On the DC Conductivity of HV DC Cable Insulation - Cautions in using the Empirical Models

The electrical conduction in insulating materials is a complex process and several theories have been suggested in the literature. Many phenomenological empirical models are in use in the DC cable literature. However, the impact of using different models for cable insulation has not been investigated until now, but for the claims of relative accuracy. The steady state electric field in the DC cable insulation is known to be a strong function of DC conductivity. The DC conductivity, in turn, is a complex function of electric field and temperature. As a result, under certain conditions, the stress at cable screen is higher than that at the conductor boundary. The paper presents detailed investigations on using different empirical conductivity models suggested in the literature for HV DC cable applications. It has been expressly shown that certain models give rise to erroneous results in electric field and temperature computations. It is pointed out that the use of these models in the design or evaluation of cables will lead to errors.

Microarchitecture sensitive empirical models for compiler optimizations.

This paper proposes the use of empirical modeling techniques for building microarchitecture sensitive models for compiler optimizations. The models we build relate program performance to settings of compiler optimization flags, associated heuristics and key microarchitectural parameters. Unlike traditional analytical modeling methods, this relationship is learned entirely from data obtained by measuring performance at a small number of carefully selected compiler/microarchitecture configurations. We evaluate three different learning techniques in this context viz. linear regression, adaptive regression splines and radial basis function networks. We use the generated models to a) predict program performance at arbitrary compiler/microarchitecture configurations, b) quantify the significance of complex interactions between optimizations and the microarchitecture, and c) efficiently search for'optimal' settings of optimization flags and heuristics for any given microarchitectural configuration. Our evaluation using benchmarks from the SPEC CPU2000 suits suggests that accurate models (< 5% average error in prediction) can be generated using a reasonable number of simulations. We also find that using compiler settings prescribed by a model-based search can improve program performance by as much as 19% (with an average of 9.5%) over highly optimized binaries.

Semi empirical models for selectivity of supercritical carbon dioxide for solid mixtures

Selectivity of the particular solvent to separate a mixture is essential for the optimal design of a separation process. Supercritical carbon dioxide (SCCO2) is widely used as a solvent in the extraction, purification and separation of specialty chemicals. The effect of the temperature and pressure on selectivity is complicated and varies from system to system. The effect of temperature and pressure on selectivity of SCCO2 for different solid mixtures available in literature was analyzed. In this work, we have developed two model equations to correlate the selectivity in terms of temperature and pressure. The model equations have correlated the selectivity of SCCO2 satisfactorily for 18 solid mixtures with an average absolute relative deviation (AARD) of around 5%. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Semi-empirical procedures for estimation of residual velocity and ballistic limit for impact on mild steel plates by projectiles

This paper deals with the development of simplified semi-empirical relations for the prediction of residual velocities of small calibre projectiles impacting on mild steel target plates, normally or at an angle, and the ballistic limits for such plates. It has been shown, for several impact cases for which test results on perforation of mild steel plates are available, that most of the existing semi-empirical relations which are applicable only to normal projectile impact do not yield satisfactory estimations of residual velocity. Furthermore, it is difficult to quantify some of the empirical parameters present in these relations for a given problem. With an eye towards simplicity and ease of use, two new regression-based relations employing standard material parameters have been discussed here for predicting residual velocity and ballistic limit for both normal and oblique impact. The latter expressions differ in terms of usage of quasi-static or strain rate-dependent average plate material strength. Residual velocities yielded by the present semi-empirical models compare well with the experimental results. Additionally, ballistic limits from these relations show close correlation with the corresponding finite element-based predictions.

Fatigue Laws Via Functional Equations

In routine industrial design, fatigue life estimation is largely based on S-N curves and ad hoc cycle counting algorithms used with Miner's rule for predicting life under complex loading. However, there are well known deficiencies of the conventional approach. Of the many cumulative damage rules that have been proposed, Manson's Double Linear Damage Rule (DLDR) has been the most successful. Here we follow up, through comparisons with experimental data from many sources, on a new approach to empirical fatigue life estimation (A Constructive Empirical Theory for Metal Fatigue Under Block Cyclic Loading', Proceedings of the Royal Society A, in press). The basic modeling approach is first described: it depends on enforcing mathematical consistency between predictions of simple empirical models that include indeterminate functional forms, and published fatigue data from handbooks. This consistency is enforced through setting up and (with luck) solving a functional equation with three independent variables and six unknown functions. The model, after eliminating or identifying various parameters, retains three fitted parameters; for the experimental data available, one of these may be set to zero. On comparison against data from several different sources, with two fitted parameters, we find that our model works about as well as the DLDR and much better than Miner's rule. We finally discuss some ways in which the model might be used, beyond the scope of the DLDR.

