Target reliability-based optimisation for internal seismic stability of reinforced soil structures

In this paper, an approach for target component and system reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) to evaluate safety for the internal seismic stability of geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) structures is presented. Three modes of failure are considered: tension failure of the bottom-most layer of reinforcement, pullout failure of the topmost layer of reinforcement, and total pullout failure of all reinforcement layers. The analysis is performed by treating backfill properties, geometric and strength properties of reinforcement as random variables. The optimum number of reinforcement layers and optimum pullout length needed to maintain stability against tension failure, pullout failure and total pullout failure for different coefficients of variation of friction angle of the backfill, design strength of the reinforcement and horizontal seismic acceleration coefficients by targeting various system reliability indices are proposed. The results provide guidelines for the total length of reinforcement required, considering the variability of backfill as well as seismic coefficients. One illustrative example is presented to explain the evaluation of reliability for internal stability of reinforced soil structures using the proposed approach. In the second illustration (the stability of five walls), the Kushiro wall subjected to the Kushiro-Oki earthquake, the Seiken wall subjected to the Chiba-ken Toho-Oki earthquake, the Ta Kung wall subjected to the Ji-Ji earthquake, and the Gould and Valencia walls subjected to Northridge earthquake are re-examined.

The Broad-Line Type Ic Supernoava SN 2007ru: Adding To The Diversity Of Type Ic Supernovae

Photometric and spectral evolution of the Type Ic supernova SN 2007ru until around 210 days after maximum are presented. The spectra show broad spectral features due to very high expansion velocity, normally seen in hypernovae. The photospheric velocity is higher than other normal Type Ic supernovae (SNe Ic). It is lower than SN 1998bw at similar to 8 days after the explosion, but is comparable at later epochs. The light curve (LC) evolution of SN 2007ru indicates a fast rise time of 8 +/- 3 days to B-band maximum and postmaximum decline more rapid than other broad-line SNe Ic. With an absolute V magnitude of -19.06, SN 2007ru is comparable in brightness with SN 1998bw and lies at the brighter end of the observed SNe Ic. The ejected mass of Ni-56 is estimated to be similar to 0.4 M-circle dot. The fast rise and decline of the LC and the high expansion velocity suggest that SN 2007ru is an explosion with a high kinetic energy/ejecta mass ratio (E-K/M-ej). This adds to the diversity of SNe Ic. Although the early phase spectra are most similar to those of broad-line SN 2003jd, the [O I] line profile in the nebular spectrum of SN 2007ru shows the singly peaked profile, in contrast to the doubly peaked profile in SN 2003jd. The singly peaked profile, together with the high luminosity and the high expansion velocity, may suggest that SN 2007ru could be an aspherical explosion viewed from the polar direction. Estimated oxygen abundance 12 + log(O/H) of similar to 8.8 indicates that SN 2007ru occurred in a region with nearly solar metallicity.

Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0)

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 decrease stomatal conductance of plants and thus suppress canopy transpiration. The climate response to this CO2-physiological forcing is investigated using the Community Atmosphere Model version 3.1 coupled to Community Land Model version 3.0. In response to the physiological effect of doubling CO2, simulations show a decrease in canopy transpiration of 8%, a mean warming of 0.1K over the land surface, and negligible changes in the hydrological cycle. These climate responses are much smaller than what were found in previous modeling studies. This is largely a result of unrealistic partitioning of evapotranspiration in our model control simulation with a greatly underestimated contribution from canopy transpiration and overestimated contributions from canopy and soil evaporation. This study highlights the importance of a realistic simulation of the hydrological cycle, especially the individual components of evapotranspiration, in reducing the uncertainty in our estimation of climatic response to CO2-physiological forcing. Citation: Cao, L., G. Bala, K. Caldeira, R. Nemani, and G.Ban-Weiss (2009), Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0).

Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing to future climate change

An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration influences climate both directly through its radiative effect (i.e., trapping longwave radiation) and indirectly through its physiological effect (i.e., reducing transpiration of land plants). Here we compare the climate response to radiative and physiological effects of increased CO2 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled Community Land and Community Atmosphere Model. In response to a doubling of CO2, the radiative effect of CO2 causes mean surface air temperature over land to increase by 2.86 ± 0.02 K (± 1 standard error), whereas the physiological effects of CO2 on land plants alone causes air temperature over land to increase by 0.42 ± 0.02 K. Combined, these two effects cause a land surface warming of 3.33 ± 0.03 K. The radiative effect of doubling CO2 increases global runoff by 5.2 ± 0.6%, primarily by increasing precipitation over the continents. The physiological effect increases runoff by 8.4 ± 0.6%, primarily by diminishing evapotranspiration from the continents. Combined, these two effects cause a 14.9 ± 0.7% increase in runoff. Relative humidity remains roughly constant in response to CO2-radiative forcing, whereas relative humidity over land decreases in response to CO2-physiological forcing as a result of reduced plant transpiration. Our study points to an emerging consensus that the physiological effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on land plants will increase global warming beyond that caused by the radiative effects of CO2.

Why is there a short-term increase in global precipitation in response to diminished CO2 forcing?

Recently, it was found that a reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to a temporary increase in global precipitation. We use the Hadley Center coupled atmosphere-ocean model, HadCM3L, to demonstrate that this precipitation increase is a consequence of precipitation sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations through fast tropospheric adjustment processes. Slow ocean cooling explains the longer-term decrease in precipitation. Increased CO2 tends to suppress evaporation/precipitation whereas increased temperatures tend to increase evaporation/precipitation. When the enhanced CO2 forcing is removed, global precipitation increases temporarily, but this increase is not observed when a similar negative radiative forcing is applied as a reduction of solar intensity. Therefore, transient precipitation increase following a reduction in CO2-radiative forcing is a consequence of the specific character of CO2 forcing and is not a general feature associated with decreases in radiative forcing. Citation: Cao, L., G. Bala, and K. Caldeira (2011), Why is there a short-term increase in global precipitation in response to diminished CO2 forcing?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06703, doi:10.1029/2011GL046713.

Albedo enhancement of marine clouds to counteract global warming: impacts on the hydrological cycle

Recent studies have shown that changes in solar radiation affect the hydrological cycle more strongly than equivalent CO(2) changes for the same change in global mean surface temperature. Thus, solar radiation management ``geoengineering'' proposals to completely offset global mean temperature increases by reducing the amount of absorbed sunlight might be expected to slow the global water cycle and reduce runoff over land. However, proposed countering of global warming by increasing the albedo of marine clouds would reduce surface solar radiation only over the oceans. Here, for an idealized scenario, we analyze the response of temperature and the hydrological cycle to increased reflection by clouds over the ocean using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. When cloud droplets are reduced in size over all oceans uniformly to offset the temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO(2), the global-mean precipitation and evaporation decreases by about 1.3% but runoff over land increases by 7.5% primarily due to increases over tropical land. In the model, more reflective marine clouds cool the atmospheric column over ocean. The result is a sinking motion over oceans and upward motion over land. We attribute the increased runoff over land to this increased upward motion over land when marine clouds are made more reflective. Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary albedo, offsetting mean global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents. However, we note that the changes in precipitation, evaporation and P-E are dominated by small but significant areas, and given the highly idealized nature of this study, a more thorough and broader assessment would be required for proposals of altering marine cloud properties on a large scale.

Climate forcing and response to idealized changes in surface latent and sensible heat

Land use and land cover changes affect the partitioning of latent and sensible heat, which impacts the broader climate system. Increased latent heat flux to the atmosphere has a local cooling influence known as `evaporative cooling', but this energy will be released back to the atmosphere wherever the water condenses. However, the extent to which local evaporative cooling provides a global cooling influence has not been well characterized. Here, we perform a highly idealized set of climate model simulations aimed at understanding the effects that changes in the balance between surface sensible and latent heating have on the global climate system. We find that globally adding a uniform 1 W m(-2) source of latent heat flux along with a uniform 1 W m(-2) sink of sensible heat leads to a decrease in global mean surface air temperature of 0.54 +/- 0.04 K. This occurs largely as a consequence of planetary albedo increases associated with an increase in low elevation cloudiness caused by increased evaporation. Thus, our model results indicate that, on average, when latent heating replaces sensible heating, global, and not merely local, surface temperatures decrease.

