Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

Spatio-temporal landscape modelling for natural hazard vulnerability analysis in select watersheds of Central Western Ghats

Natural hazards such as landslides are triggered by numerous factors such as ground movements, rock falls, slope failure, debris flows, slope instability, etc. Changes in slope stability happen due to human intervention, anthropogenic activities, change in soil structure, loss or absence of vegetation (changes in land cover), etc. Loss of vegetation happens when the forest is fragmented due to anthropogenic activities. Hence land cover mapping with forest fragmentation can provide vital information for visualising the regions that require immediate attention from slope stability aspects. The main objective of this paper is to understand the rate of change in forest landscape from 1973 to 2004 through multi-sensor remote sensing data analysis. The forest fragmentation index presented here is based on temporal land use information and forest fragmentation model, in which the forest pixels are classified as patch, transitional, edge, perforated, and interior, that give a measure of forest continuity. The analysis carried out for five prominent watersheds of Uttara Kannada district– Aganashini, Bedthi, Kali, Sharavathi and Venkatpura revealed that interior forest is continuously decreasing while patch, transitional, edge and perforated forest show increasing trend. The effect of forest fragmentation on landslide occurrence was visualised by overlaying the landslide occurrence points on classified image and forest fragmentation map. The increasing patch and transitional forest on hill slopes are the areas prone to landslides, evident from the field verification, indicating that deforestation is a major triggering factor for landslides. This emphasises the need for immediate conservation measures for sustainable management of the landscape. Quantifying and describing land use - land cover change and fragmentation is crucial for assessing the effect of land management policies and environmental protection decisions.

Modelling the effects of chorus species composition and caller density on acoustic masking interference in multispecies choruses of crickets and katydids

Natural multispecies acoustic choruses such as the dusk chorus of a tropical rain forest consist of simultaneously signalling individuals of different species whose calls travel through a common shared medium before reaching their `intended' receivers. This causes masking interference between signals and impedes signal detection, recognition and localization. The levels of acoustic overlap depend on a number of factors, including call structure, intensity, habitat-dependent signal attenuation and receiver tuning. In addition, acoustic overlaps should also depend on caller density and the species composition of choruses, including relative and absolute abundance of the different calling species. In this study, we used simulations to examine the effects of chorus species relative abundance and caller density on the levels of effective heterospecific acoustic overlap in multispecies choruses composed of the calls of five species of crickets and katydids that share the understorey of a rain forest in southern India. We found that on average species-even choruses resulted in higher levels of effective heterospecific acoustic overlap than choruses with strong dominance structures. This effect was found consistently across dominance levels ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 for larger choruses of forty individuals. For smaller choruses of twenty individuals, the effect was seen consistently for dominance levels of 0.6 and 0.8 but not 0.4. Effective acoustic overlap (EAO) increased with caller density but the manner and extent of increase depended both on the species' call structure and the acoustic context provided by the composition scenario. The Phaloria sp. experienced very low levels of EAO and was highly buffered to changes in acoustic context whereas other species experienced high FAO across contexts or were poorly buffered. These differences were not simply predictable from call structures. These simulation-based findings may have important implications for acoustic biodiversity monitoring and for the study of acoustic masking interference in natural environments. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social insect colony as a biological regulatory system: modelling information flow in dominance networks

Social insects provide an excellent platform to investigate flow of information in regulatory systems since their successful social organization is essentially achieved by effective information transfer through complex connectivity patterns among the colony members. Network representation of such behavioural interactions offers a powerful tool for structural as well as dynamical analysis of the underlying regulatory systems. In this paper, we focus on the dominance interaction networks in the tropical social wasp Ropalidia marginata-a species where behavioural observations indicate that such interactions are principally responsible for the transfer of information between individuals about their colony needs, resulting in a regulation of their own activities. Our research reveals that the dominance networks of R. marginata are structurally similar to a class of naturally evolved information processing networks, a fact confirmed also by the predominance of a specific substructure-the `feed-forward loop'-a key functional component in many other information transfer networks. The dynamical analysis through Boolean modelling confirms that the networks are sufficiently stable under small fluctuations and yet capable of more efficient information transfer compared to their randomized counterparts. Our results suggest the involvement of a common structural design principle in different biological regulatory systems and a possible similarity with respect to the effect of selection on the organization levels of such systems. The findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that dominance behaviour has been shaped by natural selection to co-opt the information transfer process in such social insect species, in addition to its primal function of mediation of reproductive competition in the colony.

