Use of Data Driven Techniques for Short Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting in Mahanadi basin

Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparison of ANN models for predicting water quality in distribution systems

Deterministic models have been widely used to predict water quality in distribution systems, but their calibration requires extensive and accurate data sets for numerous parameters. In this study, alternative data-driven modeling approaches based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to predict temporal variations of two important characteristics of water quality chlorine residual and biomass concentrations. The authors considered three types of ANN algorithms. Of these, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided the best results in predicting residual chlorine and biomass with error-free and ``noisy'' data. The ANN models developed here can generate water quality scenarios of piped systems in real time to help utilities determine weak points of low chlorine residual and high biomass concentration and select optimum remedial strategies.

Bivariate frequency analysis of floods using a diffusion based kernel density estimator

Recent focus of flood frequency analysis (FFA) studies has been on development of methods to model joint distributions of variables such as peak flow, volume, and duration that characterize a flood event, as comprehensive knowledge of flood event is often necessary in hydrological applications. Diffusion process based adaptive kernel (D-kernel) is suggested in this paper for this purpose. It is data driven, flexible and unlike most kernel density estimators, always yields a bona fide probability density function. It overcomes shortcomings associated with the use of conventional kernel density estimators in FFA, such as boundary leakage problem and normal reference rule. The potential of the D-kernel is demonstrated by application to synthetic samples of various sizes drawn from known unimodal and bimodal populations, and five typical peak flow records from different parts of the world. It is shown to be effective when compared to conventional Gaussian kernel and the best of seven commonly used copulas (Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank, Clayton, Joe, Normal, Plackett, and Student's T) in estimating joint distribution of peak flow characteristics and extrapolating beyond historical maxima. Selection of optimum number of bins is found to be critical in modeling with D-kernel.

Damage Detection Sensitivity, Specificity and Classification Data Analysis for SHM Systems Design, Verification and Validation

In this paper, we consider applying derived knowledge base regarding the sensitivity and specificity of damage(s) to be detected by an SHM system being designed and qualified. These efforts are necessary toward developing capabilities in SHM system to classify reliably various probable damages through sequence of monitoring, i.e., damage precursor identification, detection of damage and monitoring its progression. We consider the particular problem of visual and ultrasonic NDE based SHM system design requirements, where the damage detection sensitivity and specificity data definitions for a class of structural components are established. Methodologies for SHM system specification creation are discussed in details. Examples are shown to illustrate how the physics of damage detection scheme limits particular damage detection sensitivity and specificity and further how these information can be used in algorithms to combine various different NDE schemes in an SHM system to enhance efficiency and effectiveness. Statistical and data driven models to determine the sensitivity and probability of damage detection (POD) has been demonstrated for plate with varying one-sided line crack using optical and ultrasonic based inspection techniques.

Compiling Techniques for Coarse Grained Runtime Reconfigurable Architectures

In this paper we develop compilation techniques for the realization of applications described in a High Level Language (HLL) onto a Runtime Reconfigurable Architecture. The compiler determines Hyper Operations (HyperOps) that are subgraphs of a data flow graph (of an application) and comprise elementary operations that have strong producer-consumer relationship. These HyperOps are hosted on computation structures that are provisioned on demand at runtime. We also report compiler optimizations that collectively reduce the overheads of data-driven computations in runtime reconfigurable architectures. On an average, HyperOps offer a 44% reduction in total execution time and a 18% reduction in management overheads as compared to using basic blocks as coarse grained operations. We show that HyperOps formed using our compiler are suitable to support data flow software pipelining.

Estimation of remaining life of power transformers

Inadvertent failure of power transformers has serious consequences on the power system reliability, economics and the revenue accrual. Insulation is the weakest link in the power transformer prompting periodic inspection of the status of insulation at different points in time. A close Monitoring of the electrical, chemical and such other properties on insulation as are sensitive to the amount of time-dependent degradation becomes mandatory to judge the status of the equipment. Data-driven Diagnostic Testing and Condition Monitoring (DTCM) specific to power transformer is the aspect in focus. Authors develop a Monte Carlo approach for augmenting the rather scanty experimental data normally acquired using Proto-types of power transformers. Also described is a validation procedure for estimating the accuracy of the Model so developed.

