Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall

The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of putative regulatory motifs in the upstream regions of co-expressed functional groups of genes in Plasmodium falciparum

Background: Regulation of gene expression in Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) remains poorly understood. While over half the genes are estimated to be regulated at the transcriptional level, few regulatory motifs and transcription regulators have been found. Results: The study seeks to identify putative regulatory motifs in the upstream regions of 13 functional groups of genes expressed in the intraerythrocytic developmental cycle of Pf. Three motif-discovery programs were used for the purpose, and motifs were searched for only on the gene coding strand. Four motifs – the 'G-rich', the 'C-rich', the 'TGTG' and the 'CACA' motifs – were identified, and zero to all four of these occur in the 13 sets of upstream regions. The 'CACA motif' was absent in functional groups expressed during the ring to early trophozoite transition. For functional groups expressed in each transition, the motifs tended to be similar. Upstream motifs in some functional groups showed 'positional conservation' by occurring at similar positions relative to the translational start site (TLS); this increases their significance as regulatory motifs. In the ribonucleotide synthesis, mitochondrial, proteasome and organellar translation machinery genes, G-rich, C-rich, CACA and TGTG motifs, respectively, occur with striking positional conservation. In the organellar translation machinery group, G-rich motifs occur close to the TLS. The same motifs were sometimes identified for multiple functional groups; differences in location and abundance of the motifs appear to ensure different modes of action. Conclusion: The identification of positionally conserved over-represented upstream motifs throws light on putative regulatory elements for transcription in Pf.

Ocean atmosphere coupling over monsoon regions

In monsoon regions, the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is manifested as a seasonal reversal of winds. Most of the summer monsoon rainfall over India occurs owing to synoptic and large-scale convection associated with the continental ITCZ (Fig. 1). We have investigated the interaction between these large-scale convective systems and the ocean over which they are generated1â3, concentrating on the relationship between organized convection over the Indian Ocean and sea surface temperature (SST). We report here that on a monthly basis the degree of cloudiness correlates well with SST for the relatively colder oceans, but when SST is maintained above 28 °C it ceases to be an important factor in determining the variability of cloudiness. Over the major regions of convection east of 70°E, which are warm year after year, the observed cloudiness cannot be correlated with variations in SST.

Genetic analysis of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype A of Indian origin and detection of positive selection and recombination in leader protease- and capsid-coding regions

The leader protease (L-pro) and capsid-coding sequences (P1) constitute approximately 3 kb of the foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). We studied the phylogenetic relationship of 46 FMDV serotype A isolates of Indian origin collected during the period 1968-2005 and also eight vaccine strains using the neighbour-joining tree and Bayesian tree methods. The viruses were categorized under three major groups - Asian, Euro-South American and European. The Indian isolates formed a distinct genetic group among the Asian isolates. The Indian isolates were further classified into different genetic subgroups (<5% divergence). Post-1995 isolates were divided into two subgroups while a few isolates which originated in the year 2005 from Andhra Pradesh formed a separate group. These isolates were closely related to the isolates of the 1970s. The FMDV isolates seem to undergo reverse mutation or onvergent evolution wherein sequences identical to the ancestors are present in the isolates in circulation. The eight vaccine strains included in the study were not related to each other and belonged to different genetic groups. Recombination was detected in the L-pro region in one isolate (A IND 20/82) and in the VP1 coding 1D region in another isolate (A RAJ 21/96). Positive selection was identified at aa positions 23 in the L-pro (P<0.05; 0.046*) and at aa 171 in the capsid protein VP1 (P<0.01; 0.003**).

Evidence of episodic brittle faulting in the cratonic part of the Peninsular India and its implications for seismic hazard in slow deforming regions

