Technological-forecasting and research inputs in area of birth-control technology

Technological forecasting, defined as quantified probabilistic prediction of timings and degree of change in the technological parameters, capabilities desirability or needs at different times in the future, is applied to birth control technology (BCT) as a means of revealing the paths of most promising research through identifying the necessary points for breakthroughs. The present status of BCT in the areas of pills and the IUD, male contraceptives, immumological approaches, post-coital pills, abortion, sterilization, luteolytic agents, laser technologies, and control of the sex of the child, are each summarized and evaluated in turn. Fine mapping is done to identify the most potentially promising areas of BCT. These include efforts to make oral contraception easier, improvement of the design of the IUD, clinical evaluation of the male contraceptive danazol, the effecting of biochemical changes in the seminal fluid, and researching of immunological approaches and the effects of other new drugs such as prostaglandins. The areas that require immediate and large research inputs are oral contraception and the IUD. On the basis of population and technological forecasts, it is deduced that research efforts could most effectively aid countries like India through the immediate production of an oral contraceptive pill or IUD with long-lasting effects. Development of a pill for males or an immunization against pre gnancy would also have a significant impact. However, the major impediment to birth control programs to date is attitudes, which must be changed through education.

Sustainable bioenergy for India: Technical, economic and policy analysis

India's energy challenges are multi-pronged. They are manifested through growing demand for modern energy carriers, a fossil fuel dominated energy system facing a severe resource crunch, the need for creating access to quality energy for the large section of deprived population, vulnerable energy security, local and global pollution regimes and the need for sustaining economic development. Renewable energy is considered as one of the most promising alternatives. Recognizing this potential, India has been implementing one of the largest renewable energy programmes in the world. Among the renewable energy technologies. bioenergy has a large diverse portfolio including efficient biomass stoves, biogas, biomass combustion and gasification and process heat and liquid fuels. India has also formulated and implemented a number of innovative policies and programmes to promote bioenergy technologies. However, according to some preliminary studies, the success rate is marginal compared to the potential available. This limited success is a clear indicator of the need for a serious reassessment of the bioenergy programme. Further, a realization of the need for adopting a sustainable energy path to address the above challenges will be the guiding force in this reassessment. In this paper an attempt is made to consider the potential of bioenergy to meet the rural energy needs: (I) biomass combustion and gasification for electricity; (2) biomethanation for cooking energy (gas) and electricity; and (3) efficient wood-burning devices for cooking. The paper focuses on analysing the effectiveness of bioenergy in creating this rural energy access and its sustainability in the long run through assessing: the demand for bioenergy and potential that could be created; technologies, status of commercialization and technology transfer and dissemination in India; economic and environmental performance and impacts: bioenergy policies, regulatory measures and barrier analysis. The whole assessment aims at presenting bioenergy as an integral part of a sustainable energy strategy for India. The results show that bioenergy technology (BET) alternatives compare favourably with the conventional ones. The cost comparisons show that the unit costs of BET alternatives are in the range of 15-187% of the conventional alternatives. The climate change benefits in terms of carbon emission reductions are to the tune of 110 T C per year provided the available potential of BETs are utilized.

A Spatial Planning Support System for Managing Bangalore's Urban Sprawl

Urban sprawl is the outgrowth along the periphery of cities and along highways. Although an accurate definition of urban sprawl may be debated, a consensus is that urban sprawl is characterized by an unplanned and uneven pattern of growth, driven by multitude of processes and leading to inefficient resource utilization. Urbanization in India has never been as rapid as it is in recent times. As one of the fastest growing economies in the world, India faces stiff challenges in managing the urban sprawl, while ensuring effective delivery of basic services in urban areas. The urban areas contribute significantly to the national economy (more than 50% of GDP), while facing critical challenges in accessing basic services and necessary infrastructure, both social and economic. The overall rise in the population of the urban poor or the increase in travel times due to congestion along road networks are indicators of the effectiveness of planning and governance in assessing and catering for this demand. Agencies of governance at all levels: local bodies, state government and federal government, are facing the brunt of this rapid urban growth. It is imperative for planning and governance to facilitate, augment and service the requisite infrastructure over time systematically. Provision of infrastructure and assurance of the delivery of basic services cannot happen overnight and hence planning has to facilitate forecasting and service provision with appropriate financial mechanisms.