Automatic extraction of free-form surface features (FFSFs)

This paper presents a new algorithm for extracting Free-Form Surface Features (FFSFs) from a surface model. The extraction algorithm is based on a modified taxonomy of FFSFs from that proposed in the literature. A new classification scheme has been proposed for FFSFs to enable their representation and extraction. The paper proposes a separating curve as a signature of FFSFs in a surface model. FFSFs are classified based on the characteristics of the separating curve (number and type) and the influence region (the region enclosed by the separating curve). A method to extract these entities is presented. The algorithm has been implemented and tested for various free-form surface features on different types of free-form surfaces (base surfaces) and is found to correctly identify and represent the features irrespective of the type of underlying surface. The representation and extraction algorithm are both based on topology and geometry. The algorithm is data-driven and does not use any pre-defined templates. The definition presented for a feature is unambiguous and application independent. The proposed classification of FFSFs can be used to develop an ontology to determine semantic equivalences for the feature to be exchanged, mapped and used across PLM applications. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Connectivity analysis of multichannel EEG signals using recurrence based phase synchronization technique

Real world biological systems such as the human brain are inherently nonlinear and difficult to model. However, most of the previous studies have either employed linear models or parametric nonlinear models for investigating brain function. In this paper, a novel application of a nonlinear measure of phase synchronization based on recurrences, correlation between probabilities of recurrence (CPR), to study connectivity in the brain has been proposed. Being non-parametric, this method makes very few assumptions, making it suitable for investigating brain function in a data-driven way. CPR's utility with application to multichannel electroencephalographic (EEG) signals has been demonstrated. Brain connectivity obtained using thresholded CPR matrix of multichannel EEG signals showed clear differences in the number and pattern of connections in brain connectivity between (a) epileptic seizure and pre-seizure and (b) eyes open and eyes closed states. Corresponding brain headmaps provide meaningful insights about synchronization in the brain in those states. K-means clustering of connectivity parameters of CPR and linear correlation obtained from global epileptic seizure and pre-seizure showed significantly larger cluster centroid distances for CPR as opposed to linear correlation, thereby demonstrating the superior ability of CPR for discriminating seizure from pre-seizure. The headmap in the case of focal epilepsy clearly enables us to identify the focus of the epilepsy which provides certain diagnostic value. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of phase synchronization in multichannel seizure EEG using nonlinear recurrence measure

Complex biological systems such as the human brain can be expected to be inherently nonlinear and hence difficult to model. Most of the previous studies on investigations of brain function have either used linear models or parametric nonlinear models. In this paper, we propose a novel application of a nonlinear measure of phase synchronization based on recurrences, correlation between probabilities of recurrence (CPR), to study seizures in the brain. The advantage of this nonparametric method is that it makes very few assumptions thus making it possible to investigate brain functioning in a data-driven way. We have demonstrated the utility of CPR measure for the study of phase synchronization in multichannel seizure EEG recorded from patients with global as well as focal epilepsy. For the case of global epilepsy, brain synchronization using thresholded CPR matrix of multichannel EEG signals showed clear differences in results obtained for epileptic seizure and pre-seizure. Brain headmaps obtained for seizure and preseizure cases provide meaningful insights about synchronization in the brain in those states. The headmap in the case of focal epilepsy clearly enables us to identify the focus of the epilepsy which provides certain diagnostic value. Comparative studies with linear correlation have shown that the nonlinear measure CPR outperforms the linear correlation measure. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compiler/Runtime Framework for Dynamic Dataflow Parallelization of Tiled Programs

Task-parallel languages are increasingly popular. Many of them provide expressive mechanisms for intertask synchronization. For example, OpenMP 4.0 will integrate data-driven execution semantics derived from the StarSs research language. Compared to the more restrictive data-parallel and fork-join concurrency models, the advanced features being introduced into task-parallelmodels in turn enable improved scalability through load balancing, memory latency hiding, mitigation of the pressure on memory bandwidth, and, as a side effect, reduced power consumption. In this article, we develop a systematic approach to compile loop nests into concurrent, dynamically constructed graphs of dependent tasks. We propose a simple and effective heuristic that selects the most profitable parallelization idiom for every dependence type and communication pattern. This heuristic enables the extraction of interband parallelism (cross-barrier parallelism) in a number of numerical computations that range from linear algebra to structured grids and image processing. The proposed static analysis and code generation alleviates the burden of a full-blown dependence resolver to track the readiness of tasks at runtime. We evaluate our approach and algorithms in the PPCG compiler, targeting OpenStream, a representative dataflow task-parallel language with explicit intertask dependences and a lightweight runtime. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

