The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model

We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated.

Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India

Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of nonstationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regionalization of extreme rainfall in India

Regionalization of extreme rainfall is useful for various applications in hydro-meteorology. There is dearth of regionalization studies on extreme rainfall in India. In this perspective, a set of 25 regions that are homogeneous in 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-day extreme rainfall is delineated based on seasonality measure of extreme rainfall and location indicators (latitude, longitude and altitude) by using global fuzzy c-means (GFCM) cluster analysis. The regions are validated for homogeneity in L-moment framework. One of the applications of the regions is in arriving at quantile estimates of extreme rainfall at sparsely gauged/ungauged locations using options such as regional frequency analysis (RFA). The RFA involves use of rainfall-related information from gauged sites in a region as the basis to estimate quantiles of extreme rainfall for target locations that resemble the region in terms of rainfall characteristics. A procedure for RFA based on GFCM-delineated regions is presented and its effectiveness is evaluated by leave-one-out cross validation. Error in quantile estimates for ungauged sites is compared with that resulting from the use of region-of-influence (ROI) approach that forms site-specific regions exclusively for quantile estimation. Results indicate that error in quantile estimates based on GFCM regions and ROI are fairly close, and neither of them is consistent in yielding the least error over all the sites. The cluster analysis approach was effective in reducing the number of regions to be delineated for RFA.

Waxing and waning of observed extreme annual tropical rainfall

We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the most recent decade (1998-present) compared with the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (compared with 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to a cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation further, a similar comparison is performed between 1960 and 1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979-1997 compared with 1960-1978. Taking this evidence together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO.

No-reference image quality assessment using modified extreme learning machine classifier

In this paper, we present a machine learning approach to measure the visual quality of JPEG-coded images. The features for predicting the perceived image quality are extracted by considering key human visual sensitivity (HVS) factors such as edge amplitude, edge length, background activity and background luminance. Image quality assessment involves estimating the functional relationship between HVS features and subjective test scores. The quality of the compressed images are obtained without referring to their original images ('No Reference' metric). Here, the problem of quality estimation is transformed to a classification problem and solved using extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. In ELM, the input weights and the bias values are randomly chosen and the output weights are analytically calculated. The generalization performance of the ELM algorithm for classification problems with imbalance in the number of samples per quality class depends critically on the input weights and the bias values. Hence, we propose two schemes, namely the k-fold selection scheme (KS-ELM) and the real-coded genetic algorithm (RCGA-ELM) to select the input weights and the bias values such that the generalization performance of the classifier is a maximum. Results indicate that the proposed schemes significantly improve the performance of ELM classifier under imbalance condition for image quality assessment. The experimental results prove that the estimated visual quality of the proposed RCGA-ELM emulates the mean opinion score very well. The experimental results are compared with the existing JPEG no-reference image quality metric and full-reference structural similarity image quality metric.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore

This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Bangalore, South India. Analyses have been carried out considering the seismotectonic parameters of the region covering a radius of 350 km keeping Bangalore as the center. Seismic hazard parameter `b' has been evaluated considering the available earthquake data using (1) Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relationship and (2) Kijko and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) method utilizing extreme and complete catalogs. The `b' parameter was estimated to be 0.62 to 0.98 from G-R relation and 0.87 +/- A 0.03 from Kijko and Sellevoll method. The results obtained are a little higher than the `b' values published earlier for southern India. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore region has been carried out considering six seismogenic sources. From the analysis, mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of the rock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) are mapped for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km x 0.5 km. In addition, Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level is also developed for the 5% damping corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.121 g obtained from the present investigation is slightly lower (but comparable) than the PGA values obtained from the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) for the same area. However, the PGA value obtained in the current investigation is higher than PGA values reported in the global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) maps of Bhatia et al. (1999) for the shield area.

A Global Constraint On Relative Rotation To Avoid Lumped Compliant Mechanisms In Topology Optimization

Some of the well known formulations for topology optimization of compliant mechanisms could lead to lumped compliant mechanisms. In lumped compliance, most of the elastic deformation in a mechanism occurs at few points, while rest of the mechanism remains more or less rigid. Such points are referred to as point-flexures. It has been noted in literature that high relative rotation is associated with point-flexures. In literature we also find a formulation of local constraint on relative rotations to avoid lumped compliance. However it is well known that a global constraint is easier to handle than a local constraint, by a numerical optimization algorithm. The current work presents a way of putting global constraint on relative rotations. This constraint is also simpler to implement since it uses linearized rotation at the center of finite-elements, to compute relative rotations. I show the results obtained by using this constraint oil the following benchmark problems - displacement inverter and gripper.

On global summer monsoonal drought mechanics

It is shown that within the framework of a linear five-level quasi-geostrophic steady state global model the middle latitude systems can always have significant influence on the Asian summer monsoonal system through the lower tropospheric monsoonal westerly window region around 80°E. It is hypothesized that quasistationarity of the middle latitude longwave systems results in stronger teleconnections through this window and the consequent monsoon breaks when the phase is right.

