Use of Data Driven Techniques for Short Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting in Mahanadi basin

Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model for natural channels

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model (FDFRM) for natural channels is presented, wherein the flood wave can be approximated to a monoclinal wave. This study is based on modification of an earlier published work by the same authors, where the nature of the wave was of gravity type. Momentum equation of the dynamic wave model is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. Hence, the FDFRM gets rid of the assumptions associated with the momentum equation. Also, it overcomes the necessity of calculating friction slope (S-f) in flood routing and hence the associated uncertainties are eliminated. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on an equation for wave velocity, which is obtained in terms of discontinuities in the gradient of flow parameters. The channel reach is divided into a number of approximately uniform sub-reaches. Training set required for development of the fuzzy rule based model for each sub-reach is obtained from discharge-area relationship at its mean section. For highly heterogeneous sub-reaches, optimized fuzzy rule based models are obtained by means of a neuro-fuzzy algorithm. For demonstration, the FDFRM is applied to flood routing problems in a fictitious channel with single uniform reach, in a fictitious channel with two uniform sub-reaches and also in a natural channel with a number of approximately uniform sub-reaches. It is observed that in cases of the fictitious channels, the FDFRM outputs match well with those of an implicit numerical model (INM), which solves the dynamic wave equations using an implicit numerical scheme. For the natural channel, the FDFRM Outputs are comparable to those of the HEC-RAS model.

Ways and Means for Disposal of Surplus Water in Storage Reservoirs and other Irrigation and Flood Protective Works

In the paper new way of classifying spillways have been suggested. The various types, merits and demerits or existing spillway devices have been discussed. The considerations governing the choice of a design of a spillway have been mention. A criteria for working out the economics of spillway design has been suggested. An efficient surplus sing device has next been described and compared with other devices. In conclusion it has been suggested that the most efficient and at the same time economical arrangement will be a combination of devices. In conclusion it has been suggested will be a combination of crest gate, volute siphons and high head gates. The appendix gives a list of devices used in dams in various parts of the world.

Various Methods of Designing Spillway Capacity of Dams and Estimating Flood Discharges

Abstract is not available.

Effect of wave parameters on flood wave subsidence

A detailed analy~is on the propagation of a sinusoidal flood wave in a wide prismatic open channel b.as hen made by numc? ii.~ll~integrating We govemins nondimenional equations of unsteady flow in an open chamei. EmpE:dsis has been laid on the effect of wave parmefen on th propagation of 6.8 sinusoidal wave. Results show that the amount of subsidence is more in the case of small wave anplltude and wave duration cases. Further, wave duration has been noticed to have a relatively Vier influence on subsidence than wave amplitude. The speed at which the peak of the wave moves is observed to be a function of only the wave amplitude.

Parametric Study of Flood Wave Propagation

A parametric study of the flood wave propagation problem is made, based on numerical solution of the nondimensionalized unsteady flow equations of open channels. The propagation of a sinusoidal flood wave in a prismatic channel is studied for uniform initial flow. The governing parameters (initial uniform flow Froude number, wave amplitude, wave duration, channel width parameter and side slope) are varied over a wide range. In all, 49 cases are studied. Effects of these governing parameters on the subsidence of stage and discharge and the speed of the wave peak are described in detail. The relative wave amplitude is found to vary linearly with F0, the initial uniform flow froude number, for lower F0 values. Wave duration has a very pronounced effect on subsidence with greater subsidence at lower wave duration values.

Technological-forecasting and research inputs in area of birth-control technology

Technological forecasting, defined as quantified probabilistic prediction of timings and degree of change in the technological parameters, capabilities desirability or needs at different times in the future, is applied to birth control technology (BCT) as a means of revealing the paths of most promising research through identifying the necessary points for breakthroughs. The present status of BCT in the areas of pills and the IUD, male contraceptives, immumological approaches, post-coital pills, abortion, sterilization, luteolytic agents, laser technologies, and control of the sex of the child, are each summarized and evaluated in turn. Fine mapping is done to identify the most potentially promising areas of BCT. These include efforts to make oral contraception easier, improvement of the design of the IUD, clinical evaluation of the male contraceptive danazol, the effecting of biochemical changes in the seminal fluid, and researching of immunological approaches and the effects of other new drugs such as prostaglandins. The areas that require immediate and large research inputs are oral contraception and the IUD. On the basis of population and technological forecasts, it is deduced that research efforts could most effectively aid countries like India through the immediate production of an oral contraceptive pill or IUD with long-lasting effects. Development of a pill for males or an immunization against pre gnancy would also have a significant impact. However, the major impediment to birth control programs to date is attitudes, which must be changed through education.

