Correction for Bias in Downscaling GCM Simulations for Hydrologic Impact Assessment

In a statistical downscaling model, it is important to remove the bias of General Circulations Model (GCM) outputs resulting from various assumptions about the geophysical processes. One conventional method for correcting such bias is standardisation, which is used prior to statistical downscaling to reduce systematic bias in the mean and variances of GCM predictors relative to the observations or National Centre for Environmental Prediction/ National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. A major drawback of standardisation is that it may reduce the bias in the mean and variance of the predictor variable but it is much harder to accommodate the bias in large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation in GCMs (e.g. shifts in the dominant storm track relative to observed data) or unrealistic inter-variable relationships. While predicting hydrologic scenarios, such uncorrected bias should be taken care of; otherwise it will propagate in the computations for subsequent years. A statistical method based on equi-probability transformation is applied in this study after downscaling, to remove the bias from the predicted hydrologic variable relative to the observed hydrologic variable for a baseline period. The model is applied in prediction of monsoon stream flow of Mahanadi River in India, from GCM generated large scale climatological data.

Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

Assessing GCM Convergence for India Using the Variable Convergence Score

General circulation models (GCMs) use transient climate simulations to predict climate conditions in the future. Coarse-grid resolutions and process uncertainties necessitate the use of downscaling models to simulate precipitation. However, in the downscaling models, with multiple GCMs now available, selecting an atmospheric variable from a particular model which is representative of the ensemble mean becomes an important consideration. The variable convergence score (VCS) provides a simple yet meaningful approach to address this issue, providing a mechanism to evaluate variables against each other with respect to the stability they exhibit in future climate simulations. In this study, VCS methodology is applied to 10 atmospheric variables of particular interest in downscaling precipitation over India and also on a regional basis. The nested bias-correction methodology is used to remove the systematic biases in the GCMs simulations, and a single VCS curve is developed for the entire country. The generated VCS curve is expected to assist in quantifying the variable performance across different GCMs, thus reducing the uncertainty in climate impact-assessment studies. The results indicate higher consistency across GCMs for pressure and temperature, and lower consistency for precipitation and related variables. Regional assessments, while broadly consistent with the overall results, indicate low convergence in atmospheric attributes for the Northeastern parts of India.

Stability of Dimeric Interface in Banana Lectin: Insight from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Banana lectin (Banlec) is a homodimeric non-glycosylated protein. It exhibits the b-prism I structure. High-temperature molecular dynamics simulations have been utilized to monitor and understand early stages of thermally induced unfolding of Banlec. The present study elucidates the behavior of the dimeric protein at four different temperatures and compares the structural and conformational changes to that of the minimized crystal structure. The process of unfolding was monitored by following the radius of gyration, the rms deviation of each residue, change in relative solvent accessibility and the pattern of inter- and intra-subunit interactions. The overall study demonstrates that the Banlec dimer is a highly stable structure, and the stability is mostly contributed by interfacial interactions. It maintains its overall conformation during high-temperature (400–500 K) simulations, with only the unstructured loop regions acquiring greater momentum under such condition. Nevertheless, at still higher temperatures (600 K) the tertiary structure is gradually lost which later extends to loss of secondary structural elements. The pattern of hydrogen bonding within the subunit and at the interface across different stages has been analyzed and has provided rationale for its intrinsic high stability.

CMC simulations of lifted turbulent jet flame in a vitiated coflow

Lifted turbulent jet diffusion flame is simulated using Conditional Moment Closure (CMC). Specifically, the burner configuration of Cabra et al. [R. Cabra, T. Myhrvold, J.Y. Chen. R.W. Dibble, A.N. Karpetis, R.S. Barlow, Proc. Combust. Inst. 29 (2002) 1881-1887] is chosen to investigate H-2/N-2 jet flame supported by a vitiated coflow of products of lean H-2/air combustion. A 2D, axisymmetric flow-model fully coupled with the scalar fields, is employed. A detailed chemical kinetic scheme is included, and first order CIVIC is applied. Simulations are carried out for different jet velocities and coflow temperatures (T-c) The predicted liftoff generally agrees with experimental data, as well as joint-PDF results. Profiles of mean scalar fluxes in the mixture fraction space, for T-c = 1025 and 1080 K reveal that (1) Inside the flame zone, the chemical term balances the molecular diffusion term, and hence the Structure is of a diffusion flamelet for both cases. (2) In the pre-flame zone, the structure depends on the coflow temperature: for the 1025 K case, the chemical term being small, the advective term balances the axial turbulent diffusion term. However, for the 1080 K case. the chemical term is large and balances the advective term, the axial turbulent diffusion term being small. It is concluded that, lift-off is controlled (a) by turbulent premixed flame propagation for low coflow temperature while (b) by autoignition for high coflow temperature. (C) 2009 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulations of void growth near a notch tip in ductile single crystals

The objective of this work is to study the growth of a cylindrical void ahead of a notch tip in ductile FCC single crystals under mode I, plane strain, small scale yielding (SSY) conditions. To this end, finite element simulations are performed within crystal plasticity framework neglecting elastic anisotropy. Attention is focussed on the effects of crystal hardening, ratio of void diameter to spacing from the notch and crystal orientation on plastic flow localization in the ligament connecting the notch and the void as well as their growth. The results show strong interaction between shear bands emanating from the notch and angular sectors of single slip forming around the void leading to intense plastic strain development in the ligament. Further, the ductile fracture processes are retarded by increase in hardening of the single crystal and decrease in ratio of void diameter to spacing from the notch. Also, a strong influence of crystal orientation on near-tip void growth and plastic slip band development is observed. Finally, the synergistic, cooperative growth of multiple voids ahead of the notch tip is examined.