Identifying regions for conservation of sloth bears through occupancy modelling in north-eastern Karnataka, India

In the absence of information on species in decline with contracting ranges, management should emphasize remaining populations and protection of their habitats. Threatened by anthropogenic pressure including habitat degradation and loss, sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) in India have become limited in range, habitat, and population size. We identified ecological and anthropogenic determinants of occurrence within an occupancy framework to evaluate habitat suitability of non-protected regions (with sloth bears) in northeastern Karnataka, India. We employed a systematic sampling methodology to yield presence absence data to examine a priori hypotheses of determinants that affected occupancy. These covariates were broadly classified as habitat or anthropogenic factors. Mean number of termite mounds and trees positively influenced sloth bear occupancy, and grazing pressure expounded by mean number of livestock dung affected it negatively. Also, mean percentage of shrub coverage had no impact on bear inhabitance. The best fitting model further predicted habitats in Bukkasagara, Agoli, and Benakal reserved forests to have 38%, 75%, and 88%, respectively, of their sampled grid cells with high occupancies (>0.70) albeit little or no legal protection. We recommend a conservation strategy that includes protection of vegetation stand-structure, maintenance of soil moisture, and enrichment of habitat for the long-term welfare of this species.

Climate change and forests in India

Forests play a critical role in addressing climate change concerns in the broader context of global change and sustainable development. Forests are linked to climate change in three ways. i) Forests are a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: ii) Forests offer mitigation opportunities to stabilise GHG concentrations: iii) Forests are impacted by climate change. This paper reviews studies related to climate change and forests in India: first, the studies estimating carbon inventory for the Indian land use change and forestry sector (LUCF), then the different models and mitigation potential estimates for the LUCF sector in India. Finally it reviews the studies on the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in India, identifying the implications for net primary productivity and bio-diversity. The paper highlights data, modelling and research gaps relevant to the GHG inventory, mitigation potential and vulnerability and impact assessments for the forest sector in India.

Fuzzy Logic-Based Approaches in Water Resource System Modelling

Recent research in modelling uncertainty in water resource systems has highlighted the use of fuzzy logic-based approaches. A number of research contributions exist in the literature that deal with uncertainty in water resource systems including fuzziness, subjectivity, imprecision and lack of adequate data. This chapter presents a broad overview of the fuzzy logic-based approaches adopted in addressing uncertainty in water resource systems modelling. Applications of fuzzy rule-based systems and fuzzy optimisation are then discussed. Perspectives on the scope for further research are presented.

Cultural-Evolution of Ecological Prudence

Animals often behave in a profligate fashion and decimate the populations of plants and animals they depend upon. They may, however, evolve prudent behaviour under special conditions, namely when such prudence greatly enhances the success of populations that are not too prone to invasions by profligate individuals. Cultural evolution in human societies can also lead to the adoption of prudent practices under similar conditions. These are more likely to be realized in stable environments in which the human populations tend to grow close to the carrying capacity, when the human groups are closed, and when the technology is stagnant. These conditions probably prevailed in the hunter—gatherer societies of the tropics and subtropics, and led to the adoption of a number of socially imposed restraints on the use of plant and animal resources. Such practices were rationalized in the form of Nature-worship. The Indian caste society became so organized as to fulfill these conditions, and gave rise to two religions, Buddhism and Jainism, which emphasize compassion towards all forms of life. The pastoral nomads of the middle east, on the other hand, lived in an environment which militated against prudence, and these societies gave rise to religions like Christianity, which declared war on nature. As the ruling elite and state have grown in power, they have tried to wrest control of natural resources from the local communities. This has sometimes resulted in conservation and prudent use under guidance from the state, but has often led to conflicts with local populations to the detriment of prudent behaviour. Modern technological progress has also often removed the need for conservation, as when availability of coal permitted the deforestation of England. While modern scientific understanding has led to a better appreciation of the need for prudence, the prevailing social and economic conditions often militate against any implementation of the understanding, as is seen from the history of whaling. However, the imperative for survival of the poor from the Third-World countries may finally bring about conditions in which ecological prudence may once again come to dominate human cultures as it might once have done with stable societies of hunter—gatherers.

Performance modelling of a fault-tolerant real-time multiprocessor using stochastic Petri nets

The fault-tolerant multiprocessor (ftmp) is a bus-based multiprocessor architecture with real-time and fault- tolerance features and is used in critical aerospace applications. A preliminary performance evaluation is of crucial importance in the design of such systems. In this paper, we review stochastic Petri nets (spn) and developspn-based performance models forftmp. These performance models enable efficient computation of important performance measures such as processing power, bus contention, bus utilization, and waiting times.

