Conserving Biodiversity as If People Matter: A Case Study from India

India has rich traditions of nature conservation as well as a vigorous official program of protection of nature reserves developed over the last 40 years. However, the officialp rograms uffers fromt otal relianceo n authoritarianm anagement arrangements in which decisions are made centrally and coercion is used to implement them. At the same time, the state apparatus organises subsidized resource flows to the urbanindustrial- intensivea griculturalc omplex which promote inefficient,n on-sustainable resource-use patterns that are inimical to conservation of biodiversity. These processes are illustrated within the concrete setting of the district of Uttara Kannada in southern India. It is suggested that the interests of conservation would be served far better by an approach that withdraws the subsidies to the elite so that a much more efficient, sustainable and equitable pattern of resource use, compatible with conservation of biodiversity, can be instituted. In conjunction with this, the larger society should involve local people in working out detailed plans for conservation of biodiversity and offer them adequate authority as well as appropriate financial incentives to implement these plans. The paper goes on to illustrate how such an approach may be implemented in the case of Uttara Kannada.

Deforestation and forest degradation in India - implications for REDD+

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is considered as an important mechanism under the UNFCCC aimed at mitigating climate change. The Cancun Agreement on REDD mechanism has paved the way for designing and implementation of REDD+ activities, to assist countries experiencing large-scale deforestation and forest degradation. Contrary to the general perception, the present analysis shows that India is currently experiencing deforestation and forest degradation. According to the latest assessment of the Forest Survey of India, the net annual loss of forests is estimated to be 99,850 ha during the period 2007-2009, even though the total area under forests has increased. The REDD+ mechanism aims to provide financial incentives for reducing deforestation and forest degradation. India, despite having robust legislations, policies and remote sensing capabilities, is not ready to benefit from the emerging REDD+ mechanism, with potential flow of large financial benefits to rural and forest-dependent communities from international financial sources.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.