Allostery in tRNA Synthetases Elucidated from MD Simulations and Protein Structure Networks

tRNA synthetases (aaRS) are enzymes crucial in the translation of genetic code. The enzyme accylates the acceptor stem of tRNA by the congnate amino acid bound at the active site, when the anti-codon is recognized by the anti-codon site of aaRS. In a typical aaRS, the distance between the anti-codon region and the amino accylation site is approximately 70 Å. We have investigated this allosteric phenomenon at molecular level by MD simulations followed by the analysis of protein structure networks (PSN) of non-covalent interactions. Specifically, we have generated conformational ensembles by performing MD simulations on different liganded states of methionyl tRNA synthetase (MetRS) from Escherichia coli and tryptophenyl tRNA synthetase (TrpRS) from Human. The correlated residues during the MD simulations are identified by cross correlation maps. We have identified the amino acids connecting the correlated residues by the shortest path between the two selected members of the PSN. The frequencies of paths have been evaluated from the MD snapshots[1]. The conformational populations in different liganded states of the protein have been beautifully captured in terms of network parameters such as hubs, cliques and communities[2]. These parameters have been associated with the rigidity and plasticity of the protein conformations and can be associated with free energy landscape. A comparison of allosteric communication in MetRS and TrpRS [3] elucidated in this study highlights diverse means adopted by different enzymes to perform a similar function. The computational method described for these two enzymes can be applied to the investigation of allostery in other systems.

Fast Accurate Transient Stability Simulations

The paper describes a Simultaneous Implicit (SI) approach for transient stability simulations based on an iterative technique using traingularised admittance matrix [1]. The reduced saliency of generator in the subtransient state is taken advantage of to speed up the algorithm. Accordingly, generator differential equations, except rotor swing, contain voltage proportional to fluxes in the main field, dampers and a hypothetical winding representing deep flowing eddy currents, as state variables. The simulation results are validated by comparison with two independent methods viz. Runge-Kutta simulation for a simplified system and a method based on modelling damper windings using conventional induction motor theory.

Indentation strength of a piezoelectric ceramic: Experiments and simulations

The spherical indentation strength of a lead zirconate titanate (PZT) piezoelectric ceramic was investigated under poled and unpoled conditions and with different electrical boundary conditions (arising through the use of insulating or conducting indenters). Experimental results show that the indentation strength of the poled PZT is higher than that of the unpoled PZT. The strength of a poled PZT under a conducting indenter is higher than that under an insulating indenter. Poling direction (with respect to the direction of indentation loading) did not significantly affect the strength of material. Complementary finite element analysis (FEA) of spherical indentation of an elastic, linearly coupled piezoelectric half-space is conducted for rationalizing the experimental observations. Simulations show marked dependency of the contact stress on the boundary conditions. In particular, contact stress redistribution in the Coupled problem leads to a change in the fracture initiation, from Hertzian cracking in the unpoled material to Subsurface damage initiation in poled PZT. These observations help explain the experimental ranking of strength the PZT in different material conditions or under different boundary conditions.

Molecular dynamics simulations of sliding in an Fe-Cu tribopair system

Experimental evidence suggests that high strain rates, stresses, strains and temperatures are experienced near sliding interfaces. The associated microstructural changes are due to several dynamic an interacting phenomena. 3D non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of sliding were conducted with the aim of understanding the dynamic processes taking place in crystalline tribopairs, with a focus on plastic deformation and microstructural evolution. Embedded atom potentials were employed for simulating sliding of an Fe-Cu tribopair. Sliding velocity, crystal orientation and presence of lattice defects were some of the variables in these simulations. Extensive plastic deformation involving dislocation and twin activity, dynamic recrystallization, amorphization and/or nanocrystallization, mechanical mixing and material transfer were observed. Mechanical mixing in the vicinity of the sliding interface was observed even in the Fe-Cu system, which would cluster under equilibrium conditions, hinting at the ballistic nature of the process. Flow localization was observed at high velocities implying the possible role of adiabatic heating. The presence of preexisting defects (such as dislocations and interfaces) played a pivotal role in determining friction and microstructural evolution. The study also shed light on the relationship between adhesion and plastic deformation, and friction. Comparisons with experiments suggest that such simulations can indeed provide valuable insights that are difficult to obtain from experiments.

Statistically steady turbulence in thin films: direct numerical simulations with Ekman friction

We present a detailed direct numerical simulation (DNS) of the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equation with the incompressibility constraint and air-drag-induced Ekman friction; our DNS has been designed to investigate the combined effects of walls and such a friction on turbulence in forced thin films. We concentrate on the forward-cascade regime and show how to extract the isotropic parts of velocity and vorticity structure functions and hence the ratios of multiscaling exponents. We find that velocity structure functions display simple scaling, whereas their vorticity counterparts show multiscaling, and the probability distribution function of the Weiss parameter 3, which distinguishes between regions with centers and saddles, is in quantitative agreement with experiments.

Evolution of texture during equal channel angular extrusion of commercially pure aluminum: Experiments and simulations

The evolution of crystallographic texture has been comprehensively studied for commercially pure Al as a function of amount of ECAE deformation for the three major routes of ECAE processing. It has been observed that processing through different routes leads to different type of texture, in both qualitative as well as quantitative sense. The results have been analyzed on the basis of existing concepts on ECAE deformation and simulations have been carried out using the simple shear model of ECAE implemented into the Viscoplastic Self Consistent model of polycrystal plasticity. The simulations revealed that non-octahedral slip is needed to reproduce the experimental texture development.