The hemispheric asymmetry of solar activity during the last century and the solar dynamo

We believe the Babcock-Leighton process of poloidal field generation to be the main source of irregularity in the solar cycle. The random nature of this process may make the poloidal field in one hemisphere stronger than that in the other hemisphere at the end of a cycle. We expect this to induce an asymmetry in the next sunspot cycle. We look for evidence of this in the observational data and then model it theoretically with our dynamo code. Since actual polar field measurements exist only from the 1970s, we use the polar faculae number data recorded by Sheeley (1991, 2008) as a proxy of the polar field and estimate the hemispheric asymmetry of the polar field in different solar minima during the major part of the twentieth century. This asymmetry is found to have a reasonable correlation with the asymmetry of the next cycle. We then run our dynamo code by feeding information about this asymmetry at the successive minima and compare the results with observational data. We find that the theoretically computed asymmetries of different cycles compare favorably with the observational data, with the correlation coefficient being 0.73. Due to the coupling between the two hemispheres, any hemispheric asymmetry tends to get attenuated with time. The hemispheric asymmetry of a cycle either from observational data or from theoretical calculations statistically tends to be less than the asymmetry in the polar field (as inferred from the faculae data) in the preceding minimum. This reduction factor turns out to be 0.43 and 0.51 respectively in observational data and theoretical simulations.

Flow of metal into the flash gap in the last stages of a plane-strain closed-die forging operation

In closed-die forging the flash geometry should be such as to ensure that the cavity is completely filled just as the two dies come into contact at the parting plane. If metal is caused to extrude through the flash gap as the dies approach the point of contact — a practice generally resorted to as a means of ensuring complete filling — dies are unnecessarily stressed in a high-stress regime (as the flash is quite thin and possibly cooled by then), which reduces the die life and unnecessarily increases the energy requirement of the operation. It is therefore necessary to carefully determine the dimensions of the flash land and flash thickness — the two parameters, apart from friction at the land, which control the lateral flow. The dimensions should be such that the flow into the longitudinal cavity is controlled throughout the operation, ensuring complete filling just as the dies touch at the parting plane. The design of the flash must be related to the shape and size of the forging cavity as the control of flow has to be exercised throughout the operation: it is possible to do this if the mechanics of how the lateral extrusion into the flash takes place is understood for specific cavity shapes and sizes. The work reported here is part of an ongoing programme investigating flow in closed-die forging. A simple closed shape (no longitudinal flow) which may correspond to the last stages of a real forging operation is analysed using the stress equilibrium approach. Metal from the cavity (flange) flows into the flash by shearing in the cavity in one of the three modes considered here: for a given cavity the mode with the least energy requirement is assumed to be the most realistic. On this basis a map has been developed which, given the depth and width of the cavity as well as the flash thickness, will tell the designer of the most likely mode (of the three modes considered) in which metal in the cavity will shear and then flow into the flash gap. The results of limited set of experiments, reported herein, validate this method of selecting the optimum model of flow into the flash gap.

Climatic variability in Central Indian Himalaya during the last similar to 1800 years: Evidence from a high resolution speleothem record

Stable isotopes from a U/Th dated aragonite stalagmite from the Central Kumaun Himalaya provide evidence of variation in climatic conditions in the last similar to 1800 years. The delta O-18 and delta C-13 values vary from -4.3 parts per thousand to -7.6 parts per thousand and -3.4 parts per thousand to -9.1 parts per thousand respectively, although the stalagmite was not grown in isotopic equilibrium with cave drip water, a clear palaeoclimatic signal in stalagmite delta O-18 values is evident based on the regional climate data. The stalagmite showed a rapid growth rate during 830-910 AD, most likely the lower part of Medieval Warm Period (MWP), and 1600-1640 AD, the middle part of Little Ice Age (LIA). Two distinct phases of reduced precipitation are marked by a 2 parts per thousand shift in 8180 values towards the end of MWP (similar to 1080-1160 AD) and after its termination from similar to 1210 to 1440 AD. The LIA (similar to 1440-1880 AD) is represented by sub-tropical climate similar to modern conditions, whereas the post-LIA was comparatively drier. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was located over the cave location during wetter/warmer conditions. When it shifted southward, precipitation over the study area decreased. A prominent drop in delta O-18 and delta C-13 values during the post-LIA period may also have been additionally influenced by anthropogenic activity in the area. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.