Connectionist approach for global optimization

A connectionist approach for global optimization is proposed. The standard function set is tested. Results obtained, in the case of large scale problems, indicate excellent scalability of the proposed approach

Network approach for capturing ligand-induced subtle global changes in protein structures

Ligand-induced conformational changes in proteins are of immense functional relevance. It is a major challenge to elucidate the network of amino acids that are responsible for the percolation of ligand-induced conformational changes to distal regions in the protein from a global perspective. Functionally important subtle conformational changes (at the level of side-chain noncovalent interactions) upon ligand binding or as a result of environmental variations are also elusive in conventional studies such as those using root-mean-square deviations (r.m.s.d.s). In this article, the network representation of protein structures and their analyses provides an efficient tool to capture these variations (both drastic and subtle) in atomistic detail in a global milieu. A generalized graph theoretical metric, using network parameters such as cliques and/or communities, is used to determine similarities or differences between structures in a rigorous manner. The ligand-induced global rewiring in the protein structures is also quantified in terms of network parameters. Thus, a judicious use of graph theory in the context of protein structures can provide meaningful insights into global structural reorganizations upon perturbation and can also be helpful for rigorous structural comparison. Data sets for the present study include high-resolution crystal structures of serine proteases from the S1A family and are probed to quantify the ligand-induced subtle structural variations.

A perturbed martingale approach to global optimization

A new global stochastic search, guided mainly through derivative-free directional information computable from the sample statistical moments of the design variables within a Monte Carlo setup, is proposed. The search is aided by imparting to the directional update term additional layers of random perturbations referred to as `coalescence' and `scrambling'. A selection step, constituting yet another avenue for random perturbation, completes the global search. The direction-driven nature of the search is manifest in the local extremization and coalescence components, which are posed as martingale problems that yield gain-like update terms upon discretization. As anticipated and numerically demonstrated, to a limited extent, against the problem of parameter recovery given the chaotic response histories of a couple of nonlinear oscillators, the proposed method appears to offer a more rational, more accurate and faster alternative to most available evolutionary schemes, prominently the particle swarm optimization. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy Approach to Rank Global Climate Models

Eleven coupled model intercomparison project 3 based global climate models are evaluated for the case study of Upper Malaprabha catchment, India for precipitation rate. Correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square deviation, and skill score are considered as performance indicators for evaluation in fuzzy environment and assumed to have equal impact on the global climate models. Fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution is used to rank global climate models. Top three positions are occupied by MIROC3, GFDL2.1 and GISS with relative closeness of 0.7867, 0.7070, and 0.7068. IPSL-CM4, NCAR-PCMI occupied the tenth and eleventh positions with relative closeness of 0.4959 and 0.4562.

Fuzzy waste load allocation model: a multiobjective approach

Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (FWLAM), developed in an earlier study, derives the optimal fractional levels, for the base flow conditions, considering the goals of the Pollution Control Agency (PCA) and dischargers. The Modified Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (MFWLAM) developed subsequently is a stochastic model and considers the moments (mean, variance and skewness) of water quality indicators, incorporating uncertainty due to randomness of input variables along with uncertainty due to imprecision. The risk of low water quality is reduced significantly by using this modified model, but inclusion of new constraints leads to a low value of acceptability level, A, interpreted as the maximized minimum satisfaction in the system. To improve this value, a new model, which is a combination Of FWLAM and MFWLAM, is presented, allowing for some violations in the constraints of MFWLAM. This combined model is a multiobjective optimization model having the objectives, maximization of acceptability level and minimization of violation of constraints. Fuzzy multiobjective programming, goal programming and fuzzy goal programming are used to find the solutions. For the optimization model, Probabilistic Global Search Lausanne (PGSL) is used as a nonlinear optimization tool. The methodology is applied to a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in south India. The model results in a compromised solution of a higher value of acceptability level as compared to MFWLAM, with a satisfactory value of risk. Thus the goal of risk minimization is achieved with a comparatively better value of acceptability level.

