Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

An automatic parallelization framework for multicomputers

Several researchers have looked into various issues related to automatic parallelization of sequential programs for multicomputers. But there is a need for a coherent framework which encompasses all these issues. In this paper we present a such a framework which takes best advantage of the multicomputer architecture. We resort to tiling transformation for iteration space partitioning and propose a scheme of automatic data partitioning and dynamic data distribution. We have tried a simple implementation of our scheme on a transputer based multicomputer [1] and the results are encouraging.

Making risk minimization tolerant to label noise

In many applications, the training data, from which one needs to learn a classifier, is corrupted with label noise. Many standard algorithms such as SVM perform poorly in the presence of label noise. In this paper we investigate the robustness of risk minimization to label noise. We prove a sufficient condition on a loss function for the risk minimization under that loss to be tolerant to uniform label noise. We show that the 0-1 loss, sigmoid loss, ramp loss and probit loss satisfy this condition though none of the standard convex loss functions satisfy it. We also prove that, by choosing a sufficiently large value of a parameter in the loss function, the sigmoid loss, ramp loss and probit loss can be made tolerant to nonuniform label noise also if we can assume the classes to be separable under noise-free data distribution. Through extensive empirical studies, we show that risk minimization under the 0-1 loss, the sigmoid loss and the ramp loss has much better robustness to label noise when compared to the SVM algorithm. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inference for the Component and System Lifetime Distribution of a k-unit Parallel System Based on System Data

In this paper, we consider the inference for the component and system lifetime distribution of a k-unit parallel system with independent components based on system data. The components are assumed to have identical Weibull distribution. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters based on system data. The Fisher information matrix has been derived. We propose -expectation tolerance interval and -content -level tolerance interval for the life distribution of the system. Performance of the estimators and tolerance intervals is investigated via simulation study. A simulated dataset is analyzed for illustration.

Investigation of orographic features influencing spatial distribution of rainfall over the Western Ghats of India using satellite data

Using remotely sensed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall and topographic data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the impact of oroghraphical aspects such as topography, spatial variability of elevation and altitude of apexes are examined to investigate capacious summer monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats (WG) of India. TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall data is validated with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data at 0.5 degrees resolution over the WG. The analysis of spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall with orography of the WG ascertains that the grade of orographic precipitation depends mainly on topography of the mountain barrier followed by steepness of windward side slope and altitude of the mountain. Longer and broader, i.e. cascaded topography, elevated summits and gradually increasing slopes impel the enhancement in precipitation. Comparing topography of various states of the WG, it has been observed that windward side of Karnataka receives intense rainfall in the WG during summer monsoon. It has been observed that the rainfall is enhanced before the peak of the mountain and confined up to the height about 800m over the WG. In addition to this, the spatial distribution of heavy and very heavy rainfall events in the last 14 years has also been explored. Heavy and very heavy rain events on this hilly terrain are categorized with a threshold of precipitation (R) in the range 150>R>120mmday(-1) and exceeding 150mmday(-1) using probability distribution of TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall. The areas which are prone to heavy precipitation are identified. The study would help policy makers to manage the hazard scenario and, to improve weather predictions on mountainous terrain of the WG.

Spatial distribution of aerosol black carbon over India during pre-monsoon season

