneous sheared state of a granular material are determined by solving the Boltzmann equation. The steady velocity distribution is considered to be the product of the Maxwell Boltzmann distribution and a Hermite polynomial expansion in the velocity components; this form is inserted into them Boltzmann equation and solved to obtain the coeificients of the terms in the expansion. The solution is obtained using an expansion in the parameter epsilon =(1 - e)(1/2), and terms correct to epsilon(4) are retained to obtain an approximate solution; the error due to the neglect of higher terms is estimated at about 5% for e = 0.7. A small perturbation is placed on the distribution function in the form of a Hermite polynomial expansion for the velocity variations and a Fourier expansion in the spatial coordinates: this is inserted into the Boltzmann equation and the growth rate of the Fourier modes is determined. It is found that in the hydrodynamic limit, the growth rates of the hydrodynamic modes in the flow direction have unusual characteristics. The growth rate of the momentum diffusion mode is positive, indicating that density variations are unstable in the limit k--> 0, and the growth rate increases proportional to kslash} k kslash}(2/3) in the limit k --> 0 (in contrast to the k(2) increase in elastic systems), where k is the wave vector in the flow direction. The real and imaginary parts of the growth rate corresponding to the propagating also increase proportional to kslash k kslash(2/3) (in contrast to the k(2) and k increase in elastic systems). The energy mode is damped due to inelastic collisions between particles. The scaling of the growth rates of the hydrodynamic modes with the wave vector I in the gradient direction is similar to that in elastic systems. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.