Contribution of sea-salt to aerosol optical depth over the Arabian Sea derived from MODIS observations

Making use of aerosol optical depths (AOD) derived from MODIS (onboard TERRA satellite) and winds from NCEP, and the fact that sea-salt optical depth over ocean is determined primarily by sea-surface wind speed, we examine the contribution of sea-salt to the composite aerosol optical depth ( AOD) over Arabian Sea ( AS), by developing empirical models for characterizing wind-speed dependence of sea-salt optical depth. We show that at high wind speeds, sea-salt contributes 81% to the coarse mode and 42% to the composite AOD in the southern AS. In contrast to this, over the northern AS, share of sea-salt to coarse mode and composite optical depth is only 35% and 16% respectively. Comparison of the sea-salt optical depth and coarse mode optical depth ( MODIS) showed excellent agreement. The sea-salt optical depth over AS at moderate to high wind speed is comparable to the anthropogenic AOD reported for this region during winter.

Evolution of Nanocrystalline Ba2NaNb5O15 in 2BaO-0.5Na(2)O-2.5Nb(2)O(5)-4.5B(2)O(3) Glass System and Its Refractive Index and Band Gap Tunability

Monophasic Ba2NaNb5O15 was crystallized at nanometer scale (12-36 nm) in 2BaO-0.5Na(2)O-2.5Nb(2)O(5)- 4.5B(2)O(3) glass system. To begin with, optically transparent glasses, in this system, were fabricated via the conventional melt. quenching technique. The amorphous and glassy characteristics of the as-quenched samples were respectively confirmed by X-ray powder diffraction and differential thermal analyses. Nearly homogeneous distribution of Ba2NaNb5O15 (BNN) nanocrystals associated with tungsten bronze structure akin to their bulk parent structure was accomplished by subjecting the as-fabricated glasses to appropriate heat-treatment temperatures. Indeed transmission electron microscopy (TEM) carried out on these samples corroborated the presence of Ba2NaNb5O15 nanocrystals dispersed in a continuous glass matrix. The as-quenched glasses were similar to 75% transparent in the visible range of the electromagnetic spectrum. The optical band gap and refractive index were found to have crystallite size (at nanoscale) dependence. The optical band gap increased with the decrease in crystallite size. The refractive indices of the glass nanocrystal composites as determined by Brewster angle method were rationalized using different empirical models. The refractive index dispersion with wavelength of light was analyzed on the basis of the Sellmeier relations. At room temperature under UV excitation (355 nm) these glass nanocrystal composites displayed violet-blue emission which was ascribed to the defects states.

Dry sliding wear of epoxy/cenosphere syntactic foams

Dry sliding wear behavior of epoxy matrix syntactic foams filled with 20, 40 and 60 wt% fly ash cenosphere is reported based on response surface methodology. Empirical models are constructed and validated based on analysis of variance. Results show that syntactic foams have higher wear resistance than the matrix resin. Among the parameters studied, the applied normal load (F) had a prominent effect on wear rate, specific wear rate (w(s)) and coefficient of friction (mu). With increasing F, the wear rate increased, whereas ws and mu decreased. With increase in filler content, the wear rate and w(s) decreased, while the mu increased. With increase in sliding velocity as well as sliding distance, the wear rate and ws show decreasing trends. Microscopy revealed broken cenospheres forming debris and extensive deformation marks on the wear surface. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electrochemical phase formation (ECPF) and macrogrowth Part II. Two-rate models

A general theory is evolved for a class of macrogrowth models which possess two independent growth-rates. Relations connecting growth-rates to growth geometry are established and some new growth forms are shown to result for models with passivation or diffusion-controlled rates. The corresponding potentiostatic responses, their small and large time behaviours and peak characteristics are obtained. Numerical transients are also presented. An empirical equation is derived as a special case and an earlier equation is corrected. An interesting stochastic result pertaining to nucleation events in the successive layers is proved.

Deformation and stability regression models for soil nail walls

Lateral displacement and global stability are the two main stability criteria for soil nail walls. Conventional design methods do not adequately address the deformation behaviour of soil nail walls, owing to the complexity involved in handling a large number of influencing factors. Consequently, limited methods of deformation estimates based on empirical relationships and in situ performance monitoring are available in the literature. It is therefore desirable that numerical techniques and statistical methods are used in order to gain a better insight into the deformation behaviour of soil nail walls. In the present study numerical experiments are conducted using a 2 4 factorial design method. Based on analysis of the maximum lateral deformation and factor-of-safety observations from the numerical experiments, regression models for maximum lateral deformation and factor-of-safety prediction are developed and checked for adequacy. Selection of suitable design factors for the 2 4 factorial design of numerical experiments enabled the use of the proposed regression models over a practical range of soil nail wall heights and in situ soil variability. It is evident from the model adequacy analyses and illustrative example that the proposed regression models provided a reasonably good estimate of the lateral deformation and global factor of safety of the soil nail walls.

