Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species

Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.

Climate change and forests in India

Forests play a critical role in addressing climate change concerns in the broader context of global change and sustainable development. Forests are linked to climate change in three ways. i) Forests are a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: ii) Forests offer mitigation opportunities to stabilise GHG concentrations: iii) Forests are impacted by climate change. This paper reviews studies related to climate change and forests in India: first, the studies estimating carbon inventory for the Indian land use change and forestry sector (LUCF), then the different models and mitigation potential estimates for the LUCF sector in India. Finally it reviews the studies on the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in India, identifying the implications for net primary productivity and bio-diversity. The paper highlights data, modelling and research gaps relevant to the GHG inventory, mitigation potential and vulnerability and impact assessments for the forest sector in India.

Problems with geoengineering schemes to combat climate change

The accelerated rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration in recent years has revived the idea of stabilizing the global climate through geoengineering schemes. Majority of the proposed geoengineering schemes will attempt to reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed by our planet. Climate modelling studies of these so called 'sunshade geoengineering schemes' show that global warming from increasing concentrations of CO2 can be mitigated by intentionally manipulating the amount of sunlight absorbed by the climate system. These studies also suggest that the residual changes could be large on regional scales, so that climate change may not be mitigated on a local basis. More recent modelling studies have shown that these schemes could lead to a slow-down in the global hydrological cycle. Other problems such as changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and ocean acidification remain unsolved by sunshade geoengineering schemes. In this article, I review the proposed geoengineering schemes, results from climate models and discuss why geoengineering is not the best option to deal with climate change.

Equivariant Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture for the Base Change of Elliptic Curves: An Example

Let E be an elliptic curve defined over Q and let K/Q be a finite Galois extension with Galois group G. The equivariant Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture for h(1)(E x(Q) K)(1) viewed as amotive over Q with coefficients in Q[G] relates the twisted L-values associated with E with the arithmetic invariants of the same. In this paper I prescribe an approach to verify this conjecture for a given data. Using this approach, we verify the conjecture for an elliptic curve of conductor 11 and an S-3-extension of Q.

Unsteady Natural Convection Flow in a Square Cavity Filled with a Porous Medium Due to Impulsive Change in Wall Temperature

Unsteady natural convection flow in a two- dimensional square cavity filled with a porous material has been studied. The flow is initially steady where the left- hand vertical wall has temperature T-h and the right- hand vertical wall is maintained at temperature T-c ( T-h > T-c) and the horizontal walls are insulated. At time t > 0, the left- hand vertical wall temperature is suddenly raised to (T-h) over bar ((T-h) over bar > T-h) which introduces unsteadiness in the flow field. The partial differential equations governing the unsteady natural convection flow have been solved numerically using a finite control volume method. The computation has been carried out until the final steady state is reached. It is found that the average Nusselt number attains a minimum during the transient period and that the time required to reach the final steady state is longer for low Rayleigh number and shorter for high Rayleigh number.

Role of Melt Convection on the Thermal Performance of Heat Sinks with Phase Change Material

The role of melt convection oil the performance of beat sinks with Phase Change Material (PCM) is presented in this paper. The beat sink consists of aluminum plate fins embedded in PCM and heat flux is supplied from the bottom. The design of such a heat sink requires optimization with respect to its geometrical parameters. The objective of the optimization is to maximize the heat sink operation time for the prescribed heat flux and the critical chip temperature. The parameters considered for optimization are fin number and fill thickness. The height and base plate thickness of heat sink are kept constant in the present analysis. An enthalpy based CFD model is developed, which is capable Of Simulating phase change and associated melt convection. The CFD model is Coupled with Genetic Algorithm (GA) for carrying out the optimization. Two cases are considered, one without melt convection (conduction regime) and the other with convection. It is found that the geometrical optimizations of heat sinks are different for the two cases, indicating the importance of inch convection in the design of heat sinks with PCMs.

Heat transfer with solid liquid phase change initiating at a point in a semi infinite mold

Short-time analytical solutions of temperature and moving boundary in two-dimensional two-phase freezing due to a cold spot are presented in this paper. The melt occupies a semi-infinite region. Although the method of solution is valid for various other types of boundary conditions, the results in this paper are given only for the prescribed flux boundary conditions which could be space and time dependent. The freezing front propagations along the interior of the melt region exhibit well known behaviours but the propagations along the surface are of new type. The freezing front always depends on material parameters. Several interesting results can be obtained as particular cases of the general results.

