Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

Identification of dynamical systems with fractional derivative damping models using inverse sensitivity analysis

The problem of identifying parameters of time invariant linear dynamical systems with fractional derivative damping models, based on a spatially incomplete set of measured frequency response functions and experimentally determined eigensolutions, is considered. Methods based on inverse sensitivity analysis of damped eigensolutions and frequency response functions are developed. It is shown that the eigensensitivity method requires the development of derivatives of solutions of an asymmetric generalized eigenvalue problem. Both the first and second order inverse sensitivity analyses are considered. The study demonstrates the successful performance of the identification algorithms developed based on synthetic data on one, two and a 33 degrees of freedom vibrating systems with fractional dampers. Limited studies have also been conducted by combining finite element modeling with experimental data on accelerances measured in laboratory conditions on a system consisting of two steel beams rigidly joined together by a rubber hose. The method based on sensitivity of frequency response functions is shown to be more efficient than the eigensensitivity based method in identifying system parameters, especially for large scale systems.

Electrochemical phase formation involving multicomponents: hemispherical overlap models for varied nucleation and growth conditions

The phenomenological theory of hemispherical growth in the context of phase formation with more than one component is presented. The model discusses in a unified manner both instantaneous and progressive nucleation (at the substrate) as well as arbitrary growth rates (e.g. constant and diffusion controlled growth rates). A generalized version of Avrami ansatz (a mean field description) is used to tackle the ''overlap'' aspects arising from the growing multicentres of the many components involved, observing that the nucleation is confined to the substrate plane only. The time evolution of the total extent of macrogrowth as well as those of the individual components are discussed explicitly for the case of two phases. The asymptotic expressions for macrogrowth are derived. Such analysis depicts a saturation limit (i.e. the maximum extent of growth possible) for the slower growing component and its dependence on the kinetic parameters which, in the electrochemical context, can be controlled through potential. The significance of this model in the context of multicomponent alloy deposition and possible future directions for further development are pointed out.

Lamination-dependent shear deformation models for bending of angle-ply laminated plates

Lamination-dependent shear corrective terms in the analysis of bending of laminated plates are derived from a priori assumed linear thicknesswise distributions for gradients of transverse shear stresses by using CLPT inplane stresses in the two in-plane equilibrium equations of elasticity in each ply. In the development of a general model for angle-ply laminated plates, special cases like cylindrical bending of laminates in either direction, symmetric laminates, cross-ply laminates, antisymmetric angle-ply laminates, homogeneous plates are taken into consideration. Adding these corrective terms to the assumed displacements in (i) Classical Laminate Plate Theory (CLPT) and (ii) Classical Laminate Shear Deformation Theory (CLSDT), two new refined lamination-dependent shear deformation models are developed. Closed form solutions from these models are obtained for antisymmetric angle-ply laminates under sinusoidal load for a type of simply supported boundary conditions. Results obtained from the present models and also from Ren's model (1987) are compared with each other.

Development of vaccines against tuberculosis

Development of an effective vaccine against tuberculosis (TB) hinges on an improved understanding of the human immune responses to Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A successful vaccination strategy should be able to stimulate the appropriate arm of the immune system with concomitant generation of the memory cells. In the absence of a perfect strategy, while long term efforts of TB researchers continue to resolve the nature of protective immunity against TB and other related issues, the current approach, dictated by the urgency of a TB vaccine, employs available knowledge and technology to develop new TB vaccines and channel the promising ones to clinical trials. While Indian scientists have contributed in several areas towards the development of a TB vaccine, this review is an attempt to summarize their contributions mainly pertaining to the discovery of new antigens, immune responses elicited by antigens against TB and development of new vaccines and their evaluation in animal models. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Comparative Study of Early Afterdepolarization-Mediated Fibrillation in Two Mathematical Models for Human Ventricular Cells

Early afterdepolarizations (EADs), which are abnormal oscillations of the membrane potential at the plateau phase of an action potential, are implicated in the development of cardiac arrhythmias like Torsade de Pointes. We carry out extensive numerical simulations of the TP06 and ORd mathematical models for human ventricular cells with EADs. We investigate the different regimes in both these models, namely, the parameter regimes where they exhibit (1) a normal action potential (AP) with no EADs, (2) an AP with EADs, and (3) an AP with EADs that does not go back to the resting potential. We also study the dependence of EADs on the rate of at which we pace a cell, with the specific goal of elucidating EADs that are induced by slow or fast rate pacing. In our simulations in two-and three-dimensional domains, in the presence of EADs, we find the following wave types: (A) waves driven by the fast sodium current and the L-type calcium current (Na-Ca-mediated waves); (B) waves driven only by the L-type calcium current (Ca-mediated waves); (C) phase waves, which are pseudo-travelling waves. Furthermore, we compare the wave patterns of the various wave-types (Na-Ca-mediated, Ca-mediated, and phase waves) in both these models. We find that the two models produce qualitatively similar results in terms of exhibiting Na-Ca-mediated wave patterns that are more chaotic than those for the Ca-mediated and phase waves. However, there are quantitative differences in the wave patterns of each wave type. The Na-Ca-mediated waves in the ORd model show short-lived spirals but the TP06 model does not. The TP06 model supports more Ca-mediated spirals than those in the ORd model, and the TP06 model exhibits more phase-wave patterns than does the ORd model.

DESIGN REQUIREMENTS FOR DIRECT SUPERCRITICAL CARBON DIOXIDE RECEIVER DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING

This paper establishes the design requirements for the development and testing of direct supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) solar receivers. Current design considerations are based on the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC). Section I (BPVC) considers typical boilers/superheaters (i.e. fired pressure vessels) which work under a constant low heat flux. Section VIII (BPVC) considers pressure vessels with operating pressures above 15 psig 2 bar] (i.e. unfired pressure vessels). Section III, Division I - Subsection NH (BPVC) considers a more detailed stress calculation, compared to Section I and Section VIII, and requires a creep-fatigue analysis. The main drawback from using the BPVC exclusively is the large safety requirements developed for nuclear power applications. As a result, a new set of requirements is needed to perform detailed thermal-structural analyses of solar thermal receivers subjected to a spatially-varying, high-intensity heat flux. The last design requirements document of this kind was an interim Sandia report developed in 1979 (SAND79-8183), but it only addresses some of the technical challenges in early-stage steam and molten-salt solar receivers but not the use of sCO2 receivers. This paper presents a combination of the ASME BPVC and ASME B31.1 Code modified appropriately to achieve the reliability requirements in sCO(2) solar power systems. There are five main categories in this requirements document: Operation and Safety, Materials and Manufacturing, Instrumentation, Maintenance and Environmental, and General requirements. This paper also includes the modeling guidelines and input parameters required in computational fluid dynamics and structural analyses utilizing ANSYS Fluent, ANSYS Mechanical, and nCode Design Life. The main purpose of this document is to serve as a reference and guideline for design and testing requirements, as well as to address the technical challenges and provide initial parameters for the computational models that will be employed for the development of sCO(2) receivers.