CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25ha), all stems 1cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 degrees S-61 degrees N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 degrees C), changes in precipitation (up to +/- 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8g Nm(-2)yr(-1) and 3.1g Sm(-2)yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.

Climate change and forests in India

Forests play a critical role in addressing climate change concerns in the broader context of global change and sustainable development. Forests are linked to climate change in three ways. i) Forests are a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: ii) Forests offer mitigation opportunities to stabilise GHG concentrations: iii) Forests are impacted by climate change. This paper reviews studies related to climate change and forests in India: first, the studies estimating carbon inventory for the Indian land use change and forestry sector (LUCF), then the different models and mitigation potential estimates for the LUCF sector in India. Finally it reviews the studies on the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in India, identifying the implications for net primary productivity and bio-diversity. The paper highlights data, modelling and research gaps relevant to the GHG inventory, mitigation potential and vulnerability and impact assessments for the forest sector in India.

Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

Climate change and forests in India: adaptation opportunities and challenges

Climate change is projected to lead to shift of forest types leading to irreversible damage to forests by rendering several species extinct and potentially affecting the livelihoods of local communities and the economy. Approximately 47% and 42% of tropical dry deciduous grids are projected to undergo shifts under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios respectively, as opposed to less than 16% grids comprising of tropical wet evergreen forests. Similarly, the tropical thorny scrub forest is projected to undergo shifts in majority of forested grids under A2 (more than 80%) as well as B2 scenarios (50% of grids). Thus the forest managers and policymakers need to adapt to the ecological as well as the socio-economic impacts of climate change. This requires formulation of effective forest management policies and practices, incorporating climate concerns into long-term forest policy and management plans. India has formulated a large number of innovative and progressive forest policies but a mechanism to ensure effective implementation of these policies is needed. Additional policies and practices may be needed to address the impacts of climate change. This paper discusses an approach and steps involved in the development of an adaptation framework as well as policies, strategies and practices needed for mainstreaming adaptation to cope with projected climate change. Further, the existing barriers which may affect proactive adaptation planning given the scale, accuracy and uncertainty associated with assessing climate change impacts are presented.

Forest policies and programs affecting vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

Due to large scale afforestation programs and forest conservation legislations, India's total forest area seems to have stabilized or even increased. In spite of such efforts, forest fragmentation and degradation continues, with forests being subject to increased pressure due to anthropogenic factors. Such fragmentation and degradation is leading to the forest cover to change from very dense to moderately dense and open forest and 253 km(2) of very dense forest has been converted to moderately dense forest, open forest, scrub and non-forest (during 2005-2007). Similarly, there has been a degradation of 4,120 km(2) of moderately dense forest to open forest, scrub and non-forest resulting in a net loss of 936 km(2) of moderately dense forest. Additionally, 4,335 km(2) of open forest have degraded to scrub and non-forest. Coupled with pressure due to anthropogenic factors, climate change is likely to be an added stress on forests. Forest sector programs and policies are major factors that determine the status of forests and potentially resilience to projected impacts of climate change. An attempt is made to review the forest policies and programs and their implications for the status of forests and for vulnerability of forests to projected climate change. The study concludes that forest conservation and development policies and programs need to be oriented to incorporate climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.

Impact of climate change at species level: a case study of teak in India

In this study, we model the long-term effect of climate change on commercially important teak (Tectona grandis) and its productivity in India. This modelling assessment is based on climate projections of the regional climate model of the Hadley Center (HadRM3) and the dynamic vegetation model, IBIS. According to the model projections, 30% of teak grids in India are vulnerable to climate change under both A2 and B2 SRES scenarios because the future climate may not be optimal for teak at these grids. However, the net primary productivity and biomass are expected to increase because of elevated levels of CO2. Given these directions of likely impacts, it is crucial to further investigate the climate change impacts on teak and incorporate such findings into long-term teak plantation programs. This study also demonstrates the feasibility and limitations of assessing the impact of projected climate change at the species level in the tropics.

Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m(2)/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (-5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (-2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS-a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

Impacts of climate change and management responses in tropical forests depend on complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal

AimBiodiversity outcomes under global change will be influenced by a range of ecological processes, and these processes are increasingly being considered in models of biodiversity change. However, the level of model complexity required to adequately account for important ecological processes often remains unclear. Here we assess how considering realistically complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal influences the projected climate change outcomes for plant diversity in the Australian Wet Tropics (all 4313 species). LocationThe Australian Wet Tropics, Queensland, Australia. MethodsWe applied a metacommunity model (M-SET) to project biodiversity outcomes using seed dispersal models that varied in complexity, combined with alternative climate change scenarios and habitat restoration scenarios. ResultsWe found that the complexity of the dispersal model had a larger effect on projected biodiversity outcomes than did dramatically different climate change scenarios. Applying a simple dispersal model that ignored spatial, temporal and taxonomic variation due to frugivore-mediated seed dispersal underestimated the reduction in the area of occurrence of plant species under climate change and overestimated the loss of diversity in fragmented tropical forest remnants. The complexity of the dispersal model also changed the habitat restoration approach identified as the best for promoting persistence of biodiversity under climate change. Main conclusionsThe consideration of complex processes such as frugivore-mediated seed dispersal can make an important difference in how we understand and respond to the influence of climate change on biodiversity.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100EJ: high agreement; 100-300EJ: medium agreement; above 300EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245EJyr(-1) to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment (>200EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2 degrees degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.