Influence of time step in the simulation modelling of evapotranspiration

Three simulations of evapotranspiration were done with two values of time step,viz 10 min and one day. Inputs to the model were weather data, including directly measured upward and downward radiation, and soil characteristics. Three soils were used for each simulation. Analysis of the results shows that the time step has a direct influence on the prediction of potential evapotranspiration, but a complex interaction of this effect with the soil moisture characteristic, rate of increase of ground cover and bare soil evaporation determines the actual transpiration predicted. The results indicate that as small a time step as possible should be used in the simulation.

Adaptive significance of the Indian caste system: an ecological perspective

Indian society is an agglomeration of several thousand endogamous groups or castes each with a restricted geographical range and a hereditarily determine mode of subsistence. These reproductively isolated castes may be compared to biological species, and the society thought of as a biological community with each caste having its specific ecological niche. In this paper we examine the ecological-niche relationships of castes which are directly dependent on natural resources. Evidence is presented to show that castes living together in the same region had so organized their pattern of resource use as to avoid excessive intercaste competition for limiting resources. Furthermore, territorial division of the total range of the caste regulated intra-caste competition. Hence, a particular plant or animal resource in a given locality was used almost exclusively by a given lineage within a caste generation after generation. This favoured the cultural evolution of traditions ensuring sustainable use of natural resources. This must have contributed significantly to the stability of Indian caste society over several thousand years. The collapse of the base of natural resources and increasing monetarization of the economy has, however, destroyed the earlier complementarity between the different castes and led to increasing conflicts between them in recent years.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds-A hierarchy in modelling: Part II

A two-state model allowing for size disparity between the solvent and the adsorbate is analysed to derive the adsorption isotherm for electrosorption of organic compounds. Explicity, the organic adsorbate is assumed to occupy "n" lattice sites at the interface as compared to "one" by the solvent. The model parameters are the respective permanent and induced dipole moments apart from the nearest neighbour distance. The coulombic interactions due to permanent and induced dipole moments, discreteness of charge effects, and short-range and specific substrate interactions have all been incorporated. The adsorption isotherm is then derived using mean field approximation (MFA) and is found to be more general than the earlier multi-site versions of Bockris and Swinkels, Mohilner et al., and Bennes, as far as the entropy contributions are concerned. The role of electrostatic forces is explicity reflected in the adsorption isotherm via the Gibbs energy of adsorption term which itself is a quadratic function of the electrode charge-density. The approximation implicit in the adsorption isotherm of Mohilner et al. or Bennes is indicated briefly.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds-A hierarchy in modelling: Part III

A simple three-state model permitting two different configurational states for the solvent, together with one for the organic adsorbate, is analysed to derive the adsorption isotherm. The implications of this model regarding pseudo-two-state and pseudo-Frumkin adsorption isotherms are indicated. A critique of the earlier theory of Bockris, Devanathan and Müller is presented in brief.

Adsorption isitherms for neutral organic compounds-A hierarchy in modelling: Part IV. Charge of maximum adsorption-Statistical mechanical basis

The charge at which adsorption of orgamc compounds attains a maximum ( \sigma MAX M) at an electrochenucal interface is analysed using several multi-state models in a hierarchical manner The analysis is based on statistical mechamcal results for the following models (A) two-state site parity, (B) two-state muhl-slte, and (C) three-state site parity The coulombic interactions due to permanent and reduced dipole effects (using mean field approximation), electrostatic field effects and specific substrate interactions have been taken into account. The simplest model in the hierarchy (two-state site parity) yields the exphcit dependence of ( \sigma MAX M) on the permanent dipole moment, polarizability of the solvent and the adsorbate, lattice spacing, effective coordination number, etc Other models in the baerarchy bring to hght the influence of the solvent structure and the role of substrate interactions, etc As a result of this approach, the "composition" of oM.x m terms of the fundamental molecular constants becomes clear. With a view to use these molecular results to maxamum advantage, the derived results for ( \sigma MAX M) have been converted into those involving experimentally observable parameters lake Co, C 1, E N, etc Wherever possible, some of the earlier phenomenologlcal relations reported for ( \sigma MAX M), notably by Parsons, Damaskm and Frumkln, and Trasattl, are shown to have a certain molecular basis, vlz a simple two-state sate panty model.As a corollary to the hxerarcbacal modelling, \sigma MAX M and the potential corresponding to at (Emax) are shown to be constants independent of 0max or Corg for all models The lmphcatlon of our analysis f o r OmMa x with respect to that predicted by the generalized surface layer equation (which postulates Om~ and Ema x varlaUon with 0) is discussed in detail Finally we discuss an passing o M. and the electrosorptlon valency an this context.