Aerosol black carbon (BC) mass concentrations ([BC]), measured continuously during a multi-platform field experiment, Integrated Campaign for Aerosols gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB, March-May 2006), from a network of eight observatories spread over geographically distinct environments of India, (which included five mainland stations, one highland station, and two island stations (one each ill Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal)) are examined for their spatio-temporal characteristics. During the period of study, [BC] showed large variations across the country, with values ranging from 27 mu g m(3) over industrial/urban locations to as low as 0.065 mu g m(-3) over the Arabian Sea. For all mainland stations, [BC] remained high compared to highland as well as island stations. Among the island stations, Port Blair (PBR) had higher concentration of BC, compared to Minicoy (MCY), implying more absorbing nature of Bay of Bengal aerosols than Arabian Sea. The highland station Nainital (NTL), in the central Himalayas, showed low values of [BC], comparable or even lower than that of the island station PBR, indicating the prevalence of cleaner environment over there. An examination of the changes in the mean temporal features, as the season advances from winter (December-February) to pre-monsoon (March-May), revealed that: (a) Diurnal variations were pronounced over all the mainland stations, with all afternoon low and a nighttime high: (b) At the islands, the diurnal variations, though resembled those over the mainlands, were less pronounced; and (c) In contrast to this, highland station showed an opposite pattern with an afternoon high and a late night or early morning low. The diurnal variations at all stations are mainly caused by the dynamics of local Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL), At the entire mainland as well as island stations (except HYD and DEL), [BC] showed a decreasing trend from January to May, This is attributed to the increased convective mixing and to the resulting enhanced vertical dispersal of species in the ABL. In addition, large short-period modulations were observed at DEL and HYD, which appeared to be episodic, An examination of this in the light of the MODIS-derived fire count data over India along with the back-trajectory analysis revealed that advection of BC from extensive forest fires and biomass-burning regions upwind were largely responsible for this episodic enhancement in BC at HYD and DEL.

Geometry Of Proline And Hydroxyproline .1. An Analysis Of X-Ray Crystal-Structure Data

We have carried out an analysis of crystal structure data on prolyl and hydroxyprolyl moieties in small molecules. The flexibility of the pyrrolidine ring due to the pyramidal character of nitrogen has been defined in terms of two projection angles δ1 and δ2. The distribution of these parameters in the crystal structures is found to be consistent with results of the energy calculations carried out on prolyl moieties in our laboratory.

Brownian particles in stationary and moving traps: The mean and variance of the heat distribution function

A recent theoretical model developed by Imparato et al. Phys of the experimentally measured heat and work effects produced by the thermal fluctuations of single micron-sized polystyrene beads in stationary and moving optical traps has proved to be quite successful in rationalizing the observed experimental data. The model, based on the overdamped Brownian dynamics of a particle in a harmonic potential that moves at a constant speed under a time-dependent force, is used to obtain an approximate expression for the distribution of the heat dissipated by the particle at long times. In this paper, we generalize the above model to consider particle dynamics in the presence of colored noise, without passing to the overdamped limit, as a way of modeling experimental situations in which the fluctuations of the medium exhibit long-lived temporal correlations, of the kind characteristic of polymeric solutions, for instance, or of similar viscoelastic fluids. Although we have not been able to find an expression for the heat distribution itself, we do obtain exact expressions for its mean and variance, both for the static and for the moving trap cases. These moments are valid for arbitrary times and they also hold in the inertial regime, but they reduce exactly to the results of Imparato et al. in appropriate limits. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.80.011118 PACS.

Vertical distribution of aerosols over the east coast of India inferred from airborne LIDAR measurements

The information on altitude distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere is essential in assessing the impact of aerosol warming on thermal structure and stability of the atmosphere.In addition, aerosol altitude distribution is needed to address complex problems such as the radiative interaction of aerosols in the presence of clouds. With this objective,an extensive, multi-institutional and multi-platform field experiment (ICARB-Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget) was carried out under the Geosphere Biosphere Programme of the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO-GBP) over continental India and adjoining oceans during March to May 2006. Here, we present airborne LIDAR measurements carried out over the east Coast of the India during the ICARB field campaign. An increase in aerosol extinction (scattering + absorption) was observed from the surface upwards with a maximum around 2 to 4 km. Aerosol extinction at higher atmospheric layers (>2 km) was two to three times larger compared to that of the surface. A large fraction (75-85%) of aerosol column optical depth was contributed by aerosols located above 1 km. The aerosol layer heights (defined in this paper as the height at which the gradient in extinction coefficient changes sign) showed a gradual decrease with an increase in the offshore distance. A large fraction (60-75%) of aerosol was found located above clouds indicating enhanced aerosol absorption above clouds. Our study implies that a detailed statistical evaluation of the temporal frequency and spatial extent of elevated aerosol layers is necessary to assess their significance to the climate. This is feasible using data from space-borne lidars such as CALIPSO,which fly in formation with other satellites like MODIS AQUA and MISR, as part of the A-Train constellation.

