Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

A comparative analysis of regeneration in natural forests and joint forest management plantations in Uttara Kannada district, Western Ghats

Five villages undertaking joint forest management (JFM) were chosen in Uttara Kannada district, Karnataka for assessing regeneration in plantations and nearby natural forests of the village. Species number, stem density, diversity index, similarity in species composition in less disturbed and disturbed forests and plantations in the village were compared. Stem density was low in all the disturbed forests; however, the species number was low in disturbed forests of three villages and high in two villages. Plantations showed lower diversity values compared to the adjacent natural forests. Regeneration in all less disturbed forests was better compared to the disturbed counterparts. Villages were ranked based on number of landless families, per, capita forest available and number of cut stems. Assessment of village forests using ranks indicates that parameters such as per capita availability, cut stems in the forests may determine the success of JFM.

Forest area estimation and reporting: implications for conservation, management and REDD

Periodic estimation, monitoring and reporting on area under forest and plantation types and afforestation rates are critical to forest and biodiversity conservation, sustainable forest management and for meeting international commitments. This article is aimed at assessing the adequacy of the current monitoring and reporting approach adopted in India in the context of new challenges of conservation and reporting to international conventions and agencies. The analysis shows that the current mode of monitoring and reporting of forest area is inadequate to meet the national and international requirements. India could be potentially over-reporting the area under forests by including many non-forest tree categories such as commercial plantations of coconut, cashew, coffee and rubber, and fruit orchards. India may also be under-reporting deforestation by reporting only gross forest area at the state and national levels. There is a need for monitoring and reporting of forest cover, deforestation and afforestation rates according to categories such as (i) natural/primary forest, (ii) secondary/degraded forests, (iii) forest plantations, (iv) commercial plantations, (v) fruit orchards and (vi) scattered trees.

Relationship between annual rainfall and tree mortality in a tropical dry forest: Results of a 19-year study at Mudumalai, southern India

Variability in rainfall is known to be a major influence on the dynamics of tropical forests, especially rates and patterns of tree mortality. In tropical dry forests a number of contributing factors to tree mortality, including dry season fire and herbivory by large herbivorous mammals, could be related to rainfall patterns, while loss of water potential in trees during the dry season or a wet season drought could also result in enhanced rates of death. While tree mortality as influenced by severe drought has been examined in tropical wet forests there is insufficient understanding of this process in tropical dry forests. We examined these causal factors in relation to inter-annual differences in rainfall in causing tree mortality within a 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot located in the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mudumalai, southern India, that has been monitored annually since 1988. Over a 19-year period (1988-2007) mean annual mortality rate of all stems >1 cm dbh was 6.9 +/- 4.6% (range = 1.5-17.5%); mortality rates broadly declined from the smaller to the larger size classes with the rates in stems >30 cm dbh being among the lowest recorded in tropical forest globally. Fire was the main agent of mortality in stems 1-5 cm dbh, elephant-herbivory in stems 5-10 cm dbh, and other natural causes in stems > 10 cm dbh. Elephant-related mortality did not show any relationship to rainfall. On the other hand, fire-related mortality was significantly negatively correlated to quantity of rainfall during the preceding year. Mortality due to other causes in the larger stem sizes was significantly negatively correlated to rainfall with a 2-3-year lag, suggesting that water deficit from mild or prolonged drought enhanced the risk of death but only with a time lag that was greater than similar lags in tree mortality observed in other forest types. In this respect, tropical dry forests growing in regions of high rainfall variability may have evolved greater resistance to rainfall deficit as compared to tropical moist or temperate forests but are still vulnerable to drought-related mortality.

Climate change and forests in India: adaptation opportunities and challenges

Climate change is projected to lead to shift of forest types leading to irreversible damage to forests by rendering several species extinct and potentially affecting the livelihoods of local communities and the economy. Approximately 47% and 42% of tropical dry deciduous grids are projected to undergo shifts under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios respectively, as opposed to less than 16% grids comprising of tropical wet evergreen forests. Similarly, the tropical thorny scrub forest is projected to undergo shifts in majority of forested grids under A2 (more than 80%) as well as B2 scenarios (50% of grids). Thus the forest managers and policymakers need to adapt to the ecological as well as the socio-economic impacts of climate change. This requires formulation of effective forest management policies and practices, incorporating climate concerns into long-term forest policy and management plans. India has formulated a large number of innovative and progressive forest policies but a mechanism to ensure effective implementation of these policies is needed. Additional policies and practices may be needed to address the impacts of climate change. This paper discusses an approach and steps involved in the development of an adaptation framework as well as policies, strategies and practices needed for mainstreaming adaptation to cope with projected climate change. Further, the existing barriers which may affect proactive adaptation planning given the scale, accuracy and uncertainty associated with assessing climate change impacts are presented.

