Using long time series of agricultural-derived nitrates for estimating catchment transit times

The estimation of water and solute transit times in catchments is crucial for predicting the response of hydrosystems to external forcings (climatic or anthropogenic). The hydrogeochemical signatures of tracers (either natural or anthropogenic) in streams have been widely used to estimate transit times in catchments as they integrate the various processes at stake. However, most of these tracers are well suited for catchments with mean transit times lower than about 4-5 years. Since the second half of the 20th century, the intensification of agriculture led to a general increase of the nitrogen load in rivers. As nitrate is mainly transported by groundwater in agricultural catchments, this signal can be used to estimate transit times greater than several years, even if nitrate is not a conservative tracer. Conceptual hydrological models can be used to estimate catchment transit times provided their consistency is demonstrated, based on their ability to simulate the stream chemical signatures at various time scales and catchment internal processes such as N storage in groundwater. The objective of this study was to assess if a conceptual lumped model was able to simulate the observed patterns of nitrogen concentration, at various time scales, from seasonal to pluriannual and thus if it was relevant to estimate the nitrogen transit times in headwater catchments. A conceptual lumped model, representing shallow groundwater flow as two parallel linear stores with double porosity, and riparian processes by a constant nitrogen removal function, was applied on two paired agricultural catchments which belong to the Research Observatory ORE AgrHys. The Global Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach was used to estimate parameter values and uncertainties. The model performance was assessed on (i) its ability to simulate the contrasted patterns of stream flow and stream nitrate concentrations at seasonal and inter-annual time scales, (ii) its ability to simulate the patterns observed in groundwater at the same temporal scales, and (iii) the consistency of long-term simulations using the calibrated model and the general pattern of the nitrate concentration increase in the region since the beginning of the intensification of agriculture in the 1960s. The simulated nitrate transit times were found more sensitive to climate variability than to parameter uncertainty, and average values were found to be consistent with results from others studies in the same region involving modeling and groundwater dating. This study shows that a simple model can be used to simulate the main dynamics of nitrogen in an intensively polluted catchment and then be used to estimate the transit times of these pollutants in the system which is crucial to guide mitigation plans design and assessment. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds - A hierarchy in modelling: Part V. Models for the inner layer potential difference in the presence of dipolar adsorption

The relations for the inner layer potential &fference (E) in the presence of adsorbed orgamc molecules are derived for three hterarchlcal models, m terms of molecular constants like permanent &pole moments, polarlzablhtles, etc It is shown how the experimentally observed patterns of the E vs 0 plots (hnear m all ranges of $\sigma^M$, non-linear in one or both regions of o M, etc ) can be understood in a serm-quantltatlve manner from the simplest model in our hierarchy, viz the two-state site panty version Two-state multi-site and three-state (sxte panty) models are also analysed and the slope (3E/80),,M tabulated for these also The results for the Esm-Markov effect are denved for all the models and compared with the earlier result of Parsons. A comparison with the GSL phenomenologlcal equation is presented and its molecular basis, as well as the hmltatlons, is analysed. In partxcular, two-state multa-slte and three-state (site panty) models yield E-o M relations that are more general than the "umfied" GSL equation The posslblhty of vaewlng the compact layer as a "composite medium" with an "effective dlelectnc constant" and obtaimng novel phenomenological descnptions IS also indicated.

Hybrid moving block bootstrap for stochastic simulation of multi-site multi-season streamflows

The Hybrid approach introduced by the authors for at-site modeling of annual and periodic streamflows in earlier works is extended to simulate multi-site multi-season streamflows. It bears significance in integrated river basin planning studies. This hybrid model involves: (i) partial pre-whitening of standardized multi-season streamflows at each site using a parsimonious linear periodic model; (ii) contemporaneous resampling of the resulting residuals with an appropriate block size, using moving block bootstrap (non-parametric, NP) technique; and (iii) post-blackening the bootstrapped innovation series at each site, by adding the corresponding parametric model component for the site, to obtain generated streamflows at each of the sites. It gains significantly by effectively utilizing the merits of both parametric and NP models. It is able to reproduce various statistics, including the dependence relationships at both spatial and temporal levels without using any normalizing transformations and/or adjustment procedures. The potential of the hybrid model in reproducing a wide variety of statistics including the run characteristics, is demonstrated through an application for multi-site streamflow generation in the Upper Cauvery river basin, Southern India. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An ab-initio study of the proton affinity of conjugated schiff-base and related nitrogen compounds: an analysis of the triggering site of bacteriorhodopsin

The chemical groups which take part in the proton transfer reaction in bacteriorhodopsin have been studied by ab initio quantum chemical methods. The various factors such as conjugation with a linear system, electron delocalization of the guanidine type, cis-trans isomerism, geometry distortion and hydrogen bonding with charged groups can influence the properties of a given chemical group. Several systems are studied at 4-31G and STO-3G levels. Some of the Schiff-base analogues and guanidine type molecules are characterized by their molecular orbital diagrams, energy levels and the nature of charge distribution. Also, the effects of the above-mentioned factors on proton affinity are studied. It is hoped that the values thus obtained can be helpful in evaluating various structural models for proton transfer.