A mathematical programming approach to optimal Markovian switching of Poisson arrival streams to queueing systems

Motivated by certain situations in manufacturing systems and communication networks, we look into the problem of maximizing the profit in a queueing system with linear reward and cost structure and having a choice of selecting the streams of Poisson arrivals according to an independent Markov chain. We view the system as a MMPP/GI/1 queue and seek to maximize the profits by optimally choosing the stationary probabilities of the modulating Markov chain. We consider two formulations of the optimization problem. The first one (which we call the PUT problem) seeks to maximize the profit per unit time whereas the second one considers the maximization of the profit per accepted customer (the PAC problem). In each of these formulations, we explore three separate problems. In the first one, the constraints come from bounding the utilization of an infinite capacity server; in the second one the constraints arise from bounding the mean queue length of the same queue; and in the third one the finite capacity of the buffer reflect as a set of constraints. In the problems bounding the utilization factor of the queue, the solutions are given by essentially linear programs, while the problems with mean queue length constraints are linear programs if the service is exponentially distributed. The problems modeling the finite capacity queue are non-convex programs for which global maxima can be found. There is a rich relationship between the solutions of the PUT and PAC problems. In particular, the PUT solutions always make the server work at a utilization factor that is no less than that of the PAC solutions.

Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70-100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Government's Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

Genome analysis: A new approach for visualization of sequence organization in genomes

In this article we describe and demonstrate the versatility of a computer program, GENOME MAPPING, that uses interactive graphics and runs on an IRIS workstation. The program helps to visualize as well as analyse global and local patterns of genomic DNA sequences. It was developed keeping in mind the requirements of the human genome sequencing programme, which requires rapid analysis of the data. Using GENOME MAPPING one can discern signature patterns of different kinds of sequences and analyse such patterns for repetitive as well as rare sequence strings. Further, one can visualize the extent of global homology between different genomic sequences. An application of our method to the published yeast mitochondrial genome data shows similar sequence organizations in the entire sequence and in smaller subsequences.

Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

A Distributed Approach to Interference Cancellation

In this paper, we propose and analyze a novel idea of performing interference cancellation (IC) in a distributed/cooperative manner, with a motivation to provide multiuser detection (MUD) benefit to nodes that have only a single user detection capability. In the proposed distributed interference cancellation (DIC) scheme, during phase-1 of transmission, an MUD capable cooperating relay node estimates all the sender nodes' bits through multistage interference cancellation. These estimated bits are then sent by the relay node on orthogonal tones in phase-2 of transmission. The destination nodes receive these bit estimates and use them for interference estimation/cancellation, thus achieving IC benefit in a distributed manner. For this DIC scheme, we analytically derive an exact expression for the bit error rate (BER) in a basic five-node network (two source-destination node pairs and a cooperating relay node) on AWGN channels. Analytical BER results are shown to match with simulation results. For more general system scenarios, including more than two source-destination pairs and fading channels without and with space-time coding, we present simulation results to establish the potential for improved performance in the proposed distributed approach to interference cancellation. We also present a linear version of the proposed DIC.

Support Vector Machine Approach to Downscale Precipitation in Climate Change Scenarios

Concern over changes in global climate has increased in recent years with improvement in understanding of atmospheric dynamics and growth in evidence of climate link to long‐term variability in hydrologic records. Climate impact studies rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. Towards this, the past decade has witnessed significant progress in development of downscaling models to cascade the climate information provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) at coarse spatial resolution to the scale relevant for hydrologic studies. While a plethora of downscaling models have been applied successfully to mid‐latitude regions, a few studies are available on tropical regions where the atmosphere is known to have more complex behavior. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling to interpret climate change signals provided by GCMs over tropical regions of India. Climate variables affecting spatio‐temporal variation of precipitation at each meteorological sub‐division of India are identified. Following this, cluster analysis is applied on climate data to identify the wet and dry seasons in each year. The data pertaining to climate variables and precipitation of each meteorological sub‐division is then used to develop SVM based downscaling model for each season. Subsequently, the SVM based downscaling model is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological inputs to the meteorological sub‐divisions. The results obtained from the SVM downscaling model are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India.