Challenges in vulnerability assessment of forests under climate change

Forest-management goals in the context of climate change are to reduce the adverse impact of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystem services and carbon stocks. For developing an effective adaptation strategy, knowledge on nature and sources of vulnerability of forests is necessary to conserve or enhance carbon sinks. However, assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems is a challenging task, as the mechanisms that determine vulnerability cannot be observed directly. In this article, we list the challenges in forest vulnerability assessments and propose an assessment of inherent vulnerability by using process-based indicators under the current climate. We also suggest periodic assessment of vulnerability, which is necessary to review adaptation strategies for the management of forests and forest carbon stocks.

Assessing ``inherent vulnerability'' of forests: a methodological approach and a case study from Western Ghats, India

The objective of this study is to present a methodological approach to assess the inherent vulnerability of forests and apply it to a case study. Addressing inherent vulnerability, resulting from current stresses, is a necessary step for building resilience to long-term climate change. The proposed approach includes use of analytical framework that enables selection of vulnerability criteria and indicators systematically, application of pairwise comparison method (PCM) for assigning weights, and synthesis of a composite vulnerability index. This methodological approach has been applied at local scale to Aduvalli Protected Forest in Western Ghats in South India, where a vulnerability index value of 0.248 is estimated. Results of the case study indicate that `preponderance of invasive species' and forest dependence of community are the major sources of vulnerability at present for Aduvalli Protected Forest. Adoption of this methodology can assist in development of forest management plans to enhance adaptability of Aduvalli PF to current as well as future stresses, including climate change. This methodological approach can be applied across forest-types after appropriate changes to criteria and indicators and their weights, to estimate the inherent vulnerability to enable development of adaptation strategy.

Distribution, relative abundance, and conservation status of Asian elephants in Karnataka, southern India

Karnataka state in southern India supports a globally significant and the country's largest population of the Asian elephant Elephas maximus. A reliable map of Asian elephant distribution and measures of spatial variation in their abundance, both vital needs for conservation and management action, are unavailable not only in Karnataka, but across its global range. Here, we use various data gathered between 2000 and 2015 to map the distribution of elephants in Karnataka at the scale of the smallest forest management unit, the `beat', while also presenting data on elephant dung density for a subset of `elephant beats.' Elephants occurred in 972 out of 2855 forest beats of Karnataka. Sixty percent of these 972 beats and 55% of the forest habitat lay outside notified protected areas (PM), and included lands designated for agricultural production and human dwelling. While median elephant dung density inside protected areas was nearly thrice as much as outside, elephants routinely occurred in or used habitats outside PM where human density, land fraction under cultivation, and the interface between human-dominated areas and forests were greater. Based on our data, it is clear that India's framework for elephant conservation which legally protects the species wherever it occurs, but protects only some of its habitats while being appropriate in furthering their conservation within PM, seriously falters in situations where elephants reside in and/or seasonally use areas outside PAs. Attempts to further elephant conservation in production and dwelling areas have extracted high costs in human, elephant, material and monetary terms in Karnataka. In such settings, conservation planning exercises are necessary to determine where the needs of elephants or humans must take priority over the other, and to achieve that in a manner that is based not only on reliable scientific data but also on a process of public reasoning. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Random forest algorithm with derived geographical layers for improved classification of remote sensing data

Effective conservation and management of natural resources requires up-to-date information of the land cover (LC) types and their dynamics. The LC dynamics are being captured using multi-resolution remote sensing (RS) data with appropriate classification strategies. RS data with important environmental layers (either remotely acquired or derived from ground measurements) would however be more effective in addressing LC dynamics and associated changes. These ancillary layers provide additional information for delineating LC classes' decision boundaries compared to the conventional classification techniques. This communication ascertains the possibility of improved classification accuracy of RS data with ancillary and derived geographical layers such as vegetation index, temperature, digital elevation model (DEM), aspect, slope and texture. This has been implemented in three terrains of varying topography. The study would help in the selection of appropriate ancillary data depending on the terrain for better classified information.