The region around Waclakkancheri, in the province of Kerala, India, which lies in the vicinity of Palghat-Cauvery ;hear zone (within the Precambrian crystalline terrain), has been a site of microseismic activity since 1989. Earlier studies had identified a prominent WNW-ESE structure overprinting on the E-W trending lineaments associated with Palghat-Cauvery shear zone. We have mapped this structure, located in a chamockite quarry near Desamangalam, Waclakkancheri, which we identify as a ca. 30 km-long south dipping reverse fault. This article presents the characteristics of this fault zone exposed on the exhumed crystalline basement and discusses its significance in understanding the earthquake potential of the region. This brittle deformation zone consists of fracture sets with small-scale displacement and slip planes with embedded fault gouges. The macroscopic as well as the microscopic studies of this fault zone indicate that it evolved through different episodes of faulting in the presence of fluids. The distinct zones within consolidated gouge and the cross cutting relationship of fractures indicate episodic fault activity. At least four faulting episodes can be recognized based on the sequential development of different structural elements in the fault rocks. The repeated ruptures are evident along this shear zone and the cyclic behavior of this fault consists of co-seismic ruptures alternating with inter-seismic periods, which is characterized by the sealed fractures and consolidated gouge. The fault zone shows a minimum accumulated dip/oblique slip of 2.1 m in the reverse direction with a possible characteristic slip of 52 cm (for each event). The ESR dating of fault gouge indicates that the deformation zone records a major event in the Middle Quaternary. The empirical relationships between fault length and slip show that this fault may generate events M >= 6. The above factors suggest that this fault may be characterized as potentially active. Our study offers some new pointers that can be used in other slow deforming cratonic hinterlands in exploring the discrete active faults.

A thymine-related mutation system in immunoglobulin variable regions

Abstract is not available.

Mapping of assembled epitopic regions of human chorionic gonadotropin reveals proximity of CTP alpha to the determinant loop beta 93-100

Three overlapping assembled epitopes of beta hCG have been mapped using MAb probes and a single step solid phase radioimmunoassay. These epitopes have been shown to be at receptor binding region comprising of the loop region beta Cys93-Cys100. Importance of disulphide bonds in maintaining integrity of these epitopes is assessed. Two MAbs (INN 58 and INN 22) interact with the beta region as well as the alpha C-terminal peptide, while the other MAb INN 24 interacts with only the beta region. Cross-reactivity pattern with beta hCG and hLH as web as the reported crystal structure of hCG substantiates the epitope identification. The results demonstrate utility of MAbs as probes in investigations on three-dimensional structure of gonadatropins.

Designing Dense Radar Networks for Weather Surveillance in Tropical Regions.

Design considerations are presented for a dense weather radar network to support multiple services including aviation. Conflicts, tradeoffs and optimization issues in the context of operation in a tropical region are brought out. The upcoming Indian radar network is used as a case study. Algorithms for data mosaicing are briefly outlined.

Spatial and vertical heterogeneities in aerosol properties over oceanic regions around India: Implications for radiative forcing

The influence of atmospheric aerosols on Earth's radiation budget and hence climate, though well recognized and extensively investigated in recent years, remains largely uncertain mainly because of the large spatio-temporal heterogeneity and the lack of data with adequate resolution. To characterize this diversity, a major multi-platform field campaign ICARB (Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget) was carried out during the pre-monsoon period of 2006 over the Indian landmass and surrounding oceans, which was the biggest such campaign ever conducted over this region. Based on the extensive and concurrent measurements of the optical and physical properties of atmospheric aerosols during ICARB, the spatial distribution of aerosol radiative forcing was estimated over the entire Bay of Bengal (BoB), northern Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea (AS) as well as large spatial variations within these regions. Besides being considerably lower than the mean values reported earlier for this region, our studies have revealed large differences in the forcing components between the BoB and the AS. While the regionally averaged aerosol-induced atmospheric forcing efficiency was 31 +/- 6 W m(-2) tau(-1) for the BoB, it was only similar to 18 +/- 7 W m(-2) tau(-1) for the AS. Airborne measurements revealed the presence of strong, elevated aerosol layers even over the oceans, leading to vertical structures in the atmospheric forcing, resulting in significant warming in the lower troposphere. These observations suggest serious climate implications and raise issues ranging from the impact of aerosols on vertical thermal structure of the atmospheric and hence cloud formation processes to monsoon circulation.

