A delphi study on health in future India

PIP: A delphi study was conducted to identify or envision health scenarios in India by the year 2000. Questionnaires consisting of 48 questions on 5 areas (diagnosis and therapy; family planning; pharmaceuticals and drugs; biochemical and biomedical research; health services) were mailed to 250 experts in India. 36 responded. Results were compiled and mailed back to the respondents for changes and comments. 17 people responded. Results of the delphi study shows that policy decisions with respect to compulsory family planning as well as health education at secondary school level will precede further breakthroughs in birth control technology. Non operation reversible sterilization procedures, immunological birth control, Ayurvedic medicines for contraception and abortion, and selection of baby's sex are all possible by 2000 thereafter. Complete eradication of infectious diseases, malnutrition and associated diseases is considered unlikely before 2000, as are advances in biomedical research. Changes in health services (e.g., significant increases in hospital beds and doctors, cheap bulk drugs), particularly in rural areas, are imminent, leading to prolonging of life expectancy to 70 years. Genetic engineering may provide significant breakthroughs in the prevention of malignancies and cardiac disorders. The India delphi study is patterned after a similar delphi study conducted in the U.S. by Smith, Kline and French (SKF) Laboratories in 1968. The SKF study was able to predict some breakthroughs with basic research which have been realized.

A Study on the Success Potential of Multiple Mobile Payment Technologies

Payment systems all over the world have grown into a complicated web of solutions. This is more challenging in the case of mobile based payment systems. Mobile based payment systems are many and consist of different technologies providing different services. The diffusion of these various technologies in a market is uncertain. Diffusion theorists, for example Rogers, and Davis suggest how innovation is accepted in markets. In the case of electronic payment systems, the tale of Mondex vs Octopus throws interesting insights on diffusion. Our paper attempts to understand the success potential of various mobile payment technologies. We illustrate what we describe as technology breadth in mobile payment systems using data from payment systems all over the world (n=62). Our data shows an unexpected superiority of SMS technology, over other technologies like NFC, WAP and others. We also used a Delphi based survey (n=5) with experts to address the possibility that SMS will gain superiority in market diffusion. The economic conditions of a country, particularly in developing countries, the services availed and characteristics of the user (for example number of un-banked users in large populated countries) may put SMS in the forefront. This may be true more for micro payments using the mobile.