A global convergence criterion for discrete-time multivariable adaptive systems

The paper deals with the basic problem of adjusting a matrix gain in a discrete-time linear multivariable system. The object is to obtain a global convergence criterion, i.e. conditions under which a specified error signal asymptotically approaches zero and other signals in the system remain bounded for arbitrary initial conditions and for any bounded input to the system. It is shown that for a class of up-dating algorithms for the adjustable gain matrix, global convergence is crucially dependent on a transfer matrix G(z) which has a simple block diagram interpretation. When w(z)G(z) is strictly discrete positive real for a scalar w(z) such that w-1(z) is strictly proper with poles and zeros within the unit circle, an augmented error scheme is suggested and is proved to result in global convergence. The solution avoids feeding back a quadratic term as recommended in other schemes for single-input single-output systems.

Small local variations in B-form DNA lead to a large variety of global geometries which can accommodate most DNA-binding protein motifs

An important question of biological relevance is the polymorphism of the double-helical DNA structure in its free form, and the changes that it undergoes upon protein-binding. We have analysed a database of free DNA crystal structures to assess the inherent variability of the free DNA structure and have compared it with a database of protein-bound DNA crystal structures to ascertain the protein-induced variations.

An End-Use Oriented Global Energy Strategy

Abstract is not available.

Vibration-rotation pattern in acetylene. II. Introduction of Coriolis coupling in the global model and analysis of emission spectra of hot acetylene around 3 mu m

A high temperature source has been developed and coupled to a high resolution Fourier transform spectrometer to record emission spectra of acetylene around 3 mu m up to 1455 K under Doppler limited resolution (0.015 cm(-1)). The nu(3)-ground state (GS) and nu(2)+nu(4)+nu(5)(Sigma(+)(u) and Delta(u))-GS bands and 76 related hot bands, counting e and f parities separately, are assigned using semiautomatic methods based on a global model to reproduce all related vibration-rotation states. Significantly higher J-values than previously reported are observed for 40 known substates while 37 new e or f vibrational substates, up to about 6000 cm(-1), are identified and characterized by vibration-rotation parameters. The 3 811 new or improved data resulting from the analysis are merged into the database presented by Robert et al. [Mol. Phys. 106, 2581 (2008)], now including 15 562 lines accessing vibrational states up to 8600 cm(-1). A global model, updated as compared to the one in the previous paper, allows all lines in the database to be simultaneously fitted, successfully. The updates are discussed taking into account, in particular, the systematic inclusion of Coriolis interaction.

Quasi-periodic, global oscillations in sea level pressure on intraseasonal timescales

The sea level pressure (SLP) variability in 30-60 day intraseasonal timescales is investigated using 25 years of reanalysis data addressing two issues. The first concerns the non-zero zonal mean component of SLP near the equator and its meridional connections, and the second concerns the fast eastward propagation (EP) speed of SLP compared to that of zonal wind. It is shown that the entire globe resonates with high amplitude wave activity during some periods which may last for few to several months, followed by lull periods of varying duration. SLP variations in the tropical belt are highly coherent from 25A degrees S to 25A degrees N, uncorrelated with variations in mid latitudes and again significantly correlated but with opposite phase around 60A degrees S and 65A degrees N. Near the equator (8A degrees S-8A degrees N), the zonal mean contributes significantly to the total variance in SLP, and after its removal, SLP shows a dominant zonal wavenumber one structure having a periodicity of 40 days and EP speeds comparable to that of zonal winds in the Indian Ocean. SLP from many of the atmospheric and coupled general circulation models show similar behaviour in the meridional direction although their propagation characteristics in the tropical belt differ widely.

Global lopsided instability in a purely stellar galactic disc

It is shown that pure exponential discs in spiral galaxies are capable of supporting slowly varying discrete global lopsided modes, which can explain the observed features of lopsidedness in the stellar discs. Using linearized fluid dynamical equations with the softened self-gravity and pressure of the perturbation as the collective effect, we derive self-consistently a quadratic eigenvalue equation for the lopsided perturbation in the galactic disc. On solving this, we find that the ground-state mode shows the observed characteristics of the lopsidedness in a galactic disc, namely the fractional Fourier amplitude A(1), increases smoothly with the radius. These lopsided patterns precess in the disc with a very slow pattern speed with no preferred sense of precession. We show that the lopsided modes in the stellar disc are long-lived because of a substantial reduction (approximately a factor of 10 compared to the local free precession rate) in the differential precession. The numerical solution of the equations shows that the groundstate lopsided modes are either very slowly precessing stationary normal mode oscillations of the disc or growing modes with a slow growth rate depending on the relative importance of the collective effect of the self-gravity. N-body simulations are performed to test the spontaneous growth of lopsidedness in a pure stellar disc. Both approaches are then compared and interpreted in terms of long-lived global m = 1 instabilities, with almost zero pattern speed.

On the roles of the northeast cold surge, the Borneo vortex, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole during the extreme 2006/2007 flood in southern Peninsular Malaysia

The mid-December 2006 to late January 2007 flood in southern Peninsular Malaysia was the worst flood in a century and was caused by three extreme precipitation episodes. These extreme precipitation events were mainly associated with strong northeasterly winds over the South China Sea. In all cases, the northeasterlies penetrated anomalously far south and followed almost a straight trajectory. The elevated terrain over Sumatra and southern Peninsular Malaysia caused low-level convergence. The strong easterly winds near Java associated with the Rossby wave-type response to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) inhibited the counter-clockwise turning of the northeasterlies and the formation of the Borneo vortex, which, in turn, enhanced the low-level convergence over the region. The abrupt termination of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in December 2006 played a secondary role as warmer equatorial Indian Ocean helped in the MJO formation.