Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore

This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Bangalore, South India. Analyses have been carried out considering the seismotectonic parameters of the region covering a radius of 350 km keeping Bangalore as the center. Seismic hazard parameter `b' has been evaluated considering the available earthquake data using (1) Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relationship and (2) Kijko and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) method utilizing extreme and complete catalogs. The `b' parameter was estimated to be 0.62 to 0.98 from G-R relation and 0.87 +/- A 0.03 from Kijko and Sellevoll method. The results obtained are a little higher than the `b' values published earlier for southern India. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore region has been carried out considering six seismogenic sources. From the analysis, mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of the rock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) are mapped for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km x 0.5 km. In addition, Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level is also developed for the 5% damping corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.121 g obtained from the present investigation is slightly lower (but comparable) than the PGA values obtained from the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) for the same area. However, the PGA value obtained in the current investigation is higher than PGA values reported in the global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) maps of Bhatia et al. (1999) for the shield area.

Seismic hazard analysis of Lucknow considering local and active seismic gaps

The Himalayas are one of very active seismic regions in the world where devastating earthquakes of 1803 Bihar-Nepal, 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, 1950 Assam and 2011 Sikkim were reported. Several researchers highlighted central seismic gap based on the stress accumulation in central part of Himalaya and the non-occurrence of earthquake between 1905 Kangra and 1934 Bihar-Nepal. The region has potential of producing great seismic event in the near future. As a result of this seismic gap, all regions which fall adjacent to the active Himalayan region are under high possible seismic hazard due to future earthquakes in the Himalayan region. In this study, the study area of the Lucknow urban centre which lies within 350 km from the central seismic gap has been considered for detailed assessment of seismic hazard. The city of Lucknow also lies close to Lucknow-Faizabad fault having a seismic gap of 350 years. Considering the possible seismic gap in the Himalayan region and also the seismic gap in Lucknow-Faizabad fault, the seismic hazard of Lucknow has been studied based on deterministic and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Results obtained show that the northern and western parts of Lucknow are found to have a peak ground acceleration of 0.11-0.13 g, which is 1.6- to 2.0-fold higher than the seismic hazard compared to the other parts of Lucknow.

Reassessing the earthquake hazard in Kerala based on the historical and current seismicity

Given the lack of proper constraints in understanding earthquake mechanisms in the cratonic interiors and the general absence of good quality database, here we reassess the seismic hazard in the province of Kerala, a part of the aEuro cent stable continental interioraEuro cent, based on an improved historical and instrumental database. The temporal pattern of the current seismicity suggests that > 60% of the microtremors in Kerala occurs with a time lag after the peak rainfall, indicating that hydroseismicity may be a plausible model to explain the low-level seismicity in this region. Further, an increment in overall seismicity rate in the region in the recent years is explained as due to increased anthropogenic activities, which includes changes in hydrological pathways as a consequence of rapid landscape changes. Our analyses of the historical database eliminate a few events that are ascribed to this region; this exercise has also led to identification of a few events, not previously noted. The improved historical database essentially suggests that the central midland region is more prone to seismic activity compared to other parts of Kerala. This region appears to have generated larger number of significant earthquakes; the most prominent being the multiple events (doublets) of 1856 and 1953, whose magnitudes are comparable to that of the 2000/2001 (central Kerala) events. Occurrences of these historical events and the recent earthquakes, and the local geology indicative of pervasive faulting as shown by widely distributed pseudotachylite veins suggest that the NNW-SSE trending faults in central midland Kerala may host discrete potentially active sources that may be capable of generating light to moderate size earthquakes. The frequency of earthquakes in central Kerala evident from the historical database requires that the seismic codes stipulated for this region are made mandatory.

Comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Andaman-Nicobar Regions

An updated catalog of earthquakes has been prepared for the Andaman-Nicobar and adjoining regions. The catalog was homogenized to a unified magnitude scale, and declustering of the catalog was performed to remove aftershocks and foreshocks. Eleven regional source zones were identified in the study area to account for local variability in seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters were estimated for each of these source zones, and the seismic hazard evaluation of the Andaman-Nicobar region has been performed using different source models and attenuation relations. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed with currently available data and their best possible scientific interpretation using an appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainty by considering alternative models (source models, maximum magnitude, and attenuation relationships). The hazard maps for different periods have been produced for horizontal ground motion on the bedrock level.

Seismic hazard analysis of India using areal sources

In view of the major advancement made in understanding the seismicity and seismotectonics of the Indian region in recent times, an updated probabilistic seismic hazard map of India covering 6-38 degrees N and 68-98 degrees E is prepared. This paper presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of India done using regional seismic source zones and four well recognized attenuation relations considering varied tectonic provinces in the region. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees. Peak Horizontal Acceleration (PHA) and spectral accelerations for periods 0.1 s and 1 s have been estimated and contour maps showing the spatial variation of the same are presented in the paper. The present study shows that the seismic hazard is moderate in peninsular shield, but the hazard in most parts of North and Northeast India is high. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Site classification and estimation of surface level seismic hazard using geophysical data and probabilistic approach

This paper presents the site classification of Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area using geophysical data and the evaluation of spectral acceleration at ground level using probabilistic approach. Site classification has been carried out using experimental data from the shallow geophysical method of Multichannel Analysis of Surface wave (MASW). One-dimensional (1-D) MASW survey has been carried out at 58 locations and respective velocity profiles are obtained. The average shear wave velocity for 30 m depth (Vs(30)) has been calculated and is used for the site classification of the BMP area as per NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program). Based on the Vs(30) values major part of the BMP area can be classified as ``site class D'', and ``site class C'. A smaller portion of the study area, in and around Lalbagh Park, is classified as ``site class B''. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out to map the seismic hazard in terms spectral acceleration (S-a) at rock and the ground level considering the site classes and six seismogenic sources identified. The mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for S. have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of spectral acceleration for short period and long period are mapped for rock, site class C and D with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km. In addition to this, the Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at surface level has been developed for the 5% damping and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock, site class C and D These spectral acceleration and uniform hazard spectrums can be used to assess the design force for important structures and also to develop the design spectrum.

Multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation for Bangalore city, India

Different seismic hazard components pertaining to Bangalore city,namely soil overburden thickness, effective shear-wave velocity, factor of safety against liquefaction potential, peak ground acceleration at the seismic bedrock, site response in terms of amplification factor, and the predominant frequency, has been individually evaluated. The overburden thickness distribution, predominantly in the range of 5-10 m in the city, has been estimated through a sub-surface model from geotechnical bore-log data. The effective shear-wave velocity distribution, established through Multi-channel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) survey and subsequent data interpretation through dispersion analysis, exhibits site class D (180-360 m/s), site class C (360-760 m/s), and site class B (760-1500 m/s) in compliance to the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) nomenclature. The peak ground acceleration has been estimated through deterministic approach, based on the maximum credible earthquake of M-W = 5.1 assumed to be nucleating from the closest active seismic source (Mandya-Channapatna-Bangalore Lineament). The 1-D site response factor, computed at each borehole through geotechnical analysis across the study region, is seen to be ranging from around amplification of one to as high as four times. Correspondingly, the predominant frequency estimated from the Fourier spectrum is found to be predominantly in range of 3.5-5.0 Hz. The soil liquefaction hazard assessment has been estimated in terms of factor of safety against liquefaction potential using standard penetration test data and the underlying soil properties that indicates 90% of the study region to be non-liquefiable. The spatial distributions of the different hazard entities are placed on a GIS platform and subsequently, integrated through analytical hierarchal process. The accomplished deterministic hazard map shows high hazard coverage in the western areas. The microzonation, thus, achieved is envisaged as a first-cut assessment of the site specific hazard in laying out a framework for higher order seismic microzonation as well as a useful decision support tool in overall land-use planning, and hazard management. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seismic hazard map of Coimbatore using subsurface fault rupture

This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories: one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M-w) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01 degrees and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones, as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources.