Dependence of climate forcing and response on the altitude of black carbon aerosols

Black carbon aerosols absorb solar radiation and decrease planetary albedo, and thus can contribute to climate warming. In this paper, the dependence of equilibrium climate response on the altitude of black carbon is explored using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. The simulations model aerosol direct and semi-direct effects, but not indirect effects. Aerosol concentrations are prescribed and not interactive. It is shown that climate response of black carbon is highly dependent on the altitude of the aerosol. As the altitude of black carbon increases, surface temperatures decrease; black carbon near the surface causes surface warming, whereas black carbon near the tropopause and in the stratosphere causes surface cooling. This cooling occurs despite increasing planetary absorption of sunlight (i.e. decreasing planetary albedo). We find that the trend in surface air temperature response versus the altitude of black carbon is consistent with our calculations of radiative forcing after the troposphere, stratosphere, and land surface have undergone rapid adjustment, calculated as ``regressed'' radiative forcing. The variation in climate response from black carbon at different altitudes occurs largely from different fast climate responses; temperature dependent feedbacks are not statistically distinguishable. Impacts of black carbon at various altitudes on the hydrological cycle are also discussed; black carbon in the lowest atmospheric layer increases precipitation despite reductions in solar radiation reaching the surface, whereas black carbon at higher altitudes decreases precipitation.

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve `health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks

Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO2 content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO2 warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO2 and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO2 versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed.

An estimate of equilibrium sensitivity of global terrestrial carbon cycle using NCAR CCSM4

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 influence climate, terrestrial biosphere productivity and ecosystem carbon storage through its radiative, physiological and fertilization effects. In this paper, we quantify these effects for a doubling of CO2 using a low resolution configuration of the coupled model NCAR CCSM4. In contrast to previous coupled climate-carbon modeling studies, we focus on the near-equilibrium response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. For a doubling of CO2, the radiative effect on the physical climate system causes global mean surface air temperature to increase by 2.14 K, whereas the physiological and fertilization on the land biosphere effects cause a warming of 0.22 K, suggesting that these later effects increase global warming by about 10 % as found in many recent studies. The CO2-fertilization leads to total ecosystem carbon gain of 371 Gt-C (28 %) while the radiative effect causes a loss of 131 Gt-C (10 %) indicating that climate warming damps the fertilization-induced carbon uptake over land. Our model-based estimate for the maximum potential terrestrial carbon uptake resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (285-570 ppm) is only 242 Gt-C. This highlights the limited storage capacity of the terrestrial carbon reservoir. We also find that the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity to changes in CO2 and temperature have been estimated to be lower in previous transient simulations because of lags in the climate-carbon system. Our model simulations indicate that the time scale of terrestrial carbon cycle response is greater than 500 years for CO2-fertilization and about 200 years for temperature perturbations. We also find that dynamic changes in vegetation amplify the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity relative to a static vegetation case: because of changes in tree cover, changes in total ecosystem carbon for CO2-direct and climate effects are amplified by 88 and 72 %, respectively, in simulations with dynamic vegetation when compared to static vegetation simulations.

Science of geoengineering

Carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of coal, oil, and gas are increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. These increased concentrations cause additional energy to be retained in Earth's climate system, thus increasing Earth's temperature. Various methods have been proposed to prevent this temperature increase either by reflecting to space sunlight that would otherwise warm Earth or by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Such intentional alteration of planetary-scale processes has been termed geoengineering. The first category of geoengineering method, solar geoengineering (also known as solar radiation management, or SRM), raises novel global-scale governance and environmental issues. Some SRM approaches are thought to be low in cost, so the scale of SRM deployment will likely depend primarily on considerations of risk. The second category of geoengineering method, carbon dioxide removal (CDR), raises issues related primarily to scale, cost, effectiveness, and local environmental consequences. The scale of CDR deployment will likely depend primarily on cost.