A theoretical model for the magnetic helicity of solar active regions

Active regions on the solar surface are known to possess magnetic helicity, which is predominantly negative in the northern hemisphere and positive in the southern hemisphere. Choudhuri et al. [Choudhuri, A.R. On the connection between mean field dynamo theory and flux tubes. Solar Phys. 215, 31–55, 2003] proposed that the magnetic helicity arises due to the wrapping up of the poloidal field of the convection zone around rising flux tubes which form active regions. Choudhuri [Choudhuri, A.R., Chatterjee, P., Nandy, D. Helicity of solar active regions from a dynamo model. ApJ 615, L57–L60, 2004] used this idea to calculate magnetic helicity from their solar dynamo model. Apart from getting broad agreements with observational data, they also predict that the hemispheric helicity rule may be violated at the beginning of a solar cycle. Chatterjee et al. [Chatterjee, P., Choudhuri, A.R., Petrovay, K. Development of twist in an emerging magnetic flux tube by poloidal field accretion. A&A 449, 781–789, 2006] study the penetration of the wrapped poloidal field into the rising flux tube due to turbulent diffusion using a simple 1-d model. They find that the extent of penetration of the wrapped field will depend on how weak the magnetic field inside the rising flux tube becomes before its emergence. They conclude that more detailed observational data will throw light on the physical conditions of flux tubes just before their emergence to the photosphere.

Critical lattice size limit for synchronized chaotic state in one- and two-dimensional diffusively coupled map lattices

We consider diffusively coupled map lattices with P neighbors (where P is arbitrary) and study the stability of the synchronized state. We show that there exists a critical lattice size beyond which the synchronized state is unstable. This generalizes earlier results for nearest neighbor coupling. We confirm the analytical results by performing numerical simulations on coupled map lattices with logistic map at each node. The above analysis is also extended to two-dimensional P-neighbor diffusively coupled map lattices.

Systematic study on crystal-contact engineering of diphthine synthase: influence of mutations at crystal-packing regions on X-ray diffraction quality

It is well known that protein crystallizability can be influenced by site-directed mutagenesis of residues on the molecular surface of proteins, indicating that the intermolecular interactions in crystal-packing regions may play a crucial role in the structural regularity at atomic resolution of protein crystals. Here, a systematic examination was made of the improvement in the diffraction resolution of protein crystals on introducing a single mutation of a crystal-packing residue in order to provide more favourable packing interactions, using diphthine synthase from Pyrococcus horikoshii OT3 as a model system. All of a total of 21 designed mutants at 13 different crystal-packing residues yielded almost isomorphous crystals from the same crystallization conditions as those used for the wild-type crystals, which diffracted X-rays to 2.1 angstrom resolution. Of the 21 mutants, eight provided crystals with an improved resolution of 1.8 angstrom or better. Thus, it has been clarified that crystal quality can be improved by introducing a suitable single mutation of a crystal-packing residue. In the improved crystals, more intimate crystal-packing interactions than those in the wild-type crystal are observed. Notably, the mutants K49R and T146R yielded crystals with outstandingly improved resolutions of 1.5 and 1.6 angstrom, respectively, in which a large-scale rearrangement of packing interactions was unexpectedly observed despite the retention of the same isomorphous crystal form. In contrast, the mutants that provided results that were in good agreement with the designed putative structures tended to achieve only moderate improvements in resolution of up to 1.75 angstrom. These results suggest a difficulty in the rational prediction of highly effective mutations in crystal engineering.

Identification of protein interaction regions of VINC/NEAT1/Men epsilon RNA

The virus inducible non-coding RNA (VINC) was detected initially in the brain of mice infected with Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and rabies virus. VINC is also known as NEAT1 or Men epsilon RNA. It is localized in the nuclear paraspeckles of several murine as well as human cell lines and is essential for paraspeckle formation. We demonstrate that VINC interacts with the paraspeckle protein, P54nrb through three different protein interaction regions (PIRs) one of which (PIR-1) is localized near the 50 end while the other two (PIR-2, PIR-3) are localized near the 30 region of VINC. Our studies suggest that VINC may interact with P54nrb through a novel mechanism which is different from that reported for protein coding RNAs. (C) 2010 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Sensor network deployment for agronomical data gathering in semi-arid regions

We share our experience in planning, designing and deploying a wireless sensor network of one square kilometre area. Environmental data such as soil moisture, temperature, barometric pressure, and relative humidity are collected in this area situated in the semi-arid region of Karnataka, India. It is a hope that information derived from this data will benefit the marginal farmer towards improving his farming practices. Soon after establishing the need for such a project, we begin by showing the big picture of such a data gathering network, the software architecture we have used, the range measurements needed for determining the sensor density, and the packaging issues that seem to play a crucial role in field deployments. Our field deployment experiences include designing with intermittent grid power, enhancing software tools to aid quicker and effective deployment, and flash memory corruption. The first results on data gathering look encouraging.