Application of nonlinear filtering to credit risk

Merton's model views equity as a call option on the asset of the firm. Thus the asset is partially observed through the equity. Then using nonlinear filtering an explicit expression for likelihood ratio for underlying parameters in terms of the nonlinear filter is obtained. As the evolution of the filter itself depends on the parameters in question, this does not permit direct maximum likelihood estimation, but does pave the way for the `Expectation-Maximization' method for estimating parameters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncoupling Protein 2 and 3 Gene Polymorphisms and Their Association with Type 2 Diabetes in Asian Indians

Background: This study examined the association of -866G/A, Ala55Val, 45bpI/D, and -55C/T polymorphisms at the uncoupling protein (UCP) 3-2 loci with type 2 diabetes in Asian Indians. Methods: A case-control study was performed among 1,406 unrelated subjects (487 with type 2 diabetes and 919 normal glucose-tolerant NGT]), chosen from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study, an ongoing population-based study in Southern India. The polymorphisms were genotyped using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism and direct sequencing. Haplotype frequencies were estimated using an expectation-maximization algorithm. Linkage disequilibrium was estimated from the estimates of haplotypic frequencies. Results: The genotype (P = 0.00006) and the allele (P = 0.00007) frequencies of Ala55Val of the UCP2 gene showed a significant protective effect against the development of type 2 diabetes. The odds ratios (adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index) for diabetes for individuals carrying Ala/Val was 0.72, and that for individuals carrying Val/Val was 0.37. Homeostasis insulin resistance model assessment and 2-h plasma glucose were significantly lower among Val-allele carriers compared to the Ala/Ala genotype within the NGT group. The genotype (P = 0.02) and the allele (P = 0.002) frequencies of -55C/T of the UCP3 gene showed a significant protective effect against the development of diabetes. The odds ratio for diabetes for individuals carrying CT was 0.79, and that for individuals carrying TT was 0.61. The haplotype analyses further confirmed the association of Ala55Val with diabetes, where the haplotypes carrying the Ala allele were significantly higher in the cases compared to controls. Conclusions: Ala55Val and -55C/T polymorphisms at the UCP3-2 loci are associated with a significantly reduced risk of developing type 2 diabetes in Asian Indians.

Bayesian Learning for Joint Sparse OFDM Channel Estimation and Data Detection

The impulse response of a typical wireless multipath channel can be modeled as a tapped delay line filter whose non-zero components are sparse relative to the channel delay spread. In this paper, a novel method of estimating such sparse multipath fading channels for OFDM systems is explored. In particular, Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) techniques are applied to jointly estimate the sparse channel and its second order statistics, and a new Bayesian Cramer-Rao bound is derived for the SBL algorithm. Further, in the context of OFDM channel estimation, an enhancement to the SBL algorithm is proposed, which uses an Expectation Maximization (EM) framework to jointly estimate the sparse channel, unknown data symbols and the second order statistics of the channel. The EM-SBL algorithm is able to recover the support as well as the channel taps more efficiently, and/or using fewer pilot symbols, than the SBL algorithm. To further improve the performance of the EM-SBL, a threshold-based pruning of the estimated second order statistics that are input to the algorithm is proposed, and its mean square error and symbol error rate performance is illustrated through Monte-Carlo simulations. Thus, the algorithms proposed in this paper are capable of obtaining efficient sparse channel estimates even in the presence of a small number of pilots.

Cramer-Rao-Type Bounds for Sparse Bayesian Learning

In this paper, we derive Hybrid, Bayesian and Marginalized Cramer-Rao lower bounds (HCRB, BCRB and MCRB) for the single and multiple measurement vector Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) problem of estimating compressible vectors and their prior distribution parameters. We assume the unknown vector to be drawn from a compressible Student-prior distribution. We derive CRBs that encompass the deterministic or random nature of the unknown parameters of the prior distribution and the regression noise variance. We extend the MCRB to the case where the compressible vector is distributed according to a general compressible prior distribution, of which the generalized Pareto distribution is a special case. We use the derived bounds to uncover the relationship between the compressibility and Mean Square Error (MSE) in the estimates. Further, we illustrate the tightness and utility of the bounds through simulations, by comparing them with the MSE performance of two popular SBL-based estimators. We find that the MCRB is generally the tightest among the bounds derived and that the MSE performance of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm coincides with the MCRB for the compressible vector. We also illustrate the dependence of the MSE performance of SBL based estimators on the compressibility of the vector for several values of the number of observations and at different signal powers.