Sustainable bioenergy production strategies for rural India

The paper aims to assess the potential of decentralized bioenergy technologies in meeting rural energy needs and reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Decentralized energy planning is carried out for the year 2005 and 2020. Decentralized energy planning model using goal programming technique is applied for different decentralized scales (village to a district) for obtaining the optimal mix of energy resources and technologies. Results show that it is possible to meet the energy requirements of all the services that are necessary to promote development and improve the quality of life in rural areas from village to district scale, by utilizing the locally available energy resources such as cattle dung, leaf litter and woody biomass feedstock from bioenergy plantation on wastelands. The decentralized energy planning model shows that biomass feedstock required at village to district level can even be obtained from biomass conserved by shifting to biogas for cooking. Under sustainable development scenario, the decentralized energy planning model shows that there is negligible emission of CO2, oxide of Sulphur (SOx) and oxide of nitrogen (NOx), even while meeting all the energy needs.

CO2-fertilization and potential future terrestrial carbon uptake in India

There is huge knowledge gap in our understanding of many terrestrial carbon cycle processes. In this paper, we investigate the bounds on terrestrial carbon uptake over India that arises solely due to CO (2) -fertilization. For this purpose, we use a terrestrial carbon cycle model and consider two extreme scenarios: unlimited CO2-fertilization is allowed for the terrestrial vegetation with CO2 concentration level at 735 ppm in one case, and CO2-fertilization is capped at year 1975 levels for another simulation. Our simulations show that, under equilibrium conditions, modeled carbon stocks in natural potential vegetation increase by 17 Gt-C with unlimited fertilization for CO2 levels and climate change corresponding to the end of 21st century but they decline by 5.5 Gt-C if fertilization is limited at 1975 levels of CO2 concentration. The carbon stock changes are dominated by forests. The area covered by natural potential forests increases by about 36% in the unlimited fertilization case but decreases by 15% in the fertilization-capped case. Thus, the assumption regarding CO2-fertilization has the potential to alter the sign of terrestrial carbon uptake over India. Our model simulations also imply that the maximum potential terrestrial sequestration over India, under equilibrium conditions and best case scenario of unlimited CO2-fertilization, is only 18% of the 21st century SRES A2 scenarios emissions from India. The limited uptake potential of the natural potential vegetation suggests that reduction of CO2 emissions and afforestation programs should be top priorities.

Algal biofuel production and mitigation potential in India

Energy and energy services are the backbone of growth and development in India and is increasingly dependent upon the use of fossil based fuels that lead to greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and related concerns. Algal biofuels are being evolved as carbon (C)-neutral alternative biofuels. Algae are photosynthetic microorganisms that convert sunlight, water and carbon dioxide (CO2) to various sugars and lipids Tri-Acyl-Glycols (TAG) and show promise as an alternative, renewable and green fuel source for India. Compared to land based oilseed crops algae have potentially higher yields (5-12 g/m(2)/d) and can use locations and water resources not suited for agriculture. Within India, there is little additional land area for algal cultivation and therefore needs to be carried out in places that are already used for agriculture, e.g. flooded paddy lands (20 Mha) with village level technologies and on saline wastelands (3 Mha). Cultivating algae under such conditions requires novel multi-tier, multi-cyclic approaches of sharing land area without causing threats to food and water security as well as demand for additional fertilizer resources by adopting multi-tier cropping (algae-paddy) in decentralized open pond systems. A large part of the algal biofuel production is possible in flooded paddy crop land before the crop reaches dense canopies, in wastewaters (40 billion litres per day), in salt affected lands and in nutrient/diversity impoverished shallow coastline fishery. Mitigation will be achieved through avoidance of GHG, C-capture options and substitution of fossil fuels. Estimates made in this paper suggest that nearly half of the current transportation petro-fuels could be produced at such locations without disruption of food security, water security or overall sustainability. This shift can also provide significant mitigation avenues. The major adaptation needs are related to socio-technical acceptance for reuse of various wastelands, wastewaters and waste-derived energy and by-products through policy and attitude change efforts.