Temperature dependence of the surface conductivity of YBa2Cu3O7−δ accompanying the change in the concentration of dimerized oxygen holes

The intensity of inelastically scattered electrons measured by electron energy loss spectroscopy has been employed to monitor the surface conductivity of YBa2Cu3O6.9 as a function of temperature. The study shows a drastic change in surface conductivity precedes the superconducting transition at 90K. The increase in surface conductivity is accompanied by the formation of dimerized holes in the oxygen derived p-band. This phenomenon is not observed in the non-superconducting YBa2Cu3O6.2.

Metal Auger intensity ratios as a probe for change-transfer effects in aluminum-covered transition metal

Marked changes in the LVV/LMV and LVV/LMM Auger intensity ratios of Co, Ni and Cu are observed on depositing Al on their surfaces. These changes, ascribed to charge-transfer or hybridization effects, are accompanied by changes in the intensity of the satellites next to the core levels of the transition metals.

Alamethicin and synthetic peptide fragments as uncouplers of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation. Effect of chain length and change

Alamethicin, its derivatives and some synthetic fragments have been shown to be uncouplers of oxidative phosphorylation in rat liver mitochondria. A minimum peptide chain length of 13 residues is necessary for this activity. Peptide esters are more efficient uncouplers than the corresponding peptide acids. Esterification of the Glu(18) γ-COOH group in alamethicin does not diminish uncoupling activity. The structural requirements for uncoupling activity parallel those determined for ionophoretic action in small, unilamellar liposomes. Aib, α-aminoisobutyric acid; Z, benzyloxycarbonyl; OMe, methyl ester; OBz, benzyl ester; Ac, acetyl; CTC, chlortetracycline.

Effectiveness factor for zeroth-order catalytic reactions with volume change and nonuniform catalyst activity profiles

Analytical solutions are presented for the effectiveness factor of a zeroth-order reaction with volume change and nonuniform catalyst activity profile in slab, cylinder and spherical pellets. The possibility of shape normalization is considered for a variety of activity profiles and pellet shapes. When the catalyst activity at the external surface of the pellet is non-zero, shape normalization is obtained, which makes the asymptotic behavior of the effectiveness factor identical for small and large values of Thiele modulus, however, the normalization can lead to significant errors, particularly for the case of activity profiles decreasing towards the outer surface of the catalyst.

Two-dimensional heat conduction with phase change in a semi-infinite mould

Analytical solution of a 2-dimensional problem of solidification of a superheated liquid in a semi-infinite mould has been studied in this paper. On the boundary, the prescribed temperature is such that the solidification starts simultaneously at all points of the boundary. Results are also given for the 2-dimensional ablation problem. The solution of the heat conduction equation has been obtained in terms of multiple Laplace integrals involving suitable unknown fictitious initial temperatures. These fictitious initial temperatures have interesting physical interpretations. By choosing suitable series expansions for fictitious initial temperatures and moving interface boundary, the unknown quantities can be determined. Solidification thickness has been calculated for short time and effect of parameters on the solidification thickness has been shown with the help of graphs.

Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.

Response of a turbulent boundary layer to a step change in surface heat flux

Measurements of both the velocity and the temperature field have been made in the thermal layer that grows inside a turbulent boundary layer which is subjected to a small step change in surface heat flux. Upstream of the step, the wall heat flux is zero and the velocity boundary layer is nearly self-preserving. The thermal-layer measurements are discussed in the context of a self-preserving analysis for the temperature disturbance which grows underneath a thick external turbulent boundary layer. A logarithmic mean temperature profile is established downstream of the step but the budget for the mean-square temperature fluctuations shows that, in the inner region of the thermal layer, the production and dissipation of temperature fluctuations are not quite equal at the furthest downstream measurement station. The measurements for both the mean and the fluctuating temperature field indicate that the relaxation distance for the thermal layer is quite large, of the order of 1000θ0, where θ0 is the momentum thickness of the boundary layer at the step. Statistics of the thermal-layer interface and conditionally sampled measurements with respect to this interface are presented. Measurements of the temperature intermittency factor indicate that the interface is normally distributed with respect to its mean position. Near the step, the passive heat contaminant acts as an effective marker of the organized turbulence structure that has been observed in the wall region of a boundary layer. Accordingly, conditional averages of Reynolds stresses and heat fluxes measured in the heated part of the flow are considerably larger than the conventional averages when the temperature intermittency factor is small.