Joint data detection and dominant singular mode estimation in time varying reciprocal MIMO systems

This paper proposes an algorithm for joint data detection and tracking of the dominant singular mode of a time varying channel at the transmitter and receiver of a time division duplex multiple input multiple output beamforming system. The method proposed is a modified expectation maximization algorithm which utilizes an initial estimate to track the dominant modes of the channel at the transmitter and the receiver blindly; and simultaneously detects the un known data. Furthermore, the estimates are constrained to be within a confidence interval of the previous estimate in order to improve the tracking performance and mitigate the effect of error propagation. Monte-Carlo simulation results of the symbol error rate and the mean square inner product between the estimated and the true singular vector are plotted to show the performance benefits offered by the proposed method compared to existing techniques.

On the relation between K-means and PLSA

Non-negative matrix factorization [5](NMF) is a well known tool for unsupervised machine learning. It can be viewed as a generalization of the K-means clustering, Expectation Maximization based clustering and aspect modeling by Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA). Specifically PLSA is related to NMF with KL-divergence objective function. Further it is shown that K-means clustering is a special case of NMF with matrix L2 norm based error function. In this paper our objective is to analyze the relation between K-means clustering and PLSA by examining the KL-divergence function and matrix L2 norm based error function.

STUDENT'S-t MIXTURE MODEL BASED MULTI-INSTRUMENT RECOGNITION IN POLYPHONIC MUSIC

We address the problem of multi-instrument recognition in polyphonic music signals. Individual instruments are modeled within a stochastic framework using Student's-t Mixture Models (tMMs). We impose a mixture of these instrument models on the polyphonic signal model. No a priori knowledge is assumed about the number of instruments in the polyphony. The mixture weights are estimated in a latent variable framework from the polyphonic data using an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, derived for the proposed approach. The weights are shown to indicate instrument activity. The output of the algorithm is an Instrument Activity Graph (IAG), using which, it is possible to find out the instruments that are active at a given time. An average F-ratio of 0 : 7 5 is obtained for polyphonies containing 2-5 instruments, on a experimental test set of 8 instruments: clarinet, flute, guitar, harp, mandolin, piano, trombone and violin.

Three-dimensional localization of multiple acoustic sources in shallow ocean with non-Gaussian noise

In this paper, a low-complexity algorithm SAGE-USL is presented for 3-dimensional (3-D) localization of multiple acoustic sources in a shallow ocean with non-Gaussian ambient noise, using a vertical and a horizontal linear array of sensors. In the proposed method, noise is modeled as a Gaussian mixture. Initial estimates of the unknown parameters (source coordinates, signal waveforms and noise parameters) are obtained by known/conventional methods, and a generalized expectation maximization algorithm is used to update the initial estimates iteratively. Simulation results indicate that convergence is reached in a small number of (<= 10) iterations. Initialization requires one 2-D search and one 1-D search, and the iterative updates require a sequence of 1-D searches. Therefore the computational complexity of the SAGE-USL algorithm is lower than that of conventional techniques such as 3-D MUSIC by several orders of magnitude. We also derive the Cramer-Rao Bound (CRB) for 3-D localization of multiple sources in a range-independent ocean. Simulation results are presented to show that the root-mean-square localization errors of SAGE-USL are close to the corresponding CRBs and significantly lower than those of 3-D MUSIC. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NESTED SPARSE BAYESIAN LEARNING FOR BLOCK-SPARSE SIGNALS WITH INTRA-BLOCK CORRELATION

In this work, we address the recovery of block sparse vectors with intra-block correlation, i.e., the recovery of vectors in which the correlated nonzero entries are constrained to lie in a few clusters, from noisy underdetermined linear measurements. Among Bayesian sparse recovery techniques, the cluster Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) is an efficient tool for block-sparse vector recovery, with intra-block correlation. However, this technique uses a heuristic method to estimate the intra-block correlation. In this paper, we propose the Nested SBL (NSBL) algorithm, which we derive using a novel Bayesian formulation that facilitates the use of the monotonically convergent nested Expectation Maximization (EM) and a Kalman filtering based learning framework. Unlike the cluster-SBL algorithm, this formulation leads to closed-form EMupdates for estimating the correlation coefficient. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed NSBL algorithm using Monte Carlo simulations.