Image reconstruction from incomplete projections data: A multiresolution modeling approach

Computerized tomography is an imaging technique which produces cross sectional map of an object from its line integrals. Image reconstruction algorithms require collection of line integrals covering the whole measurement range. However, in many practical situations part of projection data is inaccurately measured or not measured at all. In such incomplete projection data situations, conventional image reconstruction algorithms like the convolution back projection algorithm (CBP) and the Fourier reconstruction algorithm, assuming the projection data to be complete, produce degraded images. In this paper, a multiresolution multiscale modeling using the wavelet transform coefficients of projections is proposed for projection completion. The missing coefficients are then predicted based on these models at each scale followed by inverse wavelet transform to obtain the estimated projection data.

Spatial Data Mining and Modeling for visualisation of Rapid Urbanisation

Rapid urbanisation in India has posed serious challenges to the decision makers in regional planning involving plethora of issues including provision of basic amenities (like electricity, water, sanitation, transport, etc.). Urban planning entails an understanding of landscape and urban dynamics with causal factors. Identifying, delineating and mapping landscapes on temporal scale provide an opportunity to monitor the changes, which is important for natural resource management and sustainable planning activities. Multi-source, multi-sensor, multi-temporal, multi-frequency or multi-polarization remote sensing data with efficient classification algorithms and pattern recognition techniques aid in capturing these dynamics. This paper analyses the landscape dynamics of Greater Bangalore by: (i) characterisation of direct impervious surface, (ii) computation of forest fragmentation indices and (iii) modeling to quantify and categorise urban changes. Linear unmixing is used for solving the mixed pixel problem of coarse resolution super spectral MODIS data for impervious surface characterisation. Fragmentation indices were used to classify forests – interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch and undetermined. Based on this, urban growth model was developed to determine the type of urban growth – Infill, Expansion and Outlying growth. This helped in visualising urban growth poles and consequence of earlier policy decisions that can help in evolving strategies for effective land use policies.

Rack Level Modeling of Air Flow Through Perforated Tile in a Data Center

Effective air flow distribution through perforated tiles is required to efficiently cool servers in a raised floor data center. We present detailed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of air flow through a perforated tile and its entrance to the adjacent server rack. The realistic geometrical details of the perforated tile, as well as of the rack are included in the model. Generally, models for air flow through perforated tiles specify a step pressure loss across the tile surface, or porous jump model based on the tile porosity. An improvement to this includes a momentum source specification above the tile to simulate the acceleration of the air flow through the pores, or body force model. In both of these models, geometrical details of tile such as pore locations and shapes are not included. More details increase the grid size as well as the computational time. However, the grid refinement can be controlled to achieve balance between the accuracy and computational time. We compared the results from CFD using geometrical resolution with the porous jump and body force model solution as well as with the measured flow field using particle image velocimetry (PIV) experiments. We observe that including tile geometrical details gives better results as compared to elimination of tile geometrical details and specifying physical models across and above the tile surface. A modification to the body force model is also suggested and improved results were achieved.

Cybernetic Modeling Revisited: A Method for Inferring the Cybernetic Variables u(i) from Experimental Data

The cybernetic modeling framework for the growth of microorganisms provides for an elegant methodology to account for the unknown regulatory phenomena through the use of cybernetic variables for enzyme induction and activity. In this paper, we revisit the assumption of limited resources for enzyme induction (Sigma u(i) = 1) used in the cybernetic modeling framework by presenting a methodology for inferring the individual cybernetic variables u(i) from experimental data. We use this methodology to infer u(i) during the simultaneous consumption of glycerol and lactose by Escherichia coli and then model the fitness trade-offs involved in the recently discovered predictive regulation strategy of microorganisms.