A study on seismicity and seismic hazard for Karnataka State

This paper presents a detailed study on the seismic pattern of the state of Karnataka and also quantifies the seismic hazard for the entire state. In the present work, historical and instrumental seismicity data for Karnataka (within 300 km from Karnataka political boundary) were compiled and hazard analysis was done based on this data. Geographically, Karnataka forms a part of peninsular India which is tectonically identified as an intraplate region of Indian plate. Due to the convergent movement of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate, movements are occurring along major intraplate faults resulting in seismic activity of the region and hence the hazard assessment of this region is very important. Apart from referring to seismotectonic atlas for identifying faults and fractures, major lineaments in the study area were also mapped using satellite data. The earthquake events reported by various national and international agencies were collected until 2009. Declustering of earthquake events was done to remove foreshocks and aftershocks. Seismic hazard analysis was done for the state of Karnataka using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches incorporating logic tree methodology. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at rock level was evaluated for the entire state considering a grid size of 0.05A degrees x 0.05A degrees. The attenuation relations proposed for stable continental shield region were used in evaluating the seismic hazard with appropriate weightage factors. Response spectra at rock level for important Tier II cities and Bangalore were evaluated. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values at bedrock are presented in this work.

Deterministic seismic hazard macrozonation of India

Earthquakes are known to have occurred in Indian subcontinent from ancient times. This paper presents the results of seismic hazard analysis of India (6 degrees-38 degrees N and 68 degrees-98 degrees E) based on the deterministic approach using latest seismicity data (up to 2010). The hazard analysis was done using two different source models (linear sources and point sources) and 12 well recognized attenuation relations considering varied tectonic provinces in the region. The earthquake data obtained from different sources were homogenized and declustered and a total of 27,146 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were listed in the study area. The sesismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. A new program was developed in MATLAB for smoothing of the point sources. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees (approximately 10 x 10 km), and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 300 to 400 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral accelerations for periods 0.1 and 1 s have been calculated for all the grid points with a deterministic approach using a code written in MATLAB. Epistemic uncertainty in hazard definition has been tackled within a logic-tree framework considering two types of sources and three attenuation models for each grid point. The hazard evaluation without logic tree approach also has been done for comparison of the results. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of hazard values are presented in the paper.

Representative seismic hazard map of Coimbatore, India

The seismic hazard value of any region depends upon three important components such as probable earthquake location, maximum earthquake magnitude and the attenuation equation. This paper presents a representative way of estimating these three important components considering region specific seismotectonic features. Rupture Based Seismic Hazard Analysis (RBSHA) given by Anbazhagan et al. (2011) is used to determine the probable future earthquake locations. This approach is verified on the earthquake data of Bhuj region. The probable earthquake location for this region is identified considering earthquake data till the year 2000. These identified locations match well with the reported locations after 2000. The further Coimbatore City is selected as the study area to develop a representative seismic hazard map using RBSHA approach and to compare with deterministic seismic hazard analysis. Probable future earthquake zones for Coimbatore are located considering the rupture phenomenon as per energy release theory discussed by Anbazhagan et at (2011). Rupture character of the region has been established by estimating the subsurface rupture length of each source and normalized with respect to the length of the source. Average rupture length of the source with respect to its total length is found to be similar for most of the sources in the region, which is called as the rupture character of the region. Maximum magnitudes of probable zones are estimated considering seismic sources close by and regional rupture character established. Representative GMPEs for the study area have been selected by carrying out efficacy test through an average log likelihood value (LLH) as ranking estimator and considering the Isoseismal map. New seismic hazard map of Coimbatore has been developed using the above regional representative parameters of probable earthquake locations, maximum earthquake magnitude and best suitable GMPEs. The new hazard map gives acceleration values at bedrock for maximum possible earthquakes. These results are compared with deterministic seismic hazard map and recently published probabilistic seismic hazard values. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.