Statistical thermodynamics of lattice models in zeolites: Implications of local versus global mean field interactions

The statistical thermodynamics of adsorption in caged zeolites is developed by treating the zeolite as an ensemble of M identical cages or subsystems. Within each cage adsorption is assumed to occur onto a lattice of n identical sites. Expressions for the average occupancy per cage are obtained by minimizing the Helmholtz free energy in the canonical ensemble subject to the constraints of constant M and constant number of adsorbates N. Adsorbate-adsorbate interactions in the Brag-Williams or mean field approximation are treated in two ways. The local mean field approximation (LMFA) is based on the local cage occupancy and the global mean field approximation (GMFA) is based on the average coverage of the ensemble. The GMFA is shown to be equivalent in formulation to treating the zeolite as a collection of interacting single site subsystems. In contrast, the treatment in the LMFA retains the description of the zeolite as an ensemble of identical cages, whose thermodynamic properties are conveniently derived in the grand canonical ensemble. For a z coordinated lattice within the zeolite cage, with epsilon(aa) as the adsorbate-adsorbate interaction parameter, the comparisons for different values of epsilon(aa)(*)=epsilon(aa)z/2kT, and number of sites per cage, n, illustrate that for -1 0. We compare the isotherms predicted with the LMFA with previous GMFA predictions [K. G. Ayappa, C. R. Kamala, and T. A. Abinandanan, J. Chem. Phys. 110, 8714 (1999)] (which incorporates both the site volume reduction and a coverage-dependent epsilon(aa)) for xenon and methane in zeolite NaA. In all cases the predicted isotherms are very similar, with the exception of a small steplike feature present in the LMFA for xenon at higher coverages. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-9606(99)70333-8].

Assessing future rainfall projections using multiple GCMs and a multi-site stochastic downscaling model

Impact of global warming on daily rainfall is examined using atmospheric variables from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and a stochastic downscaling model. Daily rainfall at eleven raingauges over Malaprabha catchment of India and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data at grid points over the catchment for a continuous time period 1971-2000 (current climate) are used to calibrate the downscaling model. The downscaled rainfall simulations obtained using GCM atmospheric variables corresponding to the IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 emission scenario for the same period are used to validate the results. Following this, future downscaled rainfall projections are constructed and examined for two 20 year time slices viz. 2055 (i.e. 2046-2065) and 2090 (i.e. 2081-2100). The model results show reasonable skill in simulating the rainfall over the study region for the current climate. The downscaled rainfall projections indicate no significant changes in the rainfall regime in this catchment in the future. More specifically, 2% decrease by 2055 and 5% decrease by 2090 in monsoon (HAS) rainfall compared to the current climate (1971-2000) under global warming conditions are noticed. Also, pre-monsoon (JFMAM) and post-monsoon (OND) rainfall is projected to increase respectively, by 2% in 2055 and 6% in 2090 and, 2% in 2055 and 12% in 2090, over the region. On annual basis slight decreases of 1% and 2% are noted for 2055 and 2090, respectively.

AEROSAT - a space-borne sensor for continental aerosols: evaluation of the conceptual model

Even though satellite observations are the most effective means to gather global information in a short span of time, the challenges in this field still remain over continental landmass, despite most of the aerosol sources being land-based. This is a hurdle in global and regional aerosol climate forcing assessment. Retrieval of aerosol properties over land is complicated due to irregular terrain characteristics and the high and largely uncertain surface reflection which acts as `noise' to the much smaller amount of radiation scattered by aerosols, which is the `signal'. In this paper, we describe a satellite sensor the - `Aerosol Satellite (AEROSAT)', which is capable of retrieving aerosols over land with much more accuracy and reduced dependence on models. The sensor, utilizing a set of multi-spectral and multi-angle measurements of polarized components of radiation reflected from the Earth's surface, along with measurements of thermal infrared broadband radiance, results in a large reduction of the `noise' component (compared to the `signal). A conceptual engineering model of AEROSAT has been designed, developed and used to measure the land-surface features in the visible spectral band. Analysing the received signals using a polarization radiative transfer approach, we demonstrate the superiority of this method. It is expected that satellites carrying sensors following the AEROSAT concept would be `self-sufficient', to obtain all the relevant information required for aerosol retrieval from its own measurements.

