Methodology for Pavement Design Reliability and Back Analysis Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

Given the increasing cost of designing and building new highway pavements, reliability analysis has become vital to ensure that a given pavement performs as expected in the field. Recognizing the importance of failure analysis to safety, reliability, performance, and economy, back analysis has been employed in various engineering applications to evaluate the inherent uncertainties of the design and analysis. The probabilistic back analysis method formulated on Bayes' theorem and solved using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm has proved to be highly efficient to address this issue. It is also quite flexible and is applicable to any type of prior information. In this paper, this method has been used to back-analyze the parameters that influence the pavement life and to consider the uncertainty of the mechanistic-empirical pavement design model. The load-induced pavement structural responses (e.g., stresses, strains, and deflections) used to predict the pavement life are estimated using the response surface methodology model developed based on the results of linear elastic analysis. The failure criteria adopted for the analysis were based on the factor of safety (FOS), and the study was carried out for different sample sizes and jumping distributions to estimate the most robust posterior statistics. From the posterior statistics of the case considered, it was observed that after approximately 150 million standard axle load repetitions, the mean values of the pavement properties decrease as expected, with a significant decrease in the values of the elastic moduli of the expected layers. An analysis of the posterior statistics indicated that the parameters that contribute significantly to the pavement failure were the moduli of the base and surface layer, which is consistent with the findings from other studies. After the back analysis, the base modulus parameters show a significant decrease of 15.8% and the surface layer modulus a decrease of 3.12% in the mean value. The usefulness of the back analysis methodology is further highlighted by estimating the design parameters for specified values of the factor of safety. The analysis revealed that for the pavement section considered, a reliability of 89% and 94% can be achieved by adopting FOS values of 1.5 and 2, respectively. The methodology proposed can therefore be effectively used to identify the parameters that are critical to pavement failure in the design of pavements for specified levels of reliability. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000455. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Updating reliability models of statically loaded instrumented structures

The study extends the first order reliability method (FORM) and inverse FORM to update reliability models for existing, statically loaded structures based on measured responses. Solutions based on Bayes' theorem, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, and inverse reliability analysis are developed. The case of linear systems with Gaussian uncertainties and linear performance functions is shown to be exactly solvable. FORM and inverse reliability based methods are subsequently developed to deal with more general problems. The proposed procedures are implemented by combining Matlab based reliability modules with finite element models residing on the Abaqus software. Numerical illustrations on linear and nonlinear frames are presented. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increasing System Capacity in Uplink Multiuser MIMO Using Sparsity Exploiting Receiver

In multiuser communication on the uplink, all subscribed users may not be active simultaneously. This leads to sparsity in the activity pattern in the users' transmissions, which can be exploited in the multiuser MIMO receiver at the base station (BS). Because of no transmissions from inactive users, joint detection at the BS has to consider an augmented signal set that includes zero. In this paper, we propose a receiver that exploits this inactivity-induced sparsity and considers the zero-augmented signal set. The proposed receiver is based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. Near-optimal performance and increased system capacity (in terms of number of users in the system) are demonstrated. For example, a multiuser MIMO system with N = 32 receive antennas at the BS and an user activity factor of 0.2 supports 51 uplink users meeting a QoS of 10(-3) coded bit error rate.

Near-optimal large-MIMO detection using randomized MCMC and randomized search algorithms

Low-complexity near-optimal detection of signals in MIMO systems with large number (tens) of antennas is getting increased attention. In this paper, first, we propose a variant of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm which i) alleviates the stalling problem encountered in conventional MCMC algorithm at high SNRs, and ii) achieves near-optimal performance for large number of antennas (e.g., 16×16, 32×32, 64×64 MIMO) with 4-QAM. We call this proposed algorithm as randomized MCMC (R-MCMC) algorithm. Second, we propose an other algorithm based on a random selection approach to choose candidate vectors to be tested in a local neighborhood search. This algorithm, which we call as randomized search (RS) algorithm, also achieves near-optimal performance for large number of antennas with 4-QAM. The complexities of the proposed R-MCMC and RS algorithms are quadratic/sub-quadratic in number of transmit antennas, which are attractive for detection in large-MIMO systems. We also propose message passing aided R-MCMC and RS algorithms, which are shown to perform well for higher-order QAM.

A novel MCMC algorithm for near-optimal detection in large-scale uplink mulituser MIMO systems

In this paper, we propose a low-complexity algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for signal detection on the uplink in large scale multiuser multiple input multiple output (MIMO) systems with tens to hundreds of antennas at the base station (BS) and similar number of uplink users. The algorithm employs a randomized sampling method (which makes a probabilistic choice between Gibbs sampling and random sampling in each iteration) for detection. The proposed algorithm alleviates the stalling problem encountered at high SNRs in conventional MCMC algorithm and achieves near-optimal performance in large systems with M-QAM. A novel ingredient in the algorithm that is responsible for achieving near-optimal performance at low complexities is the joint use of a randomized MCMC (R-MCMC) strategy coupled with a multiple restart strategy with an efficient restart criterion. Near-optimal detection performance is demonstrated for large number of BS antennas and users (e.g., 64, 128, 256 BS antennas/users).