Universalization of access to modern energy services in Indian households-Economic and policy analysis

Provision of modern energy services for cooking (with gaseous fuels)and lighting (with electricity) is an essential component of any policy aiming to address health, education or welfare issues; yet it gets little attention from policy-makers. Secure, adequate, low-cost energy of quality and convenience is core to the delivery of these services. The present study analyses the energy consumption pattern of Indian domestic sector and examines the urban-rural divide and income energy linkage. A comprehensive analysis is done to estimate the cost for providing modern energy services to everyone by 2030. A public-private partnership-driven business model, with entrepreneurship at the core, is developed with institutional, financing and pricing mechanisms for diffusion of energy services. This approach, termed as EMPOWERS (entrepreneurship model for provision of wholesome energy-related basic services), if adopted, can facilitate large-scale dissemination of energy-efficient and renewable technologies like small-scale biogas/biofuel plants, and distributed power generation technologies to provide clean, safe, reliable and sustainable energy to rural households and urban poor. It is expected to integrate the processes of market transformation and entrepreneurship development involving government, NGOs, financial institutions and community groups as stakeholders. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do inventory management practices affect economic performance? An empirical evaluation of the machine tool SMEs in Bangalore

Inventory management (IM) has a decisive role in the enhancement of manufacturing industry's competitiveness. Therefore, major manufacturing industries are following IM practices with the intention of improving their performance. However, the effort to introduce IM in SMEs is very limited due to lack of initiation, expertise, and financial constraints. This paper aims to provide a guideline for entrepreneurs in enhancing their IM performance, as it presents the results of a survey based study carried out for machine tool Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Bangalore. Having established the significance of inventory as an input, we probed the relationship between IM performance and economic performance of these SMEs. To the extent possible all the factors of production and performance indicators were deliberately considered in pure economic terms. All economic performance indicators adopted seem to have a positive and significant association with IM performance in SMEs. On the whole, we found that SMEs which are IM efficient are likely to perform better on the economic front also and experience higher returns to scale.

Influence of subcontracting on innovation and economic performance of SMEs in Indian automobile industry

Trans-national corporations (TNCs) expanding their production bases to developing countries having better conditions of manufacturing and domestic markets provide increasing opportunities for local small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to have subcontracting relationships with these TNCs Even though some theoretical and a few empirical studies throw light on the nature of assistance provided by TNCs to local SMEs through subcontracting relationships none of the studies so far quantitatively analysed the role of this assistance on the innovative performance of SMEs leading to better economic performance This paper probes the extent and diversity of assistance received by SMEs from a TNC through subcontracting and its influence on technological innovations and economic performance of SMEs in the Indian automobile industry Indian SMEs were able to receive mainly product related and purchase process assistance thereby implying that subcontracting is largely confined to purchase-supply relationships However assistance received through subcontracting is beneficial as It promoted technological innovations of SMEs the higher the degree of assistance the higher the level of innovations carried out by these SMEs which in turn facilitated their economic performance Thus this paper substantiates in the Indian context that subcontracting relationship with a TNC can be an important source of technological innovations and enhanced economic performance for SMEs (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough

: We illustrate how climatological information about adverse weather events and meteorological forecasts (when available) can be used to decide between alternative strategies so as to maximize the long-term average returns for rainfed groundnut in semi-arid parts of Karnataka, We show that until the skill of the forecast, i.e. probability of an adverse event occurring when it is forecast, is above a certain threshold, the forecast has no impact on the optimum strategy, This threshold is determined by the loss in yield due to the adverse weather event and the cost of the mitigatory measures, For the specific case of groundnut, it is found that while for combating some pests/diseases, climatological information is adequate, for others a forecast of sufficient skill would have a significant impact on the productivity.

Macro-economic analysis of forestry options on carbon sequestration in India

The forestry sector provides a number of climate change mitigation options. Apart from this ecological benefit, it has significant social and economic relevance. Implementation of forestry options requires large investments and sustained long-term planning. Thus there is a need for a detailed analysis of forestry options to understand their implications on stock and flow of carbon, required investments, value of forest wealth, contribution to GNP and livelihood, demand management, employment and foreign trade. There is a need to evaluate the additional spending on forestry by analysing the environmental (particularly carbon abatement), social and economic benefits. The biomass needs for India are expected to increase by two to three times by 2020. Depending upon the forest types, ownership patterns and land use patterns, feasible forestry options are identified. It is found among many supply options to be feasible to meet the 'demand based needs' with a mix of management options, species choices and organisational set up. A comparative static framework is used to analyze the macro-economic impacts. Forestry accounts for 1.84% of GNP in India. It is characterized by significant forward industrial linkages and least backward linkage. Forestry generates about 36 million person years of employment annually. India imports Rs. 15 billion worth of forest based materials annually. Implementation of the demand based forestry options can lead to a number of ecological, economic and institutional changes. The notable ones are: enhancement of C stock from 9578 to 17 094 Mt and a net annual C-sequestration from 73 to 149 Mt after accounting for all emissions; a trebling of the output of forestry sector from Rs. 49 billion to Rs. 146 billion annually; an increase in GDP contribution of forestry from Rs. 32 billion to Rs. 105 billion over a period of 35 years; an increase in annual employment level by 23 million person years, emergence of forestry as a net contributor of foreign exchange through trading of forestry products; and an increase in economic value of forest capital stock by Rs. 7260 billion with a cost benefit analysis showing forestry as a profitable option. Implementation of forestry options calls for an understanding of current forest policies and barriers which are analyzed and a number of policy options are suggested. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.