New empirical expressions to correlate solubilities of solids in supercritical carbon dioxide

Supercritical processes are gaining importance in the last few years in the food, environmental and pharmaceutical product processing. The design of any supercritical process needs accurate experimental data on solubilities of solids in the supercritical fluids (SCFs). The empirical equations are quite successful in correlating the solubilities of solid compounds in SCF both in the presence and absence of cosolvents. In this work, existing solvate complex models are discussed and a new set of empirical equations is proposed. These equations correlate the solubilities of solids in supercritical carbon dioxide (both in the presence and absence of cosolvents) as a function of temperature, density of supercritical carbon dioxide and the mole fraction of cosolvent. The accuracy of the proposed models was evaluated by correlating 15 binary and 18 ternary systems. The proposed models provided the best overall correlations. (C) 2009 Elsevier BA/. All rights reserved.

A new semi-empirical model for correlating the solubilities of solids in supercritical carbon dioxide with cosolvents

The equilibrium solubilities of the solids in supercritical carbon dioxide (SCCO(2)) are considerably enhanced in the presence of cosolvents. The solubilities of m-dinitrobenzene at 308 and 318 K over a pressure range of 9.5-14.5 MPa in the presence of 1.13-2.17 mol% methanol as cosolvent were determined. The average increase in the solubilities in the presence of methanol compared to that obtained in the absence of methanol was around 35%. A new semi-empirical equation in terms of temperature, pressure, density of SCCO(2) and cosolvent composition comprising of 7 adjustable parameters was developed. The proposed model was used to correlate the solubility of the solids in SCCO(2) for the 44 systems available in the literature along with current data. The average absolute relative deviation of the experimental data from the model equation was 3.58%, which is better than the existing models. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing resilience and state-transition models with historical records of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in North American sagebrush-steppe

1. Resilience-based approaches are increasingly being called upon to inform ecosystem management, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This requires management frameworks that can assess ecosystem dynamics, both within and between alternative states, at relevant time scales. 2. We analysed long-term vegetation records from two representative sites in the North American sagebrush-steppe ecosystem, spanning nine decades, to determine if empirical patterns were consistent with resilience theory, and to determine if cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion led to thresholds as currently envisioned by expert-based state-and-transition models (STM). These data span the entire history of cheatgrass invasion at these sites and provide a unique opportunity to assess the impacts of biotic invasion on ecosystem resilience. 3. We used univariate and multivariate statistical tools to identify unique plant communities and document the magnitude, frequency and directionality of community transitions through time. Community transitions were characterized by 37-47% dissimilarity in species composition, they were not evenly distributed through time, their frequency was not correlated with precipitation, and they could not be readily attributed to fire or grazing. Instead, at both sites, the majority of community transitions occurred within an 8-10year period of increasing cheatgrass density, became infrequent after cheatgrass density peaked, and thereafter transition frequency declined. 4. Greater cheatgrass density, replacement of native species and indication of asymmetry in community transitions suggest that thresholds may have been exceeded in response to cheatgrass invasion at one site (more arid), but not at the other site (less arid). Asymmetry in the direction of community transitions also identified communities that were at-risk' of cheatgrass invasion, as well as potential restoration pathways for recovery of pre-invasion states. 5. Synthesis and applications. These results illustrate the complexities associated with threshold identification, and indicate that criteria describing the frequency, magnitude, directionality and temporal scale of community transitions may provide greater insight into resilience theory and its application for ecosystem management. These criteria are likely to vary across biogeographic regions that are susceptible to cheatgrass invasion, and necessitate more in-depth assessments of thresholds and alternative states, than currently available.

Predictability of nonstationary time series using wavelet and EMD based ARMA models

Research has been undertaken to ascertain the predictability of non-stationary time series using wavelet and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) based time series models. Methods have been developed in the past to decompose a time series into components. Forecasting of these components combined with random component could yield predictions. Using this ideology, wavelet and EMD analyses have been incorporated separately which decomposes a time series into independent orthogonal components with both time and frequency localizations. The component series are fit with specific auto-regressive models to obtain forecasts which are later combined to obtain the actual predictions. Four non-stationary streamflow sites (USGS data resources) of monthly total volumes and two non-stationary gridded rainfall sites (IMD) of monthly total rainfall are considered for the study. The predictability is checked for six and twelve months ahead forecasts across both the methodologies. Based on performance measures, it is observed that wavelet based method has better prediction capabilities over EMD based method despite some of the limitations of time series methods and the manner in which decomposition takes place. Finally, the study concludes that the wavelet based time series algorithm can be used to model events such as droughts with reasonable accuracy. Also, some modifications that can be made in the model have been discussed that could extend the scope of applicability to other areas in the field of hydrology. (C) 2013 Elesvier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species

Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.