Bayesian parameter identification in dynamic state space models using modified measurement equations

When Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers are used in problems of system parameter identification, one would face computational difficulties in dealing with large amount of measurement data and (or) low levels of measurement noise. Such exigencies are likely to occur in problems of parameter identification in dynamical systems when amount of vibratory measurement data and number of parameters to be identified could be large. In such cases, the posterior probability density function of the system parameters tends to have regions of narrow supports and a finite length MCMC chain is unlikely to cover pertinent regions. The present study proposes strategies based on modification of measurement equations and subsequent corrections, to alleviate this difficulty. This involves artificial enhancement of measurement noise, assimilation of transformed packets of measurements, and a global iteration strategy to improve the choice of prior models. Illustrative examples cover laboratory studies on a time variant dynamical system and a bending-torsion coupled, geometrically non-linear building frame under earthquake support motions. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monte-Carlo estimation of time-dependent statistical characteristics of random dynamical systems

The problem of estimating the time-dependent statistical characteristics of a random dynamical system is studied under two different settings. In the first, the system dynamics is governed by a differential equation parameterized by a random parameter, while in the second, this is governed by a differential equation with an underlying parameter sequence characterized by a continuous time Markov chain. We propose, for the first time in the literature, stochastic approximation algorithms for estimating various time-dependent process characteristics of the system. In particular, we provide efficient estimators for quantities such as the mean, variance and distribution of the process at any given time as well as the joint distribution and the autocorrelation coefficient at different times. A novel aspect of our approach is that we assume that information on the parameter model (i.e., its distribution in the first case and transition probabilities of the Markov chain in the second) is not available in either case. This is unlike most other work in the literature that assumes availability of such information. Also, most of the prior work in the literature is geared towards analyzing the steady-state system behavior of the random dynamical system while our focus is on analyzing the time-dependent statistical characteristics which are in general difficult to obtain. We prove the almost sure convergence of our stochastic approximation scheme in each case to the true value of the quantity being estimated. We provide a general class of strongly consistent estimators for the aforementioned statistical quantities with regular sample average estimators being a specific instance of these. We also present an application of the proposed scheme on a widely used model in population biology. Numerical experiments in this framework show that the time-dependent process characteristics as obtained using our algorithm in each case exhibit excellent agreement with exact results. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Markov chain splitting methods in structural reliability integral estimation

Monte Carlo simulation methods involving splitting of Markov chains have been used in evaluation of multi-fold integrals in different application areas. We examine in this paper the performance of these methods in the context of evaluation of reliability integrals from the point of view of characterizing the sampling fluctuations. The methods discussed include the Au-Beck subset simulation, Holmes-Diaconis-Ross method, and generalized splitting algorithm. A few improvisations based on first order reliability method are suggested to select algorithmic parameters of the latter two methods. The bias and sampling variance of the alternative estimators are discussed. Also, an approximation to the sampling distribution of some of these estimators is obtained. Illustrative examples involving component and series system reliability analyses are presented with a view to bring out the relative merits of alternative methods. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo simulation of Ising chains showing several phase transitions

A Monte Carlo simulation of Ising chains with competing short-range and infiniterange interactions has been carried out. Results show that whenever the system does not enter a metastable state, variation of temperature brings about phase transitions in the Ising chain. These phase transitions, except for two sets of interaction strengths, are generally of higher order and involve changes in the long-range order while the short-range order remains unaffected.

Markov Chain Model for Cracking Behavior of Reinforced Concrete Beams

In this paper, nonhomogeneous Markov chains are proposed for modeling the cracking behavior of reinforced concrete beams subjected to monotonically increasing loads. The model facilitates prediction of the maximum crackwidth at a given load given the crackwidth at a lower load level, and thus leads to a better understanding of the cracking phenomenon. To illustrate the methodology developed, the results of three reinforced concrete beams tested in the laboratory are analyzed and presented.

Orientational glassy phases of C60 and neopentane. A Monte Carlo study

Based on an isothermal, isobaric simulation the structure and properties of the plastic crystalline phases of C60 and neopentane have been examined. Instantaneous cooling of the plastic crystalline phases of both C60 and neopentane leads to orientational glassy phases. These are accompanied by significant slowing down of reorientational motion. Constant pressure quench experiments on C60 yield a glass transition temperature of around 80 K.

Role of molecular reorientation in the vitrification of molecular liquids: A Monte Carlo study of the liquid and glassy states of 2,2-dimethylbutane

The liquid and the glassy phases of 2,2-dimethylbutane have been investigated by isothermal isobaric ensemble Monte Carlo simulation. Thermodynamic Properties and radial distribution functions for both the liquid and the glass have been obtained. The radial distribution functions have been classified into three types based on the accessibility of the group. It has been shown that the structure of the Iiquid and the glass can be understood in terms of the above classification of the radial distribution functions. Molecular reorientation plays an important role in the structural rearrangement accompanying glass formation. As much as 35% of the contribution to the increase in the intermolecular interaction energy on vitrification is due to the reorientation of the neighbouring pairs of molecules. The observed changes in the dimerisation energy and the bonding energy distribution function are consistent with the observed structural changes.

Hydrogen Storage Capacity of Carbon-Foams: Grand Canonical Monte Carlo Simulations

Hydrogen storage in the three-dimensional carbon foams is analyzed using classical grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations. The calculated storage capacities of the foams meet the material-based DOE targets and are comparable to the capacities of a bundle of well-separated similar diameter open nanotubes. The pore sizes in the foams are optimized for the best hydrogen uptake. The capacity depends sensitively on the C-H-2 interaction potential, and therefore, the results are presented for its ``weak'' and ``strong'' choices, to offer the lower and upper bounds for the expected capacities. Furthermore, quantum effects on the effective C-H-2 as well as H-2-H-2 interaction potentials are considered. We find that the quantum effects noticeably change the adsorption properties of foams and must be accounted for even at room temperature.