On the roles of the northeast cold surge, the Borneo vortex, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole during the extreme 2006/2007 flood in southern Peninsular Malaysia

The mid-December 2006 to late January 2007 flood in southern Peninsular Malaysia was the worst flood in a century and was caused by three extreme precipitation episodes. These extreme precipitation events were mainly associated with strong northeasterly winds over the South China Sea. In all cases, the northeasterlies penetrated anomalously far south and followed almost a straight trajectory. The elevated terrain over Sumatra and southern Peninsular Malaysia caused low-level convergence. The strong easterly winds near Java associated with the Rossby wave-type response to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) inhibited the counter-clockwise turning of the northeasterlies and the formation of the Borneo vortex, which, in turn, enhanced the low-level convergence over the region. The abrupt termination of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in December 2006 played a secondary role as warmer equatorial Indian Ocean helped in the MJO formation.

Optimal Reservoir Operation for Flood Control Using Folded Dynamic Programming

Folded Dynamic Programming (FDP) is adopted for developing optimalnreservoir operation policies for flood control. It is applied to a case study of Hirakud Reservoir in Mahanadi basin, India with the objective of deriving optimal policy for flood control. The river flows down to Naraj, the head of delta where a major city is located and finally joins the Bay of Bengal. As Hirakud reservoir is on the upstream side of delta area in the basin, it plays an important role in alleviating the severity of the flood for this area. Data of 68 floods such as peaks of inflow hydrograph, peak of outflow from reservoir during each flood, peak of flow hydrograph at Naraj and d/s catchment contribution are utilized. The combinations of 51, 54, 57 thousand cumecs as peak inflow into reservoir and 25.5, 20, 14 thousand cumecs respectively as,peak d/s catchment contribution form the critical combinations for flood situation. It is observed that the combination of 57 thousand cumecs of inflow into reservoir and 14 thousand cumecs for d/s catchment contribution is the most critical among the critical combinations of flow series. The method proposed can be extended to similar situations for deriving reservoir operating policies for flood control.

Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough

: We illustrate how climatological information about adverse weather events and meteorological forecasts (when available) can be used to decide between alternative strategies so as to maximize the long-term average returns for rainfed groundnut in semi-arid parts of Karnataka, We show that until the skill of the forecast, i.e. probability of an adverse event occurring when it is forecast, is above a certain threshold, the forecast has no impact on the optimum strategy, This threshold is determined by the loss in yield due to the adverse weather event and the cost of the mitigatory measures, For the specific case of groundnut, it is found that while for combating some pests/diseases, climatological information is adequate, for others a forecast of sufficient skill would have a significant impact on the productivity.

Extended Muskingum method for flood routing

Routing of floods is essential to control the flood flow at the flood control station such that it is within the specified safe limit. In this paper, the applicability of the extended Muskingum method is examined for routing of floods for a case study of Hirakud reservoir, Mahanadi river basin, India. The inflows to the flood control station are of two types-one controllable which comprises of reservoir releases for power and spill and the other is uncontrollable which comprises of inflow from lower tributaries and intermediate catchment between the reservoir and the flood control station. Muskingum model is improved to incorporate multiple sources of inflows and single outflow to route the flood in the reach. Instead of time lag and prismoidal flow parameters, suitable coefficients for various types of inflows were derived using Linear Programming. Presently, the decisions about operation of gates of Hirakud dam are being taken once in 12 h during floods. However, four time intervals of 24, 18, 12 and 6 h are examined to test the sensitivity of the routing time interval on the computed flood flow at the flood control station. It is observed that mean relative error decreases with decrease in routing interval both for calibration and testing phase. It is concluded that the extended Muskingum method can be explored for similar reservoir configurations such as Hirakud reservoir with suitable modifications. (C) 2010 International Association of Hydro-environment Engineering and Research. Asia Pacific Division. Published by Elsevier By. All rights reserved.