Total Factor Productivity Growth and Output Growth in Indian Electronics Industry in the Liberalization Era: An Empirical Examination

This paper analyses the efficiency and productivity growth of Electronics industry, which is considered one of the vibrant and rapidly growing manufacturing industry sub-sectors of India in the liberalization era since 1991. The main objective of the paper is to examine the extent and growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and its components namely, Technical Efficiency Change (TEC) and Technological Progress (TP) and its contribution to total output growth. In this study, the electronics industry is broadly classified into communication equipments, computer hardware, consumer electronics and other electronics, with the purpose of performing a comparative analysis of productivity growth for each of these sub-sectors for the time period 1993-2004. The paper found that the sub-sectors have improved in terms of economies of scale and contribution of capital.The change in technical efficiency and technological progress moved in reverse directions. Three of the four industry witnessed growth in the output primarily due to TFPG and the contribution of input growth to output growth had been negative/negligible, except for Computer hardware where contribution from both input growth and TFPG to output growth were prominent. The paper explored the possible reasons that addressed the issue of low technical efficiency and technological progress in the industry.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.