Effect of measurement noise on Granger causality

Most of the signals recorded in experiments are inevitably contaminated by measurement noise. Hence, it is important to understand the effect of such noise on estimating causal relations between such signals. A primary tool for estimating causality is Granger causality. Granger causality can be computed by modeling the signal using a bivariate autoregressive (AR) process. In this paper, we greatly extend the previous analysis of the effect of noise by considering a bivariate AR process of general order p. From this analysis, we analytically obtain the dependence of Granger causality on various noise-dependent system parameters. In particular, we show that measurement noise can lead to spurious Granger causality and can suppress true Granger causality. These results are verified numerically. Finally, we show how true causality can be recovered numerically using the Kalman expectation maximization algorithm.

Maximum likelihood analysis of multi-stress accelerated life test data of series systems with competing log-normal causes of failure

This article presents frequentist inference of accelerated life test data of series systems with independent log-normal component lifetimes. The means of the component log-lifetimes are assumed to depend on the stress variables through a linear stress translation function that can accommodate the standard stress translation functions in the literature. An expectation-maximization algorithm is developed to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates are then further refined by bootstrap, which is also used to infer about the component and system reliability metrics at usage stresses. The developed methodology is illustrated by analyzing a real as well as a simulated dataset. A simulation study is also carried out to judge the effectiveness of the bootstrap. It is found that in this model, application of bootstrap results in significant improvement over the simple maximum likelihood estimates.

Entropy maximization

It is shown that (i) every probability density is the unique maximizer of relative entropy in an appropriate class and (ii) in the class of all pdf f that satisfy ae fh (i) d mu = lambda (i) for i = 1, 2, ...,... kthe maximizer of entropy is an f (0) that is proportional to exp(I c pound (i) h (i) ) for some choice of c (i) . An extension of this to a continuum of constraints and many examples are presented.

Power Management and Data Rate Maximization in Wireless Energy Harvesting Sensors

This paper considers the problem of power management and throughput maximization for energy neutral operation when using Energy Harvesting Sensors (EHS) to send data over wireless links. It is assumed that the EHS are designed to transmit data at a constant rate (using a fixed modulation and coding scheme) but are power-controlled. A framework under which the system designer can optimize the performance of EHS when the channel is Rayleigh fading is developed. For example, the highest average data rate that can be supported over a Rayleigh fading channel given the energy harvesting capability, the battery power storage efficiency and the maximum allowed transmit energy per slot is derived. Furthermore, the optimum transmission scheme that guarantees a particular data throughput is derived. The usefulness of the framework developed is illustrated through simulation results for specific examples.

Profile-Based Load Scheduling in Wireless Energy Harvesting Sensors for Data Rate Maximization

In this paper, power management algorithms for energy harvesting sensors (EHS) that operate purely based on energy harvested from the environment are proposed. To maintain energy neutrality, EHS nodes schedule their utilization of the harvested power so as to save/draw energy into/from an inefficient battery during peak/low energy harvesting periods, respectively. Under this constraint, one of the key system design goals is to transmit as much data as possible given the energy harvesting profile. For implementational simplicity, it is assumed that the EHS transmits at a constant data rate with power control, when the channel is sufficiently good. By converting the data rate maximization problem into a convex optimization problem, the optimal load scheduling (power management) algorithm that maximizes the average data rate subject to energy neutrality is derived. Also, the energy storage requirements on the battery for implementing the proposed algorithm are calculated. Further, robust schemes that account for the insufficiency of battery storage capacity, or errors in the prediction of the harvested power are proposed. The superior performance of the proposed algorithms over conventional scheduling schemes are demonstrated through computations using numerical data from solar energy harvesting databases.

Throughput Maximization of Delay-Constrained Traffic in Wireless Energy Harvesting Sensors

A wireless Energy Harvesting Sensor (EHS) needs to send data packets arriving in its queue over a fading channel at maximum possible throughput while ensuring acceptable packet delays. At the same time, it needs to ensure that energy neutrality is satisfied, i.e., the average energy drawn from a battery should equal the amount of energy deposited in it minus the energy lost due to the inefficiency of the battery. In this work, a framework is developed under which a system designer can optimize the performance of the EHS node using power control based on the current channel state information, when the EHS node employs a single modulation and coding scheme and the channel is Rayleigh fading. Optimal system parameters for throughput optimal, delay optimal and delay-constrained throughput optimal policies that ensure energy neutrality are derived. It is seen that a throughput optimal (maximal) policy is packet delay-unbounded and an average delay optimal (minimal) policy achieves negligibly small throughput. Finally, the influence of the harvested energy profile on the performance of the EHS is illustrated through the example of solar energy harvesting.