A checking method for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment: case studies on three cities

The conventional Cornell's source-based approach of probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment (PSHA) has been employed all around the world, whilst many studies often rely on the use of computer packages such as FRISK (McGuire FRISK-a computer program for seismic risk analysis. Open-File Report 78-1007, United States Geological Survey, Department of Interior, Washington 1978) and SEISRISK III (Bender and Perkins SEISRISK III-a computer program for seismic hazard estimation, Bulletin 1772. United States Geological Survey, Department of Interior, Washington 1987). A ``black-box'' syndrome may be resulted if the user of the software does not have another simple and robust PSHA method that can be used to make comparisons. An alternative method for PSHA, namely direct amplitude-based (DAB) approach, has been developed as a heuristic and efficient method enabling users to undertake their own sanity checks on outputs from computer packages. This paper experiments the application of the DAB approach for three cities in China, Iran, and India, respectively, and compares with documented results computed by the source-based approach. Several insights regarding the procedure of conducting PSHA have also been obtained, which could be useful for future seismic-hazard studies.

Quenching of Meridional Circulation in Flux Transport Dynamo Models

Guided by the recent observational result that the meridional circulation of the Sun becomes weaker at the time of the sunspot maximum, we have included a parametric quenching of the meridional circulation in solar dynamo models such that the meridional circulation becomes weaker when the magnetic field at the base of the convection zone is stronger. We find that a flux transport solar dynamo tends to become unstable on including this quenching of meridional circulation if the diffusivity in the convection zone is less than about 2x10(11) cm(2) s(-1). The quenching of alpha, however, has a stabilizing effect and it is possible to stabilize a dynamo with low diffusivity with sufficiently strong alpha-quenching. For dynamo models with high diffusivity, the quenching of meridional circulation does not produce a large effect and the dynamo remains stable. We present a solar-like solution from a dynamo model with diffusivity 2.8x10(12) cm(2) s(-1) in which the quenching of meridional circulation makes the meridional circulation vary periodically with solar cycle as observed and does not have any other significant effect on the dynamo.

Polynomial Decompositions in Polynomial Time

Fix a prime p. Given a positive integer k, a vector of positive integers Delta = (Delta(1), Delta(2), ... , Delta(k)) and a function Gamma : F-p(k) -> F-p, we say that a function P : F-p(n) -> F-p is (k, Delta, Gamma)-structured if there exist polynomials P-1, P-2, ..., P-k : F-p(n) -> F-p with each deg(P-i) <= Delta(i) such that for all x is an element of F-p(n), P(x) = Gamma(P-1(x), P-2(x), ..., P-k(x)). For instance, an n-variate polynomial over the field Fp of total degree d factors nontrivially exactly when it is (2, (d - 1, d - 1), prod)- structured where prod(a, b) = a . b. We show that if p > d, then for any fixed k, Delta, Gamma, we can decide whether a given polynomial P(x(1), x(2), ..., x(n)) of degree d is (k, Delta, Gamma)-structured and if so, find a witnessing decomposition. The algorithm takes poly(n) time. Our approach is based on higher-order Fourier analysis.