Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states

Northeast India is one of the most highly seismically active regions in the world with more than seven earthquakes on an average per year of magnitude 5.0 and above. Reliable seismic hazard assessment could provide the necessary design inputs for earthquake resistant design of structures in this' region. In this study, deterministic as well as probabilistic methods have been attempted for seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states at bedrock level condition. An updated earthquake catalogue was collected from various national and international seismological agencies for the period from 1731 to 2011. The homogenization, declustering and data completeness analysis of events have been carried out before hazard evaluation. Seismicity parameters have been estimated using G R relationship for each source zone. Based on the seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major subzones. Region specific correlations were used for magnitude conversion for homogenization of earthquake size. Ground motion equations (Atkinson and Boore 2003; Gupta 2010) were validated with the observed PGA (peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. In this study, the hazard is estimated using linear sources, identified in and around the study area. Results are presented in the form of PGA using both DSHA (deterministic seismic hazard analysis) and PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) with 2 and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, and spectral acceleration (T = 0. 2 s, 1.0 s) for both the states (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years). The results are important to provide inputs for planning risk reduction strategies, for developing risk acceptance criteria and financial analysis for possible damages in the study area with a comprehensive analysis and higher resolution hazard mapping.

Damage assessment of basaltic rock mass due to repeated blasting in a railway tunnelling project - A case study

The demand for tunnelling and underground space creation is rapidly growing due to the requirement of civil infrastructure projects and urbanisation. Blasting remains the most inexpensive method of underground excavations in hard rock. Unfortunately, there are no specific safety guidelines available for the blasted tunnels with regards to the threshold limits of vibrations caused by repeated blasting activity in the close proximity. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive study conducted to find out the effect of repeated blast loading on the damage experienced by jointed basaltic rock mass during tunnelling works. Conducting of multiple rounds of blasts for various civil excavations in a railway tunnel imparted repeated loading on rock mass of sidewall and roof of the tunnel. The blast induced damage was assessed by using vibration attenuation equations of charge weight scaling law and measured by borehole extensometers and borehole camera. Ground vibrations of each blasting round were also monitored by triaxial geophones installed near the borehole extensometers. The peak particle velocity (V-max) observations and plastic deformations from borehole extensometers were used to develop a site specific damage model. The study reveals that repeated dynamic loading imparted on the exposed tunnel from subsequent blasts, in the vicinity, resulted in rock mass damage at lesser vibration levels than the critical peak particle velocity (V-cr). It was found that, the repeated blast loading resulted in the near-field damage due to high frequency waves and far-field damage due to low frequency waves. The far field damage, after 45-50 occurrences of blast loading, was up to 55% of the near-field damage in basaltic rock mass. The findings of the study clearly indicate that the phenomena of repeated blasting with respect to number of cycles of loading should be taken into consideration for proper assessment of blast induced damage in underground excavations.

Study on ride comfort assessment of multiple occupants using lumped parameter analysis

Growing consumer expectations continue to fuel further advancements in vehicle ride comfort analysis including development of a comprehensive tool capable of aiding the understanding of ride comfort. To date, most of the work on biodynamic responses of human body in the context of ride comfort mainly concentrates on driver or a designated occupant and therefore leaves the scope for further work on ride comfort analysis covering a larger number of occupants with detailed modeling of their body segments. In the present study, governing equations of a 13-DOF (degrees-of-freedom) lumped parameter model (LPM) of a full car with seats (7-DOF without seats) and a 7-DOF occupant model, a linear version of an earlier non-linear occupant model, are presented. One or more occupant models can be coupled with the vehicle model resulting into a maximum of 48-DOF LPM for a car with five occupants. These multi-occupant models can be formulated in a modular manner and solved efficiently using MATLAB/SIMULINK for a given transient road input. The vehicle model and the occupant model are independently verified by favorably comparing computed dynamic responses with published data. A number of cases with different dispositions of occupants in a small car are analyzed using the current modular approach thereby underscoring its potential for efficient ride quality assessment and design of suspension systems.