Macro-economic analysis of forestry options on carbon sequestration in India

The forestry sector provides a number of climate change mitigation options. Apart from this ecological benefit, it has significant social and economic relevance. Implementation of forestry options requires large investments and sustained long-term planning. Thus there is a need for a detailed analysis of forestry options to understand their implications on stock and flow of carbon, required investments, value of forest wealth, contribution to GNP and livelihood, demand management, employment and foreign trade. There is a need to evaluate the additional spending on forestry by analysing the environmental (particularly carbon abatement), social and economic benefits. The biomass needs for India are expected to increase by two to three times by 2020. Depending upon the forest types, ownership patterns and land use patterns, feasible forestry options are identified. It is found among many supply options to be feasible to meet the 'demand based needs' with a mix of management options, species choices and organisational set up. A comparative static framework is used to analyze the macro-economic impacts. Forestry accounts for 1.84% of GNP in India. It is characterized by significant forward industrial linkages and least backward linkage. Forestry generates about 36 million person years of employment annually. India imports Rs. 15 billion worth of forest based materials annually. Implementation of the demand based forestry options can lead to a number of ecological, economic and institutional changes. The notable ones are: enhancement of C stock from 9578 to 17 094 Mt and a net annual C-sequestration from 73 to 149 Mt after accounting for all emissions; a trebling of the output of forestry sector from Rs. 49 billion to Rs. 146 billion annually; an increase in GDP contribution of forestry from Rs. 32 billion to Rs. 105 billion over a period of 35 years; an increase in annual employment level by 23 million person years, emergence of forestry as a net contributor of foreign exchange through trading of forestry products; and an increase in economic value of forest capital stock by Rs. 7260 billion with a cost benefit analysis showing forestry as a profitable option. Implementation of forestry options calls for an understanding of current forest policies and barriers which are analyzed and a number of policy options are suggested. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Economic tradeoffs in mitigation, due to different atmospheric lifetimes of CO2 and black carbon

Tradeoffs are examined between mitigating black carbon (BC) and carbon dioxide (CO2) for limiting peak global mean warming, using the following set of methods. A two-box climate model is used to simulate temperatures of the atmosphere and ocean for different rates of mitigation. Mitigation rates for BC and CO2 are characterized by respective timescales for e-folding reduction in emissions intensity of gross global product. There are respective emissions models that force the box model. Lastly there is a simple economics model, with cost of mitigation varying inversely with emission intensity. Constant mitigation timescale corresponds to mitigation at a constant annual rate, for example an e-folding timescale of 40 years corresponds to 2.5% reduction each year. Discounted present cost depends only on respective mitigation timescale and respective mitigation cost at present levels of emission intensity. Least-cost mitigation is posed as choosing respective e-folding timescales, to minimize total mitigation cost under a temperature constraint (e.g. within 2 degrees C above preindustrial). Peak warming is more sensitive to mitigation timescale for CO2 than for BC. Therefore rapid mitigation of CO2 emission intensity is essential to limiting peak warming, but simultaneous mitigation of BC can reduce total mitigation expenditure. (c) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cultural-Evolution of Ecological Prudence

Animals often behave in a profligate fashion and decimate the populations of plants and animals they depend upon. They may, however, evolve prudent behaviour under special conditions, namely when such prudence greatly enhances the success of populations that are not too prone to invasions by profligate individuals. Cultural evolution in human societies can also lead to the adoption of prudent practices under similar conditions. These are more likely to be realized in stable environments in which the human populations tend to grow close to the carrying capacity, when the human groups are closed, and when the technology is stagnant. These conditions probably prevailed in the hunter—gatherer societies of the tropics and subtropics, and led to the adoption of a number of socially imposed restraints on the use of plant and animal resources. Such practices were rationalized in the form of Nature-worship. The Indian caste society became so organized as to fulfill these conditions, and gave rise to two religions, Buddhism and Jainism, which emphasize compassion towards all forms of life. The pastoral nomads of the middle east, on the other hand, lived in an environment which militated against prudence, and these societies gave rise to religions like Christianity, which declared war on nature. As the ruling elite and state have grown in power, they have tried to wrest control of natural resources from the local communities. This has sometimes resulted in conservation and prudent use under guidance from the state, but has often led to conflicts with local populations to the detriment of prudent behaviour. Modern technological progress has also often removed the need for conservation, as when availability of coal permitted the deforestation of England. While modern scientific understanding has led to a better appreciation of the need for prudence, the prevailing social and economic conditions often militate against any implementation of the understanding, as is seen from the history of whaling. However, the imperative for survival of the poor from the Third-World countries may finally bring about conditions in which ecological prudence may once again come to dominate human cultures as it might once have done with stable societies of hunter—gatherers.

Adaptive significance of the Indian caste system: an ecological perspective

Indian society is an agglomeration of several thousand endogamous groups or castes each with a restricted geographical range and a hereditarily determine mode of subsistence. These reproductively isolated castes may be compared to biological species, and the society thought of as a biological community with each caste having its specific ecological niche. In this paper we examine the ecological-niche relationships of castes which are directly dependent on natural resources. Evidence is presented to show that castes living together in the same region had so organized their pattern of resource use as to avoid excessive intercaste competition for limiting resources. Furthermore, territorial division of the total range of the caste regulated intra-caste competition. Hence, a particular plant or animal resource in a given locality was used almost exclusively by a given lineage within a caste generation after generation. This favoured the cultural evolution of traditions ensuring sustainable use of natural resources. This must have contributed significantly to the stability of Indian caste society over several thousand years. The collapse of the base of natural resources and increasing monetarization of the economy has, however, destroyed the earlier complementarity between the different castes and led to increasing conflicts between them in recent years.

