A Spatial Planning Support System for Managing Bangalore's Urban Sprawl

Urban sprawl is the outgrowth along the periphery of cities and along highways. Although an accurate definition of urban sprawl may be debated, a consensus is that urban sprawl is characterized by an unplanned and uneven pattern of growth, driven by multitude of processes and leading to inefficient resource utilization. Urbanization in India has never been as rapid as it is in recent times. As one of the fastest growing economies in the world, India faces stiff challenges in managing the urban sprawl, while ensuring effective delivery of basic services in urban areas. The urban areas contribute significantly to the national economy (more than 50% of GDP), while facing critical challenges in accessing basic services and necessary infrastructure, both social and economic. The overall rise in the population of the urban poor or the increase in travel times due to congestion along road networks are indicators of the effectiveness of planning and governance in assessing and catering for this demand. Agencies of governance at all levels: local bodies, state government and federal government, are facing the brunt of this rapid urban growth. It is imperative for planning and governance to facilitate, augment and service the requisite infrastructure over time systematically. Provision of infrastructure and assurance of the delivery of basic services cannot happen overnight and hence planning has to facilitate forecasting and service provision with appropriate financial mechanisms.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.