Long-Term Environmental Correlates of Invasion by Lantana camara (Verbenaceae) in a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest

Invasive species, local plant communities and invaded ecosystems change over space and time. Quantifying this change may lead to a better understanding of the ecology and the effective management of invasive species. We used data on density of the highly invasive shrub Lantana camara (lantana) for the period 1990-2008 from a 50 ha permanent plot in a seasonally dry tropical forest of Mudumalai in southern India. We used a cumulative link mixed-effects regression approach to model the transition of lantana from one qualitative density state to another as a function of biotic factors such as indicators of competition from local species (lantana itself, perennial grasses, invasive Chromolaena odorata, the native shrub Helicteres isora and basal area of native trees) and abiotic factors such as fire frequency, inter-annual variability of rainfall and relative soil moisture. The density of lantana increased substantially during the study period. Lantana density was negatively associated with the density of H. isora, positively associated with basal area of native trees, but not affected by the presence of grasses or other invasive species. In the absence of fire, lantana density increased with increasing rainfall. When fires occurred, transitions to higher densities occurred at low rainfall values. In drier regions, lantana changed from low to high density as rainfall increased while in wetter regions of the plot, lantana persisted in the dense category irrespective of rainfall. Lantana seems to effectively utilize resources distributed in space and time to its advantage, thus outcompeting local species and maintaining a population that is not yet self-limiting. High-risk areas and years could potentially be identified based on inferences from this study for facilitating management of lantana in tropical dry forests.

Identifying Priority Areas for Conservation and Management in Diverse Tropical Forests

The high concentration of the world's species in tropical forests endows these systems with particular importance for retaining global biodiversity, yet it also presents significant challenges for ecology and conservation science. The vast number of rare and yet to be discovered species restricts the applicability of species-level modelling for tropical forests, while the capacity of community classification approaches to identify priorities for conservation and management is also limited. Here we assessed the degree to which macroecological modelling can overcome shortfalls in our knowledge of biodiversity in tropical forests and help identify priority areas for their conservation and management. We used 527 plant community survey plots in the Australian Wet Tropics to generate models and predictions of species richness, compositional dissimilarity, and community composition for all the 4,313 vascular plant species recorded across the region (>1.3 million communities (grid cells)). We then applied these predictions to identify areas of tropical forest likely to contain the greatest concentration of species, rare species, endemic species and primitive angiosperm families. Synthesising these alternative attributes of diversity into a single index of conservation value, we identified two areas within the Australian wet tropics that should be a high priority for future conservation actions: the Atherton Tablelands and Daintree rainforest. Our findings demonstrate the value of macroecological modelling in identifying priority areas for conservation and management actions within highly diverse systems, such as tropical forests.

Forest observational studies in India: Past developments and considerations for the future

Long term forest research sites in India, going by different names including Linear Tree Increment Plots, Linear Increment Plots, Linear Sample Plots and Permanent Preservation Plots, cover diverse plant communities and environmental conditions. Presently, some of these long-term observational studies are functional, some are disturbed and others have almost been lost. The accumulated data will become increasingly important in the context of environmental modelling and climate change, especially if the plots and data can be maintained and/or revived. This contribution presents the history and current state of forest research plots in India, including details of locations and re-measurements. We provide a brief introduction of the National Forest Inventory (NFI), Preservation Plots in natural forests, the 50-ha Mudumalai Forest Dynamics Plot as part of the Centre for Tropical Forest Science and Smithsonian Institution Global Earth Observatories network (CTFS-SIGEO), and research plots established in plantations for tree growth studies and modelling. We also present some methodological details including assessment and analysis for two types of observational studies, the Tree Count Plots (TCP) and Tree Re-measurement Plots (TRP). Arguments are presented in favour of enumeration and analysis methods which are consistent with current approaches in forest ecological research. (c) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.