Design considerations and economics of different shaped surface aeration tanks

This paper deals with the design considerations of surface aeration tanks on two basic issues of oxygen transfer coefficient and power requirements for the surface aeration system. Earlier developed simulation equations for simulating the oxygen transfer coefficient with theoretical power per unit volume have been verified by conducting experiments in geometrically similar but differently shaped and sized square tanks, rectangular tanks of length to width ratio (L/W) of 1.5 and 2 as well as circular tanks. Based on the experimental investigations, new simulation criteria to simulate actual power per unit volume have been proposed. Based on such design considerations, it has been demonstrated that it is economical (in terms of energy saving) to use smaller tanks rather than using a bigger tank to aerate the same volume of water for any shape of tanks. Among the various shapes studied, it has been found that circular tanks are more energy efficient than any other shape.

Assessing the mitigation potential of forestry activities in a changing climate: A case study for Karnataka

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol allows Afforestation and Reforestation (A/R) projects as mitigation activities to offset the CO2 in the atmosphere whilst simultaneously seeking to ensure sustainable development for the host country. The Kyoto Protocol was ratified by the Government of India in August 2002 and one of India's objectives in acceding to the Protocol was to fulfil the prerequisites for implementation of projects under the CDM in accordance with national sustainable priorities. The objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of using large-scale forestry projects under the CDM in achieving its twin goals using Karnataka State as a case study. The Generalized Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (GCOMAP) Model is used to observe the effect of varying carbon prices on the land available for A/R projects. The model is coupled with outputs from the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to incorporate the impacts of temperature rise due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B1. With rising temperatures and CO2, vegetation productivity is increased under A2 and A1B scenarios and reduced under B1. Results indicate that higher carbon price paths produce higher gains in carbon credits and accelerate the rate at which available land hits maximum capacity thus acting as either an incentive or disincentive for landowners to commit their lands to forestry mitigation projects. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From Bathymetry to Bioshields: A Review of Post-Tsunami Ecological Research in India and its Implications for Policy

More than half a decade has passed since the December 26th 2004 tsunami hit the Indian coast leaving a trail of ecological, economic and human destruction in its wake. We reviewed the coastal ecological research carried out in India in the light of the tsunami. In addition, we also briefly reviewed the ecological research in other tsunami affected countries in Asia namely Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand and Maldives in order to provide a broader perspective of ecological research after tsunami. A basic search in ISI Web of Knowledge using keywords ``tsunami'' and ``India'' resulted in 127 peer reviewed journal articles, of which 39 articles were pertaining to ecological sciences. In comparison, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand and Maldives had, respectively, eight, four, 21 and two articles pertaining to ecology. In India, bioshields received the major share of scientific interest (14 out of 39) while only one study (each) was dedicated to corals, seagrasses, seaweeds and meiofauna, pointing to the paucity of research attention dedicated to these critical ecosystems. We noted that very few interdisciplinary studies looked at linkages between pure/applied sciences and the social sciences in India. In addition, there appears to be little correlation between the limited research that was done and its influence on policy in India. This review points to gap areas in ecological research in India and highlights the lessons learnt from research in other tsunami-affected countries. It also provides guidance on the links between science and policy that are required for effective coastal zone management.

Potential and economics of forestry options for carbon sequestration in India

There is a need to understand the carbon (C) sequestration potential of the forestry option and its financial implications for each country.In India the C emissions from deforestation are estimated to be nearly offset by C sequestration in forests under succession and tree plantations. India has nearly succeeded in stabilizing the area under forests and has adequate forest conservation strategies. Biomass demands for softwood, hardwood and firewood are estimated to double or treble by the year 2020. A set of forestry options were developed to meet the projected biomass needs, and keeping in mind the features of land categories available, three scenarios were developed: potential; demand-driven; and programme-driven scenarios. Adoption of the demand-driven scenario, targeted at meeting the projected biomass needs, is estimated to sequester 78 Mt of C annually after accounting for all emissions resulting from clearfelling and end use of biomass. The demand-driven scenario is estimated to offset 50% of national C emission at 1990 level. The cost per t of C sequestered for forestry options is lower than the energy options considered. The annual investment required for implementing the demand-driven scenario is estimated to be US$ 2.1 billion for six years and is shown to be feasible. Among forestry options, the ranking based on investment cost per t of C sequestered from least cost to highest cost is; natural regeneration-agro-forestry-enhanced natural regeneration (< US$ 2.5/t C)-timber-community-softwood forestry (US$ 3.3 to 7.3 per t of C).

On the integrability and chaotic behavior of an ecological model

A three-species food chain model is studied analytically as well as numerically. Integrability of the model is studied using Painleve analysis while chaotic behavior is studied using numerical techniques, such as calculation of Lyapunov exponents, plotting the bifurcation diagram and phase plots. We correct and critically comment on the wrong results reported recently on this ecological model, in a paper by Rai [1995].