The Contribution of Rare Species to Community Phylogenetic Diversity across a Global Network of Forest Plots

Niche differentiation has been proposed as an explanation for rarity in species assemblages. To test this hypothesis requires quantifying the ecological similarity of species. This similarity can potentially be estimated by using phylogenetic relatedness. In this study, we predicted that if niche differentiation does explain the co-occurrence of rare and common species, then rare species should contribute greatly to the overall community phylogenetic diversity (PD), abundance will have phylogenetic signal, and common and rare species will be phylogenetically dissimilar. We tested these predictions by developing a novel method that integrates species rank abundance distributions with phylogenetic trees and trend analyses, to examine the relative contribution of individual species to the overall community PD. We then supplement this approach with analyses of phylogenetic signal in abundances and measures of phylogenetic similarity within and between rare and common species groups. We applied this analytical approach to 15 long-term temperate and tropical forest dynamics plots from around the world. We show that the niche differentiation hypothesis is supported in six of the nine gap-dominated forests but is rejected in the six disturbance-dominated and three gap-dominated forests. We also show that the three metrics utilized in this study each provide unique but corroborating information regarding the phylogenetic distribution of rarity in communities.

Interaction Signatures Stabilizing the NAD(P)-Binding Rossmann Fold: A Structure Network Approach

The fidelity of the folding pathways being encoded in the amino acid sequence is met with challenge in instances where proteins with no sequence homology, performing different functions and no apparent evolutionary linkage, adopt a similar fold. The problem stated otherwise is that a limited fold space is available to a repertoire of diverse sequences. The key question is what factors lead to the formation of a fold from diverse sequences. Here, with the NAD(P)-binding Rossmann fold domains as a case study and using the concepts of network theory, we have unveiled the consensus structural features that drive the formation of this fold. We have proposed a graph theoretic formalism to capture the structural details in terms of the conserved atomic interactions in global milieu, and hence extract the essential topological features from diverse sequences. A unified mathematical representation of the different structures together with a judicious concoction of several network parameters enabled us to probe into the structural features driving the adoption of the NAD(P)-binding Rossmann fold. The atomic interactions at key positions seem to be better conserved in proteins, as compared to the residues participating in these interactions. We propose a ``spatial motif'' and several ``fold specific hot spots'' that form the signature structural blueprints of the NAD(P)-binding Rossmann fold domain. Excellent agreement of our data with previous experimental and theoretical studies validates the robustness and validity of the approach. Additionally, comparison of our results with statistical coupling analysis (SCA) provides further support. The methodology proposed here is general and can be applied to similar problems of interest.

A generalized Stein's estimation approach to speech enhancement based on perceptual criteria

We address the problem of speech enhancement using a risk- estimation approach. In particular, we propose the use the Stein’s unbiased risk estimator (SURE) for solving the problem. The need for a suitable finite-sample risk estimator arises because the actual risks invariably depend on the unknown ground truth. We consider the popular mean-squared error (MSE) criterion first, and then compare it against the perceptually-motivated Itakura-Saito (IS) distortion, by deriving unbiased estimators of the corresponding risks. We use a generalized SURE (GSURE) development, recently proposed by Eldar for MSE. We consider dependent observation models from the exponential family with an additive noise model,and derive an unbiased estimator for the risk corresponding to the IS distortion, which is non-quadratic. This serves to address the speech enhancement problem in a more general setting. Experimental results illustrate that the IS metric is efficient in suppressing musical noise, which affects the MSE-enhanced speech. However, in terms of global signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the minimum MSE solution gives better results.