Continuous Distribution Kinetics for Photopolymerization of Alkyl Methacrylates

The photopolymerization of methyl,ethyl,butyl, and hexyl methacrylates in solution was studied. The effect of initial initiator and monomer concentrations on the time evolution of polymer concentration (M) over bar (n) and PDI was examined. The reversible chain addition and beta-scission, and primary radical termination steps were included in the mechanism along with the classical steps. The rate equations were derived using continuous distribution kinetics and solved numerically to fit the experimental data. The regressed rate coefficients compared well with the literature data. The model predicted the instantaneous increase in (M) over bar (n) and PDI to steady state values. The rate coefficients exhibited a linear increase with the size of alkyl chain of the alkyl methacrylates.

Adsorption of Nitrogen on Activated Carbon-Refit of Experimental Data and Derivation of Properties Required for Design of Equipment

Volumetric method based adsorption measurements of nitrogen on two specimens of activated carbon (Fluka and Sarabhai) reported by us are refitted to two popular isotherms, namely, Dubunin−Astakhov (D−A) and Toth, in light of improved fitting methods derived recently. Those isotherms have been used to derive other data of relevance in design of engineering equipment such as the concentration dependence of heat of adsorption and Henry’s law coefficients. The present fits provide a better representation of experimental measurements than before because the temperature dependence of adsorbed phase volume and structural heterogeneity of micropore distribution have been accounted for in the D−A equation. A new correlation to the Toth equation is a further contribution. The heat of adsorption in the limiting uptake condition is correlated with the Henry’s law coefficients at the near zero uptake condition.

A real coded genetic algorithm for data partitioning and scheduling in networks with arbitrary processor release time

The problem of scheduling divisible loads in distributed computing systems, in presence of processor release time is considered. The objective is to find the optimal sequence of load distribution and the optimal load fractions assigned to each processor in the system such that the processing time of the entire processing load is a minimum. This is a difficult combinatorial optimization problem and hence genetic algorithms approach is presented for its solution.

Transient signal detection using wigner-ville distribution and wavelet denoising

The problem of detecting an unknown transient signal in noise is considered. The SNR of the observed data is first enhanced using wavelet domain filter The output of the wavelet domain filter is then transformed using a Wigner-Ville transform,which separates the spectrum of the observed signal into narrow frequency bands. Each subband signal at the output of the Wigner-ville block is subjected kto wavelet based level dependent denoising (WBLDD)to supress colored noise A weighted sum of the absolute value of outputs of WBLDD is passed through an energy detector, whose output is used as test statistic to take the final decision. By assigning weights proportional to the energy of the corresponding subband signals, the proposed detector approximates a frequency domain matched filter Simulation results are presented to show that the performance of the proposed detector is better than that of the wavelet packet transform based detector.

Second order cone programming approaches for handling missing and uncertain data

We propose a novel second order cone programming formulation for designing robust classifiers which can handle uncertainty in observations. Similar formulations are also derived for designing regression functions which are robust to uncertainties in the regression setting. The proposed formulations are independent of the underlying distribution, requiring only the existence of second order moments. These formulations are then specialized to the case of missing values in observations for both classification and regression problems. Experiments show that the proposed formulations outperform imputation.

Comparison of ANN models for predicting water quality in distribution systems

Deterministic models have been widely used to predict water quality in distribution systems, but their calibration requires extensive and accurate data sets for numerous parameters. In this study, alternative data-driven modeling approaches based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to predict temporal variations of two important characteristics of water quality chlorine residual and biomass concentrations. The authors considered three types of ANN algorithms. Of these, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided the best results in predicting residual chlorine and biomass with error-free and ``noisy'' data. The ANN models developed here can generate water quality scenarios of piped systems in real time to help utilities determine weak points of low chlorine residual and high biomass concentration and select optimum remedial strategies.