A Macroscopic Model for First Return Stroke of Lightning

A lightning return stroke model for a downward flash is proposed. The model includes underlying physical phenomena governing return stroke evolution, namely, electric field due to charge distributed along the leader and cloud, transient enhancement of series channel conductance at the bridging regime, and the nonlinear variation of channel conductance, which supports the return stroke current evolution. Thermal effects of free burning arc at the stroke wave front and its impact on channel conductance are studied. A first-order arc model for determining the dynamic channel conductance along with a field-dependent conductivity for corona sheath is used in the model. The model predicts consistent current propagation along the channel with regard to current amplitude and return stroke velocity. The model is also capable of predicting the remote electromagnetic fields that are consistent with the experimental observations.

Genesis of return stroke current evolution at the wavefront

The channel dynamics at the wavefront is quite complex and is basically responsible for the evolution of return stroke current. The physical processes that actually contribute to the current evolution are not very clearly known. The enhancement of channel conductance at the wavefront is necessary for the current evolution and hence, return stroke. With regard to this, several questions arise like: (i) what causes the enhancement of this conductance, (ii) as the channel core temperature and electrical conductance are closely related, does one support the other and (iii) is the increase in core temperature on the nascent section of the channel is the result of free burning arc of the wavefront just below. These questions are investigated in detail in this work with appropriate transient thermal analysis and a macroscopic physical model for the lightning return stroke. Results clearly indicate that the contribution from the thermal field of the wavefront region to the adjacent nascent channel section is negligible as compared to the field enhancement brought in by the same. In other words, the whole process of return stroke evolution is dependent on the local heat generation at the nascent section caused by the enhancement of the electric field due to the arrival of the wavefront.

An inquisitive analysis on the temporal variation of return stroke current essential for producing observed remote electro-magnetic fields

The gross characteristics of spatio-temporal current evolution in the return stroke phase of a cloud-to-ground lightning are rather well defined. However, they by themselves do not ensure the salient features for the resulting remote Electro- Magnetic Fields (EMFs). In spite of significant efforts in the engineering models wherein, the spatio-temporal current distribution all along the channel is specified by the design, all the salient features of remote EMFs could not be achieved. Only the current evolution that ensures the basic characteristics along with its ability to reproduce all the salient features of remote EMFs ranging from 50 m – 200 km from the lightning channel, can be considered as a realistic return stroke channel current. In view of this, the present work intends to investigate on the required fine features of the return stroke current evolution that yields all the desired features. To ensure that the current evolution is not arbitrary but obeys the involved basic physical processes, a recently developed physical model will be employed for the analysis.

Return levels of hydrologic droughts under climate change

Developments in the statistical extreme value theory, which allow non-stationary modeling of changes in the frequency and severity of extremes, are explored to analyze changes in return levels of droughts for the Colorado River. The transient future return levels (conditional quantiles) derived from regional drought projections using appropriate extreme value models, are compared with those from observed naturalized streamflows. The time of detection is computed as the time at which significant differences exist between the observed and future extreme drought levels, accounting for the uncertainties in their estimates. Projections from multiple climate model-scenario combinations are considered; no uniform pattern of changes in drought quantiles is observed across all the projections. While some projections indicate shifting to another stationary regime, for many projections which are found to be non-stationary, detection of change in tail quantiles of droughts occurs within the 21st century with no unanimity in the time of detection. Earlier detection is observed in droughts levels of higher probability of exceedance. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.