Modeling of solar radiation management: a comparison of simulations using reduced solar constant and stratospheric sulphate aerosols

The climatic effects of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) geoengineering have been often modeled by simply reducing the solar constant. This is most likely valid only for space sunshades and not for atmosphere and surface based SRM methods. In this study, a global climate model is used to evaluate the differences in the climate response to SRM by uniform solar constant reduction and stratospheric aerosols. Our analysis shows that when global mean warming from a doubling of CO2 is nearly cancelled by both these methods, they are similar when important surface and tropospheric climate variables are considered. However, a difference of 1 K in the global mean stratospheric (61-9.8 hPa) temperature is simulated between the two SRM methods. Further, while the global mean surface diffuse radiation increases by similar to 23 % and direct radiation decreases by about 9 % in the case of sulphate aerosol SRM method, both direct and diffuse radiation decrease by similar fractional amounts (similar to 1.0 %) when solar constant is reduced. When CO2 fertilization effects from elevated CO2 concentration levels are removed, the contribution from shaded leaves to gross primary productivity (GPP) increases by 1.8 % in aerosol SRM because of increased diffuse light. However, this increase is almost offset by a 15.2 % decline in sunlit contribution due to reduced direct light. Overall both the SRM simulations show similar decrease in GPP (similar to 8 %) and net primary productivity (similar to 3 %). Based on our results we conclude that the climate states produced by a reduction in solar constant and addition of aerosols into the stratosphere can be considered almost similar except for two important aspects: stratospheric temperature change and the consequent implications for the dynamics and the chemistry of the stratosphere and the partitioning of direct versus diffuse radiation reaching the surface. Further, the likely dependence of global hydrological cycle response on aerosol particle size and the latitudinal and height distribution of aerosols is discussed.

Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: A linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change

Climate change in response to a change in external forcing can be understood in terms of fast response to the imposed forcing and slow feedback associated with surface temperature change. Previous studies have investigated the characteristics of fast response and slow feedback for different forcing agents. Here we examine to what extent that fast response and slow feedback derived from time-mean results of climate model simulations can be used to infer total climate change. To achieve this goal, we develop a multivariate regression model of climate change, in which the change in a climate variable is represented by a linear combination of its sensitivity to CO2 forcing, solar forcing, and change in global mean surface temperature. We derive the parameters of the regression model using time-mean results from a set of HadCM3L climate model step-forcing simulations, and then use the regression model to emulate HadCM3L-simulated transient climate change. Our results show that the regression model emulates well HadCM3L-simulated temporal evolution and spatial distribution of climate change, including surface temperature, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, cloudiness, and radiative fluxes under transient CO2 and/or solar forcing scenarios. Our findings suggest that temporal and spatial patterns of total change for the climate variables considered here can be represented well by the sum of fast response and slow feedback. Furthermore, by using a simple 1-D heat-diffusion climate model, we show that the temporal and spatial characteristics of climate change under transient forcing scenarios can be emulated well using information from step-forcing simulations alone.

Simulated long-term climate response to idealized solar geoengineering

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a potential means to counteract anthropogenic climate change, yet it is unknown how such climate intervention might affect the Earth's climate on the millennial time scale. Here we use the HadCM3L model to conduct a 1000year sunshade geoengineering simulation in which solar irradiance is uniformly reduced by 4% to approximately offset global mean warming from an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. During the 1000year period, modeled global climate, including temperature, hydrological cycle, and ocean circulation of the high-CO2 simulation departs substantially from that of the control preindustrial simulation, whereas the climate of the geoengineering simulation remains much closer to that of the preindustrial state with little drift. The results of our study do not support the hypothesis that nonlinearities in the climate system would cause substantial drift in the climate system if solar geoengineering was to be deployed on the timescale of a millennium.