Assessing resilience and state-transition models with historical records of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in North American sagebrush-steppe

1. Resilience-based approaches are increasingly being called upon to inform ecosystem management, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This requires management frameworks that can assess ecosystem dynamics, both within and between alternative states, at relevant time scales. 2. We analysed long-term vegetation records from two representative sites in the North American sagebrush-steppe ecosystem, spanning nine decades, to determine if empirical patterns were consistent with resilience theory, and to determine if cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion led to thresholds as currently envisioned by expert-based state-and-transition models (STM). These data span the entire history of cheatgrass invasion at these sites and provide a unique opportunity to assess the impacts of biotic invasion on ecosystem resilience. 3. We used univariate and multivariate statistical tools to identify unique plant communities and document the magnitude, frequency and directionality of community transitions through time. Community transitions were characterized by 37-47% dissimilarity in species composition, they were not evenly distributed through time, their frequency was not correlated with precipitation, and they could not be readily attributed to fire or grazing. Instead, at both sites, the majority of community transitions occurred within an 8-10year period of increasing cheatgrass density, became infrequent after cheatgrass density peaked, and thereafter transition frequency declined. 4. Greater cheatgrass density, replacement of native species and indication of asymmetry in community transitions suggest that thresholds may have been exceeded in response to cheatgrass invasion at one site (more arid), but not at the other site (less arid). Asymmetry in the direction of community transitions also identified communities that were at-risk' of cheatgrass invasion, as well as potential restoration pathways for recovery of pre-invasion states. 5. Synthesis and applications. These results illustrate the complexities associated with threshold identification, and indicate that criteria describing the frequency, magnitude, directionality and temporal scale of community transitions may provide greater insight into resilience theory and its application for ecosystem management. These criteria are likely to vary across biogeographic regions that are susceptible to cheatgrass invasion, and necessitate more in-depth assessments of thresholds and alternative states, than currently available.

Quantum Phase Diagram of One-Dimensional Spin and Hubbard Models with Transitions to Bond Order Wave Phases

Similar quantum phase diagrams and transitions are found for three classes of one-dimensional models with equally spaced sites, singlet ground states (GS), inversion symmetry at sites and a bond order wave (BOW) phase in some sectors. The models are frustrated spin-1/2 chains with variable range exchange, half-filled Hubbard models with spin-independent interactions and modified Hubbard models with site energies for describing organic charge transfer salts. In some range of parameters, the models have a first order quantum transition at which the GS expectation value of the sublattice spin < S-A(2)> of odd or even-numbered sites is discontinuous. There is an intermediate BOW phase for other model parameters that lead to two continuous quantum transitions with continuous < S-A(2)>. Exact diagonalization of finite systems and symmetry arguments provide a unified picture of familiar 1D models that have appeared separately in widely different contexts.

Quantum Phase Diagram of One-Dimensional Spin and Hubbard Models with Transitions to Bond Order Wave Phases

Similar quantum phase diagrams and transitions are found for three classes of one-dimensional models with equally spaced sites, singlet ground states (GS), inversion symmetry at sites and a bond order wave (BOW) phase in some sectors. The models are frustrated spin-1/2 chains with variable range exchange, half-filled Hubbard models with spin-independent interactions and modified Hubbard models with site energies for describing organic charge transfer salts. In some range of parameters, the models have a first order quantum transition at which the GS expectation value of the sublattice spin < S-A(2)> of odd or even-numbered sites is discontinuous. There is an intermediate BOW phase for other model parameters that lead to two continuous quantum transitions with continuous < S-A(2)>. Exact diagonalization of finite systems and symmetry arguments provide a unified picture of familiar 1D models that have appeared separately in widely different contexts.

Multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature using support vector machine

Climate change impact assessment studies involve downscaling large-scale atmospheric predictor variables (LSAPVs) simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to site-scale meteorological variables. This article presents a least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM)-based methodology for multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature series. The methodology involves (1) delineation of sites in the study area into clusters based on correlation structure of predictands, (2) downscaling LSAPVs to monthly time series of predictands at a representative site identified in each of the clusters, (3) translation of the downscaled information in each cluster from the representative site to that at other sites using LS-SVM inter-site regression relationships, and (4) disaggregation of the information at each site from monthly to daily time scale using k-nearest neighbour disaggregation methodology. Effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by application to data pertaining to four sites in the catchment of Beas river basin, India. Simulations of Canadian coupled global climate model (CGCM3.1/T63) for four IPCC SRES scenarios namely A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT were downscaled to future projections of the predictands in the study area. Comparison of results with those based on recently proposed multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) based downscaling method and multi-site multivariate statistical downscaling (MMSD) method indicate that the proposed method is promising and it can be considered as a feasible choice in statistical downscaling studies. The performance of the method in downscaling daily minimum temperature was found to be better when compared with that in downscaling daily maximum temperature. Results indicate an increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures at all the sites for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The projected increment is high for A2 scenario, and it is followed by that for A1B, B1 and COMMIT scenarios. Projections, in general, indicated an increase in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures during January to February and October to December.

Use of Data Driven Techniques for Short Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting in Mahanadi basin

Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.